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Toy Story 4 Weekend Thread | Estimates: Small Soldiers 118, Puppet Master 14.1, Prince of Persia 12.2 (-30%), Blues Brothers 2000 10.8 (-64%), Beverly Hills Chihuahua: The Squeakquel 10.3 (-58%)

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Just now, CoolEric258 said:

Runtimes w/out credits and attachments for next week's releases:

 

Annabelle Comes Home: 1:41. Attachments unknown (probably It 2 and Doctor Sleep)

Yesterday: 1:48. Attachments are Downton Abbey and Abominable

I'm starting to feel like Yesterday's gonna flop tbh.

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The range is pretty wide for estimating from early morning numbers; which are basically pre-sales and morning shows of East coast.

 

The early morning numbers suggest $40-42mn Friday. I will take these with pinch of salt because range for the two comps is pretty big and I am using the median of two, conservatively. There will be more clarity during mid day but don't expect any update, because its no MCU film that I will not sleep for. So next update 8-9 hours from now, unless I gave one in another hour or two or RTH fly by.

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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Just now, That One Guy said:

This isn’t having a multi as good as Dory.  Previews have become far more prevalent in the past 3 years and this is also probably gonna skew older than Dory.

Dory's multi was 14.6x TS4 only needs an 11.6x multi to clear 140M which is still possible I think. 

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Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

The range is pretty wide for estimating from early morning numbers; which are basically pre-sales and morning shows of East coast.

 

The early morning numbers suggest $40-42mn Friday. I will take these with pinch of salt because range for the two comps is pretty big and I am using the median of two, conservatively.

42M true friday is much better, with a 54M+ full OD I think 130M+ is safe at least 

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8 minutes ago, DAR said:

Jesus Christ, I swear this fucking forum

A $120M OW would be disappointing. Period. That’s not trolling at all.

 

That would be less than Toy Story 3 adjusted, less than Shrek the Trash unadjusted, less than Minions adjusted, and MARGINALLY better than SLOP adjusted.

 

Yes it’s “better than TS3 unadjusted.” Yes it’s “more than $100M.” It’s 2019 and people were calling TS3’s OW underwhelming at the time too, so neither of those mean much.

 

It still, given circumstances, is not good. Period.

 

BUT.

 

It’s only Friday morning. I don’t care what the “tracking” says this could have big walk ups today. So $120M OW is by no means a done-deal. Just saying if it happens it would be a disappointment and people would have every right to be disappointed.

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120-130m would we great opening but I can understand why people would be underwhelmed/disappointed. It would go below Disney's "lowball" estimate. 

 

From BOM

Now the question is whether Toy Story 4 can top even that monster number with some suggesting it could climb as high as $200 million, though Disney is remaining conservative, anticipating an opening around $140+ million from a massive 4,575 locations, the second widest opening ever behind only Avengers: Endgame.

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I2 to Dory or 9.8x-14.6x seems like a safe bet but apart from that it's up in the air.

 

12*10 = 120

12*11 = 132

12*12 = 144

12*13 = 156

 

either way it's gonna be a big to huge ow with strong legs expected.

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2 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

42M true friday is much better, with a 54M+ full OD I think 130M+ is safe at least 

Yeah I really hope it doesn’t fall from that. $54M wouldn’t be bad. Would put it on pace to match Finding Dory OW.

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3 minutes ago, superduperm said:

A $120M would be disappointing. Period. That’s not trolling at all.

 

That would be less than Toy Story 3 adjusted, less than Shrek the Trash unadjusted, less than Minions adjusted, and MARGINALLY better than SLOP adjusted.

 

Yes it’s “better than TS3 unadjusted.” Yes it’s “more than $100M.” It’s 2019 and people were calling TS3’s OW underwhelming at the time too, so neither of those mean much.

 

It still, given circumstances, is not good. Period.

 

BUT.

 

It’s only Friday morning. I don’t care what the “tracking” says this could have big walk ups today. So $120M OW is by no means a done-deal. Just saying if it happens it would be a disappointment and people would have every right to be disappointed.

NOT ALL FILMS ARE THE SAME! TS3 opened nine years ago while Dory and I2 had more relevancy and draw. Not to mention, for I2 it had a weak and starved family slate as well as the CBM craze. TS4 had an uphill battle from TS3 being the perfect ending. A $120M OW for an animated film is excellent. 

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