Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

[JohnnyGossamer]

Trolls posting here are like Frank from Always Sunny. Abrasive, brash, unrelenting but lovable. And, been around for a long while. Don't sweat 'em.

[UserHN]

14 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Absolutely. Opening lower than all trade predictions is bad. End of discussion 

You could be disappointed for as long as you could. You could consider it underperformance based on your expectations. But how the freak is $120M considered BAD? Are you hearing yourself right now? Or are all the movies that you liked opened to $150M+ that's why you call $120M bad?

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

Just now, John Marston said:

Toy Story 3 apparently made 80% of its gross in 3D. Take that out and it sold less tickets than TS2

So by that calculation TS4 isn't really going to be a disappointment then, considering it's very likely to do at least 120m+ this weekend?

[John Marston]

2 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Okay this is the first post by you where I’m starting to think you’re joking.

 

JW/I2 came out in 2015 and 2018. Before Avengers in 2012 $600M was unheard of outside of James Cameron films. Even The Dark Knight didn’t finish within shouting distance of it lol

Actually I’m not. I remember in May 2009 after the teaser erased going on IMDb and saying TS3 could likely be the one to beat Titanic and many people agreed lol 

[MrPink]

People do need to take in the perspective that a 4th film generally tends to pay their dues, hence why so many people were expecting a drop until a few weeks ago or so when the presales started.

[John Marston]

2 minutes ago, UserHN said:

You could be disappointed for as long as you could. You could consider it underperformance based on your expectations. But how the freak is $120M considered BAD? Are you hearing yourself right now? Or are all the movies that you liked opened to $150M+ that's why you call $120M bad?

Bad for a movie that has everything going for it (weak summer, amazing reviews, following three loved films)

[filmlover]

Next year is gonna be rough on this place when we'll be lucky to have a $400M+ grosser after multiple $500M/600M+ grossers over the past 3-4 years.

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Actually I’m not. I remember in May 2009 after the teaser erased going on IMDb and saying TS3 could likely be the one to beat Titanic and many people agreed lol 

And yet TS3's performance somehow didn't lead you to revise your expectations for TS4? Especially, as you mentioned, how heavily it benefitted from 3D ticket sales? 

 

Somewhat confused here.

[superduperm]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Actually I’m not. I remember in May 2009 after the teaser erased going on IMDb and saying TS3 could likely be the one to beat Titanic and many people agreed lol 

And when the TS4 and Pika teasers dropped on the same day there were people in YouTube comments saying Pika would destroy TS4.

 

What’s your point?

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Bad for a movie that has everything going for it (weak summer, amazing reviews, following three loved films)

But it really isn't performing that differently (a slight dip adjusted) from TS3 from initial reports, so I don't understand how this is bad? Maybe personally disappointing but even if it goes on the low end for the weekend and has weaker legs for a Pixar, it's still getting to high-300s at the worst.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Just now, Jayhawk said:

But it really isn't performing that differently (a slight dip adjusted) from TS3 from initial reports, so I don't understand how this is bad? Maybe personally disappointing but even if it goes on the low end for the weekend and has weaker legs for a Pixar, it's still getting to high-300s at the worst.

This.

[DAR]

There comes a point where some people’s schtick is just old and tiresome 

[UserHN]

2 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

But it really isn't performing that differently (a slight dip adjusted) from TS3 from initial reports, so I don't understand how this is bad? Maybe personally disappointing but even if it goes on the low end for the weekend and has weaker legs for a Pixar, it's still getting to high-300s at the worst.

Exactly.

[superduperm]

I’ll admit, I was disappointed when this number came out and I was disappointed to see Charlie confirm it this morning.

 

But guys... it’s a preview number! We can’t possibly determine its final gross off a preview number like come on lol

 

For all we know this could be less frontloaded than Finding Dory. I doubt it but we’ll see.

[UserHN]

Just now, superduperm said:

I’ll admit, I was disappointed when this number came out and I was disappointed to see Charlie confirm it this morning.

 

But guys... it’s a preview number! We can’t possibly determine its final gross off a preview number like come on lol

 

For all we know this could be less frontloaded than Finding Dory. I doubt it but we’ll see.

Charlie's early estimates for true Friday is 38M-40M. So take $140M off the table. Still a good number though.

[jedijake]

15 minutes ago, UserHN said:

You could be disappointed for as long as you could. You could consider it underperformance based on your expectations. But how the freak is $120M considered BAD? Are you hearing yourself right now? Or are all the movies that you liked opened to $150M+ that's why you call $120M bad?

How is $120 million opening for TS4 NOT bad?

 

But I think the better question is how is $120 million even considered at all?

Edited June 21, 2019 by jedijake

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

I guess Charlie's early estimates put it right around (slightly under maybe) Dory's OW?

[superduperm]

1 minute ago, UserHN said:

Charlie's early estimates for true Friday is 38M-40M. So take $140M off the table. Still a good number though.

I like Charlie but it’s not even 10:30 AM on the east. Give me a break.

[RealLyre]

why are we already talking in the 120M OW range? if the previews are 12-13 then 140M-150M should still be very possible.

 

Spoiler

unless TS4 proves to be front-loaded over the weekend but I don't think it will be 

 

[RealLyre]

3 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Charlie's early estimates for true Friday is 38M-40M. So take $140M off the table. Still a good number though.

where did he post his estimate?