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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Dolby and IMAX prices have went up but Avatar was $15 for IMAX 10 years ago. Blockbuster films have done better but independent films are getting crushed.

 

This year is riddled with failures already and it's June.

I agree with you on this, independent or mid-sized drama film are getting crushed by the rise of online streaming and the taste of people simply refuse to see non-VFX extravaganza. 

 

But we are talking the blockbusters now, they are reaching the certain threshold like 1b or 1.5b or 2b easier than their counterpart.

You can feel the hype when Jurassic Park or 1st HP hit 900m or The lion king hit 700m but today we have plenty "quiet" 1b grosser like JW:FK , TF4. 

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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

And underperformance doesn't mean a disappointment. And I gave you the official meaning of what an underperformance is but you keep repeating the same thing. These arbitrary numbers are still expectations and whether a movie is underperforming or overperforming are based on expectations and you can't change that. 

Official meaning...

 

it depends in my POV if an estimate is based on something actually measurable or not.

E.g. weather can play a lot into a certain weekend's/day's performance per blocked streets in winter or the wish to get outside e.g. after a longer rainy phase, to enjoy the first warm sunny weather. Or like here in my country, where the most stay at home if its getting hot to really hot (like to expect starting this week for a month acc to news with a 'century'-hot June)

Or news, like then the shooting in a cinema or what ever.

 

E.g. fashion $ expectation are for a season, BO for a certain day are far less 'sure' in my POV

 

Under-performing is a term that depends also a lot on how it is used per industry version (e.g. computer use/sales/...., wood mills/forest, farmer, fashion, sport,....), its far too differing in reality than an ~ general entry into a ~ wordbook.

 

One detail seems to get mostly missed I think.

Disney mostly underestimates. But not always. Its not gods law.

Plus, after the merger, we do not even know who actually did the estimates, there are some new people included at once that might need still a bit of time to adjust. Only as one idea of many possibilities why an OW might not meet certain expectations.

 

 

For me personally under-performing is not simple like not reaching estimates, its a cool headed look at budget, genre, time of year,.... and results. As in final results. I never took and take too much into the performance of a certain day/weekend in a certain country, for me its all ww finals, the splits per regions (meant as how much the distributors get per region) and so on.

An estimate not reached: first look at how much did it actually reach? How does that relate to the usual reached $ for a certain genre/studio/film maker.... or whatever.

 

Its like results in an exam, if it was expected a certain pupils will reach 100% (and acc to the summer game it looks like $140m would have been 110-120% of/from the most) and reaches 90-95% its still a very good result.

If it reaches 60% or less, than I'd speak from under-performing, assuming the estimates were based on a cool headed estimation in the first place.

 

Btw, I do not watch animated... at all, but hoped to be able to return to BOT without all those not needed bickering like - in my POV - what went way overboard this year, see A:EG....

 

 

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Now it is up to Shrek 5 to be the first $200m animation opener.

 

I don't see Frozen 2 a contender.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I agree with you on this, independent or mid-sized drama film are getting crushed by the rise of online streaming and the taste of people simply refuse to see non-VFX extravaganza. 

 

But we are talking the blockbusters now, they are reaching the certain threshold like 1b or 1.5b or 2b easier than their counterpart.

You can feel the hype when Jurassic Park or 1st HP hit 900m or The lion king hit 700m but today we have plenty "quiet" 1b grosser like JW:FK , TF4. 

TS4 isn't a great example. Tons of work went into that to maybe barely outdo TS3 or perhaps do worse.

 

SLOP 1 did over 800, SLOP 2 will do like 350 or less.

Edited by cdsacken

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Actually, TS4's OW likely edges ahead of TS3's in admissions. 60% 3D share for TS3's OW was reported. Using $11 as average 3D ticket price in 2010 to subtract the 3D inflation out and then adjusting the new number to 2019 prices, we get an OW around $104m for TS3. TS4 maybe has 15% 3D share this weekend (if even that honestly), so using $12 as an average 2019 3D ticket price, it adjusts down to about $112m. So it probably sold more admissions. 

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19 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

In fact....I’ve gone back and checked. 

TS3 opened in the U.K. on a Monday (19th July 2010)

 

Its opening weekend was $32.7 million - which equates to about $26 million at today’s exchange rate. That weekend included four extra days of summer weekdays with no school.  A 7-day opening. 

 

So TS4’s Fri-Sun of $15 million (which would have been $16 million at 2010 rates) is pretty terrific actually. 

@John Marston there's your answer.

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26 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

That make me wonder then in domestically how we have 7 movies passed 600m threshold in the post 2015-era while we had only Avatar passed 600m in 00s and Titanic in 90s.

 

The fact is no matter how 3D fade away, the films is nowadays looked easier to pass 600m than in 90s and 00s.    

Its not easier per se, its for some multi-parters or long waited for.... whatever franchises that managed to get into the awareness of the GA.

And still some of those 'sure' titles fail to reach those thresholds.

Its also about how full a release schedule of a year is and filled with what kind of genres at which dates, how good they 'guess' the GAs taste for a certain story to be released 3 years or more later.

And for a time the internet helped to focus the awareness, but that seems to be stalling for explicit the cinemas as well.

The advertising amounts also increased to insane heights, still makes a movie's BO no sure thing.

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1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:

Actually, TS4's OW likely edges ahead of TS3's in admissions. 60% 3D share for TS3's OW was reported. Using $11 as average 3D ticket price in 2010 to subtract the 3D inflation out and then adjusting the new number to 2019 prices, we get an OW around $104m for TS3. TS4 maybe has 15% 3D share this weekend (if even that honestly), so using $12 as an average 2019 3D ticket price, it adjusts down to about $112m. So it probably sold more admissions. 

Toy Story movies will end up being tremendously consistent in numbers of admissions. Around 44-48m for the movies

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It's interesting... we've discussed many times in here already how the moviegoing practice has shifted almost entirely to the amusement park model for the most part, with both audiences and producers just accepting that only "certain types" of movies really pack in the theaters and everything else is better suited to streaming anymore...

 

Considering how many massive titles everyone is very aware of for 2019, do you think it's possible all this "underperformance" we're arguing about is simply more of that, now being extended to a new tier of film size? 

If families are only able to afford four movies a year, and we still have Lion King and Star Wars coming, and we've already had Avengers and.... well, toss it up between Aladdin and Captain Marvel, I guess.... 

Maybe the super-blockbusters are starting to cannibalize their own? And while movies making $250-300 million can look like an underperformance in some instances, we're maybe not paying enough attention to stuff like Wick and Us... OVERperforming in their respective tiers. 

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6 minutes ago, tupek said:

Now it is up to Shrek 5 to be the first $200m animation opener.

 

I don't see Frozen 2 a contender.

 

 

I highly doubt Shrek 5 will come close to those numbers. Shrek 2 will always be the peak of the franchise due to it capturing the zeitgeist at just the right moment. While there will be some nostalgia factor, I see Shrek 5 in a similar situation to Toy Story 4. Another sequel that nobody really asked for, only this time the franchise has been diluted by several poor sequels and TV specials/spin-offs. It's not going to explode like Incredibles 2, which was the first sequel to a highly beloved film and one that everyone had been clamoring for.

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Frozen 2 has infinitely better chances at a 200 OW than a Shrek 5. Though I definitely don't see it for F2. I'd say it will have to be a much anticipated sequel to a huge breakout that hasn't come out yet that does it. So in other words, it's not happening before mid 2020's at the soonest. 

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Posted (edited)

I don’t think Shrek 5 will be hugely successful. Has the franchise even aged well? Shrek 3 and Forever After left a bad taste in people’s mouths... 

Edited by Godzilla
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Shrek isn't a beloved film, it's a weird meme with freaky overtones. Shrek is basically just a bigger, uglier Sonic the Hedgehog now. I don't see a lot of love there

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Just now, Godzilla said:

I don’t think Shrek 5 will be hugely successful. Has the franchise even aged well? Shrek 3 and Forever After left a bad taste in people’s mouths... 

Do kids care about it is the bigger question. I feel like it hasn't passed down well. Especially since teens were what made those movies so huge back in the day, and the pop culture references wouldn't be relevant today. 

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smh at TS4's OW. It's an underperformance. It's actually a very big disappointment and underperformance. Oh well, Onto the next one.

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Posted (edited)

Both Frozen 2 and Shrek 5 have strong chances for $200M OW, a great Shrek 5 will rid the taste of 3/4 which tbh were forgotten amongst the late 90’s/early 00’s kids. The nostalgia for the first two Shrek is huge (which some hate for some reason but the admissions were ginormous, I think 2 is one of the most owned DVDs).

Edited by YourMother the Edgelord

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15 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

It's interesting... we've discussed many times in here already how the moviegoing practice has shifted almost entirely to the amusement park model for the most part, with both audiences and producers just accepting that only "certain types" of movies really pack in the theaters and everything else is better suited to streaming anymore...

 

Considering how many massive titles everyone is very aware of for 2019, do you think it's possible all this "underperformance" we're arguing about is simply more of that, now being extended to a new tier of film size? 

If families are only able to afford four movies a year, and we still have Lion King and Star Wars coming, and we've already had Avengers and.... well, toss it up between Aladdin and Captain Marvel, I guess.... 

Maybe the super-blockbusters are starting to cannibalize their own? And while movies making $250-300 million can look like an underperformance in some instances, we're maybe not paying enough attention to stuff like Wick and Us... OVERperforming in their respective tiers. 

part 1 is in my POV too extreme formulated.

But:

we older people got ~ pressured (not to take too seriously) to buy home video systems for being able to watch movies at home, so why should we miss out on a film or 2 per driving to a cinema where we have to be there lets say 30 minutes early to get the tickets even if pre-ordered, see way too much not wanted advertising, endure immature behaviour of others, have maybe to pay for a babysitter, parking place....  too much to pay for soft drinks.... if we can enjoy at home 1 to 2 movies more in said time, if nothing within a movie seems to suggest a better experience per watching it in a cinema?

Speed, vast landscapes,.... there the cinema still trumps the home cinema system of the most people. Plus the costs per family are stable at home too.

 

If something is cannibalizing itself its in my POV, as I often stated already, the way too much titles that get released the last some years. It feels like everybody with access to a camera makes now a movie.

In the '70/'80... if you lived in a big city directly beside a huge multiplex similar cinema that theoretical showed all released movies you could actually watch all released movies per going to a cinema every 2 days. Nowadays you'd have to watch nearly 3 movies a day, ignoring all the movies that get released in the TV or per streaming also.

Less TV stations, less event/talent shows/games/other..... then too.

 

And ww: the most seem to forget the increase of movies counts locally in I guess all countries with cinema too.

BOM only shows the titles that also got a dom release, ignores the vast majority of the in reality ww released movies.

 

Big hitters in huge numbers per year.... not a chance in reality (for now), I even think if nothing changes even less in the future.

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5 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Both Frozen 2 and Shrek 5 have strong chances for $200M OW, a great Shrek 5 will rid the taste of 3/4 which tbh were forgotten amongst the late 90’s/early 00’s kids. The nostalgia for the first two Shrek is huge (which some hate for some reason but the admissions were ginormous, I think 2 is one of the most owned DVDs).

Shrek 5 is gonna be Pika Pika 2.0: huge interest from millennials/Gen Z, with a lot of young kids not really caring, and thereby not a lot of tickets sold.

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1 minute ago, TMP said:

Shrek 5 is gonna be Pika Pika 2.0: huge interest from millennials/Gen Z, with a lot of young kids not really caring, and thereby not a lot of tickets sold.

I could see that but then again, it all depends on if Universal fucks up with the marketing.  

 

I mean did any kids care about The Jungle Book before the remake. 

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I don't think animated films have the $200 million OW punch. Incredibes 2 had the added bonus of being a superhero film. Shrek is a lost property. Mostly forgotten and not at all wanted. We see how TS4 missed expectations by a lofty measure. Shrek would be no different and doesn't have the merchandising/park attachments.

 

Disney has strategically looked beyond the scope of theaters for their movie releases. They are wise. It's been a vision that started again in the 90's when their renaissance films became attached to merchandise and parks. Then, other than the animated films, NONE of their other movies had any attachement to the brand. That changed with POTC. Then came Marvel (though not attached to the Florida park). Then SW then the live-action remakes. Pixar became stronger and stronger. Now, they've done what no other studio can fully do. They've immersed their movies with their parks and now streaming so it is all wound together. They've kept their most notable properties relevant with kids with the live action remakes. In turn, this keeps their parks relevant and so on and so forth. Kudos for them for "getting" the business approach.

 

So TS4 may "only" reach $400 million domestic but it's enough to keep TS Land current and modern and ingrained in current pop culture. 

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