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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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9 minutes ago, john2000 said:

the fact that we dont even know how it will end up other than a range of around 400 + dom , and 950-1bill, and people still bitching about it, like what ? let me ask you this question, how many of you thought that ts4 would make 1.3 bill ? close to zero, how many thought, that it would make 1,2 ? close to zero, the expectations were 900-1.1 bill from most people, the difference was that some believed, higher dom, and lesser os, while it will be the other way around, so ts4, will make withing the expected range, but with a different split, , but people keep saying, i mean wtf....

Technically, if it hadn't been for that crazy 24h presales, this number will be totally fine.

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1 minute ago, wildphantom said:

I think we’re all forgetting just how much of a shock it was when Toy Story 3 stormed past $400 million. 

It was way more money and attendance than we’d seen for an animated film since Shrek 2. 

 

Toy Story 4, a few months back, had most on here proclaiming $350 million as the ceiling. Just because it’s had a rapturous reception, that doesn’t mean there’s the same kind of demand as there was for the apparent ending that TS3 was. 

 

The movie is doing really well. 

I2 and FD were massively anticipated sequels to beloved films, with the former also being a superhero film - bringing out a key demograph. 

 

I think we need to look at our expectations. This is going to end up being one of Pixar’s most successful films and it’s the fourth one in the franchise. 

 

$115-120 million OW for an animated film with the whole summer left to play is by no means a disappointment.  It’s an excellent start and we’ll see where it heads in the coming weeks.  

but yeah i agree

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1 minute ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

Technically, if it hadn't been for that crazy 24h presales, this number will be totally fine.

that was for one day though, after that it wasnt even close to i2

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21 minutes ago, VENOM said:

Because nobody asked for it, there’s only so many times you can trick an audience into seeing something they don’t really care for 

I assume you didn’t want to see it because you knew how bad it would be for you because of it’s existence?

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Posted (edited)

 

Edited by sfran43
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1 hour ago, miketheavenger said:

I think we can say that since everybody in the industry seemed to think TS4 would open to $140m+, this opening weekend is an underperformance. However, that doesn't mean that the movie is a flop or a disappointment because that $140m is just one random mark that these people set for this movie to be a success for them when in reality opening with $120m will also make it a big success.

Do you actually think Disney is gonna be disappointed with this start? Of course, they would've loved for TS4 to crush records, they always want every movie to make as much as it possibly can. But they also know that that is wishful thinking and that sometimes movies are gonna miss expectations. But again, missing expectations and flopping/underperforming are two very different things.

 

VERY well said. TS4 hittin $120 m instead of $140 m, knowing it will still have strong legs, is disappointing but not worth losing sleep over. I am SURE they were much more disappointed in what happened with Solo than with this. Solo was a completely different situation. I am sure that Illumination is MUCH MUCH more devastated by what is going on with Pets2 or even WB feeling distraught over DPika than Disney will be with TS4. There have been a LOT more "bombs" this year than this (which isn't even close to being a failure). And couple that with the fact that Aladdin will almost double the last projections, they will be very happy. Godzilla, Lego2, DPika, Pets2.....those movies were FAR below expectations and can be seen as either failures or mini-bombs (at least franchise killing/hurting films). And Disney could pretty much write off Dumbo because THAT movie bombed. But TS4? Not so much. Not when it will probably end up between $420 m-$440 m domestic and probably reach right around $1 billion WW.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

I thought the movie was just ok, but I wish it did better so they could have another “stab” at it. 

 

Budget was only $10m though. 

Edited by Krissykins

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19 minutes ago, jedijake said:

DPika .....those movies were FAR below expectations and can be seen as either failures or mini-bombs (at least franchise killing/hurting films)

Look I’m going to save everyone the trouble when a certain someone comes but Pika while a major underperformer and I admit I overpredicted it massively, I wouldn’t write off as a failure or mini bomb as it almost tripled it’s budget. But I do agree that a sequel to it won’t do stellar numbers.

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54 minutes ago, Damianport1 said:

It's big disappointment. let's face it. It was expected to do 160-200. 100-110 is just bad.

 

I don't get it. The film has amazing reviews. Everyone says its great. Why people don't watch good movies? The world is not in good place right now.

Well you don't have to worry because it isn't landing between $100-$110 million. Not sure where you got that number from.

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Here's the bottom line.

 

Is it an underperformance on opening weekend - absolutely. disney put a number of 140 out there. They seldom over estimate their movies.

There's no way to spin this as anything other than an OW underperformance when it comes in below both the industry and studio expectations.

 

Is it a failure or bomb or anything like that. Absolutely not, and anyone who thinks that isn't thinking rationally.

 

It is going to be the third highest opening weekend ever for a Pixar film (I2, FD and TS3 are the only other Pixar films to open above 100M).

It's likely to be the third highest grossing DOM and Top 5 WW Pixar film.  With more than 20 films that is still an impressive achievement.

By any metric - critic and audience reception, total DOM and WW - it is going to be a huge hit. One of the top 6 or 7 movies of the year.

So it can be both an OW underperformin and still a huge success story. Disney will make so much money off this film - beyond BO they will make money in the Theme Parks and toy stores I suspect they will laugh all the way to the bank.

 

 

Alot of the posters on this board are just starved for something to overperform expectations since the last movie to do that is Aladdin (which prior to release was a relatively reviled film on this board so I think there are likely posters who are disappointed that it is the one that broke out). Before that it was AE. Alot of this is simply there haven't been alot of good BO stories this year. Most movies have not lived up to expectations in terms of BO.

 

 

 

 

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I wish Child's Play did better... but at least the budget was low. And maybe it can do OK business overseas, so as long as it goes over $60m worldwide it should be alright, but the prospects for a sequel might be iffy, who knows...

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I am honestly stunned that some of you who have been here for a long time are seriously calling the opening weekend a disappointment for toy Story 4. Projections predictions tracking, it's all arbitrary. Nobody can actually know what a movie is going to open to. And why would arbitrary numbers given out by trades and studios be more important and more trustworthy and more relevant then what the last film did? Toy Story is a huge property but it didn't blow up until toy Story 3 came out. And that one had a definitive ending. I simply don't see why toy Story 4 was ever predicted to open to those godly numbers that some people had them at.

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Toy Story 4 is gonna have great WOM. It can still do $400M+.

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Toy Story 4 Summer Game Opening Weekend Predictions 

 

Ms Lady Hawk 185

AndyLL 132

Empire 126

glassfairy 125

captainwondyful 124

Infernus 120

Mike Hunt 120

NannerManCan 120

ZeeSoh 120

Sheikh 119.52

Chasmmi 115

Wrath 114

MovieMan89 111

Panamovie 110.9

CoolEric258 110

Fancyarcher 110

MrPink 110

24Lost 109

bcf26 108

Jake Gittes 107

WrathOfHan 105

Cmasterclay 104

BobDole 101

Simionski 100

JJ8 95.3

Kalo 90

kayumanggi 85

Panda 80

 

Credit to @Wrath for collecting that. Make your own mind up on what that tells you.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Toy Story 4 is gonna have great WOM. It can still do $400M+.

$400 million isn't in question. $420-$430 million should be the target.

Edited by jedijake

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2 minutes ago, Sheikh said:

Toy Story 4 Summer Game Opening Weekend Predictions 

 

Ms Lady Hawk 185

AndyLL 132

Empire 126

glassfairy 125

captainwondyful 124

Infernus 120

Mike Hunt 120

NannerManCan 120

ZeeSoh 120

Sheikh 119.52

Chasmmi 115

Wrath 114

MovieMan89 111

Panamovie 110.9

CoolEric258 110

Fancyarcher 110

MrPink 110

24Lost 109

bcf26 108

Jake Gittes 107

WrathOfHan 105

Cmasterclay 104

BobDole 101

Simionski 100

JJ8 95.3

Kalo 90

kayumanggi 85

Panda 80

 

Credit to @Wrath for collecting that. Make your own mind up on what that tells you.

That most predictions were inline and even under

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16 minutes ago, baumer said:

I am honestly stunned that some of you who have been here for a long time are seriously calling the opening weekend a disappointment for toy Story 4. Projections predictions tracking, it's all arbitrary. Nobody can actually know what a movie is going to open to. And why would arbitrary numbers given out by trades and studios be more important and more trustworthy and more relevant then what the last film did? Toy Story is a huge property but it didn't blow up until toy Story 3 came out. And that one had a definitive ending. I simply don't see why toy Story 4 was ever predicted to open to those godly numbers that some people had them at.

Agree. Those defending what they’re saying consistently using ‘Disney said they were expecting $140 million’ is getting tiresome. 

 

People would have been proclaiming $120 million a superb OW for this a month ago. 

 

It’s like Deadline and boxofficepro now dictate the conversation on here now, rather than experience and logic. 

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9 minutes ago, DAR said:

That most predictions were inline and even under

So it met or exceeded the expectations of nearly everybody playing the summer game - yet it’s a disappointment? 🤣

 

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I believe that a lot (us included) all thought with recent down weeks TS4 would save the market. Ie. the public was waiting for this. I think even late tracking picked this up inc Disney hence the apparent disappointment. However a month ago most had this pegged around 120m at best with some sub 100m out there. The 150m-200m predictions really didn’t hit till after Alladdin blew up. 

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21 minutes ago, Sheikh said:

Toy Story 4 Summer Game Opening Weekend Predictions 

 

Ms Lady Hawk 185

AndyLL 132

Empire 126

glassfairy 125

captainwondyful 124

Infernus 120

Mike Hunt 120

NannerManCan 120

ZeeSoh 120

Sheikh 119.52

Chasmmi 115

Wrath 114

MovieMan89 111

Panamovie 110.9

CoolEric258 110

Fancyarcher 110

MrPink 110

24Lost 109

bcf26 108

Jake Gittes 107

WrathOfHan 105

Cmasterclay 104

BobDole 101

Simionski 100

JJ8 95.3

Kalo 90

kayumanggi 85

Panda 80

 

Credit to @Wrath for collecting that. Make your own mind up on what that tells you.

Congrats to Chasmmi and Wrath, the nearest.

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