Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

[UserHN]

2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

where did he post his estimate? 

Presales thread. Still really early though.

Edited June 21, 2019 by UserHN

[MrFanaticGuy34]

7 minutes ago, DAR said:

There comes a point where some people’s schtick is just old and tiresome 

Yeah. Especially the piss-poor pessimism from John Marston.

 

He always complains when numbers for any movie are worse than expected. Always. And yet, he’s not manly enough to accept why some users think his ”complain”-schtick can be old. Just a little boy.

[UserHN]

6 minutes ago, jedijake said:

How is $120 million opening for TS4 NOT bad?

What's your expectation in the first place? I'm expecting Dory numbers so it's easy for me to accept $120M. It's still bigger than TS3's OW, though unadjusted.

Edited June 21, 2019 by UserHN

[Alli]

John Marston is cool. and he's right. 120M would be disappointing. Didn't the forum hype up the movie with some 200M numbers?

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Maybe the lesser than expected previews were because Americans were too lazy? 

[UserHN]

Just now, Alli said:

John Marston is cool. and he's right. 120M would be disappointing. Didn't the forum hype up the movie with some 200M numbers?

That's Deadline. Not the forum.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

People always panicked when the previous openers (excluding Aladdin) disappointed embarrassingly. Now they panic when they assume TS4 opens lower than Dory?

[RealLyre]

it's too early to say that TS4 will open less than Dory, we haven't even got the final Thursday previews yet. I'm positive it can clear $140M.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

it's too early to say that TS4 will open less than Dory, we haven't even got the final Thursday previews yet. I'm positive it can clear $140M.

True. It’s just this forum in a nutshell. They always....ALWAYS panic like the “lesser than expected numbers” is a big deal.

Edited June 21, 2019 by MrFanaticGuy34

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Name blockbusters that opened at $12M previews or lower, but managed to hit over $140-150M anyway.

[jedijake]

14 minutes ago, UserHN said:

What's your expectation in the first place? I'm expecting Dory numbers so it's easy for me to accept $120M. It's still bigger than TS3's OW, though unadjusted.

$150-$155 million all along. Never swayed from that and it was feeling somewhat conservative for a while with the lofty predictions. Nobody here EVER even suggested it opening anywhere close to $120 million. It's disappointing in that EVERY publication and site had it at $140 million plus.

 

But $38 million proper Friday gives it $50 million overall OD.

All it needs is a solid $50 million Sat and $40 million Sunday to give it $140 million at least.

 

Aladdin: 56% RT, 94% audience and it WAY overperforms expectations

TS4: 98% RT, 95% audience and it underperforms expectations?

Edited June 21, 2019 by jedijake

[sfran43]

 

[RealLyre]

2 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Name blockbusters that opened at $12M previews or lower, but managed to hit over $140-150M anyway.

closest thing I can think of from recent years is Deadpool with 12M/132M (got a holiday boost). but back in the day when previews used to start at midnight Spider-Man 3 got a 151M OW from a 10M previews but it's not really comparable since that was over 10 years ago.

[superduperm]

12 minutes ago, Alli said:

John Marston is cool. and he's right. 120M would be disappointing. Didn't the forum hype up the movie with some 200M numbers?

I was on board with his realism until he claimed goddamn Toy Story 3 in goddamn 2010 should have grossed more than goddamn the Dark Knight adjusted just because of a few idiots on IMDb lol

[RealLyre]

2 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

the folks in the tracking thread seem to think Friday will be 36-40 so full OD in the 48-52 range? 

Edited June 21, 2019 by RealLyre
.

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Deadline right on the money!!!

 

After stealing our numbers from the tracking thread 

 

[That One Girl]

.

Edited March 7, 2022 by That One Guy

[superduperm]

2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

the folks in the tracking thread seem to think Friday will be 36-40 so full OD in the 48-52 range? 

Good lord 48 would be disappointing.

[Eric Duncan]

Runtimes w/out credits and attachments for next week's releases:

 

Annabelle Comes Home: 1:41. Attachments unknown (probably It 2 and Doctor Sleep)

Yesterday: 1:48. Attachments are Downton Abbey and Abominable

Edited June 21, 2019 by CoolEric258

[WayneBorg]

4 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

the folks in the tracking thread seem to think Friday will be 36-40 so full OD in the 48-52 range? 

No, without previews