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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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Posted (edited)

So on a box office forum you can’t call a film that made less than every major prediction and even the studio an underperformer? Pretty funny

 

 

of course there is still a chance TS4 could Make up for it with strong legs

Edited by John Marston
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Godzilla will struggle to make what TS4 will make on its opening week. That is some perspective as to what constitutes a true box office disappointment. I thought this summer would shatter box office records. WRONG! 

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Just now, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Godzilla will struggle to make what TS4 will make on its opening week. That is some perspective as to what constitutes a true box office disappointment. I thought this summer would shatter box office records. WRONG! 

No one is saying TS4 is a disappointment. Why do you keep equating disappointment with underperformance?

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3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

So if Endgame made only 1 billion then it would have all been fine because “most studios would kill for a number like that”?

Given Pixar's highest grossing films worldwide made 1.24B, 1.07B and 1.03B, that's an awkward comparison.

 

Marvel Studios Avengers movies had movies with 2.05B, 1.52B, 1.41B prior to Endgame. Already demostrated much higher ceilings for their mega releases. 

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3 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

that's a ridiculous comparison because Infinity Wars already set the bar for what endgame should make. Toy Story 3 made right around a billion dollars so if toy Story makes that then it's considered  a success. Not that hard to figure out John and you should know this because you've been here long enough.

It made a billion 9 years ago and was even in the all time worldwide top ten. It's very obvious that the comparison has validity.

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7 hours ago, The GOAT said:

Seems like every movie this summer is flopping except for Rocketman, which is expected bc it's the best wide release film of the year.

Toy Story 4 is not flopping.

 

wrong richard attenborough GIF

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2 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

BoT would be a lot more positive if everyone thought like you. However, would you call “very close to a billion” a success for, say, Endgame? For TLK? For TROS? For Avatar 2? I think studio expectations are a reasonable benchmark.   Toy Story 4 isn’t flopping, and it may have very long legs (there is no sense of urgency to see it), but the weekend is certainly underwhelming.

 

Endgame is the sequel to a $2 billion grosser 

TROS is the sequel to a $1.3 billion grosser

Avatar 2 is the sequel to a $2.7 billion grosser

 

TS4 is the sequel to a $1.06 billion grosser and will likely finish in that neighbourhood. 

 

Not sure what your point is as all of the films you mentioned are sequels to bigger movies. If they do close to or exceed what their predecessors did then they’re major hits (as EG has already done)

I’m sure baumer will say the same as I’ve done - pointing out the obvious here. 

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Posted (edited)

The reason why loads of people expected more for Toy Story 4 is because of not just the huge fan base of the first three, the huge marketing  blitz, and amazing reviews but because this summer has sucked with so many flops and it seemed like it had everything going for it to really explode. So it’s understandable that some feel like some money has been left on the table 

Edited by John Marston
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1 minute ago, DisposedData said:

It made a billion 9 years ago and was even in the all time worldwide top ten. It's very obvious that the comparison has validity.

But it was THE END. As is being repeatedly pointed out! 

This fourth one is almost uncharted waters for a franchise that was done. 

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At 350 dom TS4's theatrical returns will be 192.5 (using 55%, Disney could be getting more) on an estimated 175-200 prod budget. So even taking the higher end of that range it will recover the prod budget via dom itself. Few tentpoles do that. And am being conservative with the legs. Could do 375+.

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, wildphantom said:

 

Endgame is the sequel to a $2 billion grosser 

TROS is the sequel to a $1.3 billion grosser

Avatar 2 is the sequel to a $2.7 billion grosser

 

TS4 is the sequel to a $1.06 billion grosser and will likely finish in that neighbourhood. 

 

Not sure what your point is as all of the films you mentioned are sequels to bigger movies. If they do close to or exceed what their predecessors did then they’re major hits (as EG has already done)

I’m sure baumer will say the same as I’ve done - pointing out the obvious here. 

Yeah but you and baumer seem to keep purposely ignoring the fact that a billion grosser today (if even) and a billion grosser nearly ten years ago are two very different beasts.

Edited by DisposedData

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7 minutes ago, John Marston said:

So if Endgame made only 1 billion then it would have all been fine because “most studios would kill for a number like that”?

What kind of nonsense analogy is this? The TS franchise's largest gross is TS3's $1.067B. If TS4 grosses $1B, or even $900M then it would be completely fine.

 

Now, let's look at the Avengers movies. The first three grossed $1.52B, $1.41B, and $2.05B. Now, if EG just grossed $1B, will you be happy? Nope. Because it dropped a huge 50% from the last film.

 

See? Different situations. I'm so stunned that you have the guts to compare TS and Avengers.

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2 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

 

Endgame is the sequel to a $2 billion grosser 

TROS is the sequel to a $1.3 billion grosser

Avatar 2 is the sequel to a $2.7 billion grosser

 

TS4 is the sequel to a $1.06 billion grosser and will likely finish in that neighbourhood. 

 

Not sure what your point is as all of the films you mentioned are sequels to bigger movies. If they do close to or exceed what their predecessors did then they’re major hits (as EG has already done)

I’m sure baumer will say the same as I’ve done - pointing out the obvious here. 

Not sure Ts4 will reach a billion or close. Hope it does 

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3 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

No one is saying TS4 is a disappointment. Why do you keep equating disappointment with underperformance?

Wouldn’t it follow that one would be disappointed with an underperformance? Six of one and half a dozen of another. 

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Phantom Menace’s 1999 run didn’t beat the original Star Wars from 1977!!! What an underperformer. 

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11 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

BoT would be a lot more positive if everyone thought like you. However, would you call “very close to a billion” a success for, say, Endgame? For TLK? For TROS? For Avatar 2? I think studio expectations are a reasonable benchmark.   Toy Story 4 isn’t flopping, and it may have very long legs (there is no sense of urgency to see it), but the weekend is certainly underwhelming.

I have the same answer to this. Would you be happy if EG grossed $1B?. No, because it's a huge 50% drop from IW.

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Disney 2015: AOU is a failure

Disney 2017: TLJ is a failure

Disney 2019: TS4 is a...

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1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said:

Disney 2015: AOU is a failure

Disney 2017: TLJ is a failure

Disney 2019: TS4 is a...

Can't wait for Disney 2021: The Little Mermaid is a failure.

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

Yeah but you and baumer seem to keep purposely ignoring the fact that a billion grosser today (if even) and a billion grosser nearly ten years ago are two very different beasts.

But does theatrical movies from 10 ten years ago  have to contend from comfort of just watching movies at home from streaming services? Have you not heard of the dire situation the theatrical industry is in today? Different times, different situations. And you also seem to forget that ER's are so much better for Hollywood movies 10 years ago.

Edited by UserHN

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