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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

 

Looks like it'll cross $120M :)

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25 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Toy Story 4 Sunday. Guess how much.

 

Edit: Seems like most of you are asleep in East coast. Fine. I am not at home so I will be late from now mostly in morning in my timezone.

 

It is 34-34.5

So seems like Disney underestimated Sunday again. That would be a 13%-14% drop from Sat. I2 dropped 11% on a Father's Day Sunday. Really nice drop for TS4. Will be $121M OW with that figure.

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4 minutes ago, UserHN said:

So seems like Disney underestimated Sunday again. That would be a 13%-14% drop from Sat. I2 dropped 11% on a Father's Day Sunday. Really nice drop for TS4. Will be $121M OW with that figure.

Definitely a very promising Sunday hold. Could be a good sign that this'll play extremely well on weekdays like Toy Story 3 did.

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26 minutes ago, The GOAT said:

What does mean for the legs? that's like a 14% drop from saturday.

Very good drop. I2 dropped 11% and Dory 24%, both on a Father's Day Sunday. So for TS4 to be dropping 13-14% on a normal Sunday is really good. This bodes well for its legs.

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12 minutes ago, UserHN said:

So seems like Disney underestimated Sunday again. That would be a 13%-14% drop from Sat. I2 dropped 11% on a Father's Day Sunday. Really nice drop for TS4. Will be $121M OW with that figure.

This really makes Finding Dory's 24% drop on Father's Day Sunday quite puzzling in retrospect.

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2 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

This really makes Finding Dory's 24% drop on Father's Day Sunday quite puzzling in retrospect.

I'm a firm believer that Father's Day didn't do Finding Dory any favors. There were many other "dad" films in theaters that day, plus one of the most important NBA games ever was playing that evening.

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Finding Dory had good weekends of course, but some godly weekdays that are truly unbelievable. Still stare in shock when I look at those numbers.

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2 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

This really makes Finding Dory's 24% drop on Father's Day Sunday quite puzzling in retrospect.

Yeah, maybe because it already grossed huge on its Friday. It has a negligible Saturday increase from its true Friday (just increased by $100K), and then drop 24% on a Father's Day Sunday. It could also be because Dory isn't a movie suited for Father's Day. Lol

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, UserHN said:

So seems like Disney underestimated Sunday again.

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Edited by Porthos
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Posted (edited)

The real question  is how off is their 34.1% sat-sun drop for Aladdin. 

Edited by Ledmonkey96
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6 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

The real question  is how off is their 34.1% sat-sun drop for Aladdin. 

That seems extreme estimate for even Disney to predict such a Sunday drop in the midst of summer. 

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Sub-15% drop on Sun without FD boost? Reminds one of Wonder Woman's Sunday in June.

With 121 needs 3.3x for 400 dom. The Sat bump from true Friday was also better than I2, FD, TS3. SLOP2 is on it's way to a 3x+ multi and 3.3-3.5 for TS4 could happen.

 

On a separate note hope KOTM does much better than the 30% Sun drop WB has estimated.

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1 hour ago, Killimano3 said:

Finding Dory had good weekends of course, but some godly weekdays that are truly unbelievable. Still stare in shock when I look at those numbers.

It ended up having a better multiplier marginally than SLOP1 that summer : 3.6 vs 3.57. Looking at sequel factor, SLOP1 break-out and Dory's anticipation that was pretty great. TS4 may not match Dory's 3.6x.

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I'm very good with that $121 million start for Toy Story 4. Before I got swept in all the talk of 180-200 million (hell even Disney was with their 140, because like many said they always low-ball before a weekend) I was looking at this as a potential $125 million opener, and that 121 is perfectly in line with that.

 

Aladdin will probably get a 1 million bump, so I'm thinking $4.2 million on Sunday, am I close Charlie?

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9 hours ago, MrPink said:

Comic book films are our lord and savior.

 

Not enough for  the Year-to-date comparision to last year.... (dom)

And the one nearest in money comparison = 2016 had already 4 CBMs in the top 10 (CA:Civil War, Deadpool, Batman vs Superman, and X-Men Apocalypse).

Plus The Jungle Book, Zootopia, Finding Dory, Kung Fu Panda 3.

The 2 remaining top 10 titles were 'leftovers' from 2015 (Star Wars, Revenant)

 

per estimated ticket sales

2014 has an est. of 599,276,400 , 2013 = 598,107,000 , and 2012 = 633,307,100 in the same time frame

The first year backwards to have less than 2019 in the same time frame was 2011, the year with Thor 1 as the sole MCU CBM in that chart, but only as #4, and only  one of 2 CBMs in the sum (X-Men First Class being the other one, #8), with an result

$4,614,223,592

 

I think in especial the MCU or otherwise established based CBMs + established franchises like Furious gave and give a push to the admissions, but savior??????

 

 

Compare:  
Year Est.
Tickets*
2019
% change
2018
% change
2017
% change
2016
% change
2015
% change
2014
% change
2019 593.8 - -7.9% -1.2% -3.0% -5.2% -
2018 644.4 +8.5% - +7.2% +5.2% +2.9% -
2017 601.0 +1.2% -6.7% - -1.9% -4.1% -
2016 612.4 +3.1% -5.0% +1.9% - -2.2% -
2015 626.4 +5.5% -2.8% +4.2% +2.3% - -
2014 n/a -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -100.0% -

 

per money

 

Compare:  
Year Gross* 2019
% change
2018
% change
2017
% change
2016
% change
2015
% change
2014
% change
2019 $5,350.2 - -8.9% -0.8% +1.0% +1.3% +7.7%
2018 $5,870.9 +9.7% - +8.9% +10.8% +11.2% +18.2%
2017 $5,390.7 +0.8% -8.2% - +1.8% +2.1% +8.5%
2016 $5,297.1 -1.0% -9.8% -1.7% - +0.3% +6.6%
2015 $5,280.7 -1.3% -10.1% -2.0% -0.3% - +6.3%
2014 $4,967.3 -7.2% -15.4% -7.9% -6.2% -5.9% -
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I still see a 3.5-3.7 multiplier for TS4 being VERY possible or even likely. $425-$445 million is where I can see it heading domestically with $1 billion definitely being on the table WW.

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2 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Any new update for Sunday?

34-34.5M

 

Excellent drop

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After a sad Friday, we get a robust Saturday jump and a great Sunday drop.

 

That bodes well for the legs, + 400M here we go.

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10 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I still see a 3.5-3.7 multiplier for TS4 being VERY possible or even likely. $425-$445 million is where I can see it heading domestically with $1 billion definitely being on the table WW.

Disney might want to push TS4 to near $450M DOM, just for it to outgross Shrek 2’s $441M.

 

Also...there isn’t anything strong that could take down TS4 the next weekend. So we might have a great 2nd weekend for TS4.

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