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charlie Jatinder

The Admission Count Thread.

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23 hours ago, JimiQ said:

No movie other than mcu or chinese local can reap benefit of the increase of global bo

Wow I've just seen this post, what the hell am I reading? MCU and local Chinese movies are not the only ones to reap the benefit of an increased global BO lol.  Just look at animated movies, none of them made a billion before 2010 yet we now have at least one that crosses the mark every year (Minions in 2015, Zootopia and Finding Dory in 2016, Despicable Me 3 in 2017, Incredibles 2 in 2018, Frozen and maybe Toy Story 4 this year). Then you have movies like Fast and Furious 7, Jurassic World and Star Wars 7 making over $1.5b (and over $2b for the latter) in just one year despite the fact that only three movies had ever done that before 2015. The Lion king also has a good shot at joining the $1.5b club. None of those movies I've just mentioned are MCU movies or local chinese movies.  I'm actually shocked by your post, this is not an opinion but a fact.

 

Oh and I would like to add that global BO increase predates the creation of the MCU (2008). People won't stop going to the theaters if one franchise stops. There were the Wizarding World, Middle Earth and Pirates franchises in the 2000s, MCU (mostly) in the 10s and if it declines something else will take over.

 

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For one lion king there are ten movies that underperform - no increase in bo. Count with me - 2009 $29B bo, no mcu, local china maybe $2B. 2019 $42B, $5B mcu, $6B local china. Difference 42-29= 13. Mcu+china diff= $9B. Increase in global bo for movies not mcu or local china is $4B. That’s 14%, third of what ncsoft claims.

 

edit: and I really don’t think majority of CM, EG and FFH viewers would watch Shazam, PDP or KOTM if there weren’t mcu. Maybe 5%

Edited by JimiQ
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You are not arguing in good faith. The Lion king is not the only movie I named. There are at least 10 movies that I listed in that post which made more money than all but 3 movies from the 00s not to mention all those that I left out. Case in point,

 

-1 movie made $1 billion in the 90s

-4 movies made $1 billion in the 00s

-32 movies made $1 billion in the 10s so far (8 MCU, 24 others), will likely end between 35 and 37 (9 MCU, 26 to 28 others) by the end of the decade

 

So even if you somehow pretend that the MCU doesn't exist, we still have twenty more billion dollar movies this decade than before, which is proof that the marketplace for EVERY blockbuster is bigger now than it was then. And even within China, while the local market has increased, so has Hollywood. Case in point, the highest grossing HLW movie 10 years ago was Transformers 2 with around $65m while today we have $629m (EG) or $390m (FF7, if you want to exclude the MCU). As I said before, we are not debating opinions here, these are hard facts.

 

And to your last point, I'm not saying that without the MCU, their fans would rush to watch the DCEU or whatever lol. I'm simply saying that the resources being devoted to them would be devoted to something else, that "thing" would not necessarily bring in the same admissions as the MCU but it woudn't be nothing either. And the same is true for any franchise. Put another way, even without the MCU, a movie will be released on the first weekend of Summer (like the Spidermen movies did before it),  just like even without the Potter franchise, movies are still released on thanksgivings weekend (Twilight, Pixar, Hunger games etc) or even without the Middle Earth franchise, something will be released during the holiday season (Star Wars, Avatar etc).

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I see a lot of debate about which box office run was more impressive for its era. Fortunately, we have numbers! Using the movies of the era and looking at how much a particular film dominated its respective year, using 2018 for Endgame's competition and double-counting Deadpool 2 (Advantage: Endgame), the proper ranking since Jurassic Park was released is:

 

1. Titanic

...Power Gap...

2. Avatar

3. Jurassic Park

...Power Gap...

4. Endgame

 

faIgOtO.png

 

Or in chart form:

igDHb7w.png

 

If you disagree with the methodology, please come up with your own, justify it, and post the results.

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22 hours ago, Pure Spirit said:

I see a lot of debate about which box office run was more impressive for its era. Fortunately, we have numbers! Using the movies of the era and looking at how much a particular film dominated its respective year, using 2018 for Endgame's competition and double-counting Deadpool 2 (Advantage: Endgame), the proper ranking since Jurassic Park was released is:

 

1. Titanic

...Power Gap...

2. Avatar

 3. Jurassic Park

 ...Power Gap...

4. Endgame

 

faIgOtO.png

  

 Or in chart form:

igDHb7w.png

If you disagree with the methodology, please come up with your own, justify it, and post the results.

Pretty awesome, simple and effective. Basically, using each film as a multiplier of the average top 10 film of the year that the movie was released, and see how much more proportionally each film grossed compared to others film grosses in the same year. I think your graph has overestimated JP a little, since I'm pretty sure it's initial worldwide run was ~914M instead of 984M, but that wouldn't change the conclusion or anything.

If I were to do a relative success for all time record holders, I'd probably do a weighed system, I bet the outcome will be identical to yours:

1. Percentage which record was broken (10%)

2. Proportion of worldwide total box office at the year of release (20%),

3. Significant records held, such as OS crown, domestic crown and worldwide crown (10%)

4. Comparisons to the top 10 average film released of their respective years (60%).

Glad to see that you also agree Jurassic Park was a slightly more impressive run than endgame, I said that Jurassic Park was more impressive two days ago based on Jurassic Parks' worldwide record percentage and overseas record. People collectively laughed it off and called that statement :

"One of the silliest comments on this entire website."

 

So it's cool to see a system comparing average top grosses over the years also agrees that Jurassic Park is more impressive, gees, that film doesn't get due respect and credit. Yep, gonna make that statement again: 

Jurassic Park had a more impressive global box office run than Endgame.

Avatar/Titanic? All time legends, no need to further comments on them.

 

Edited by NCsoft
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Now, this also means that Endgame is the 4th most impressive box office run of the last 30 years (I haven't even been alive that long), 2nd most impressive run this century so far, and most impressive run of the 2010s decade, I would say that is not too shabby at all, and deserves a round of applause. I would even say that it's been a privilege to witness this impressive run, if not for all the toxicity and narrative pushing surrounding it. However, all in all, still a great time. 

 

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On 6/28/2019 at 11:57 PM, HeadShot said:

It was selling a lot of 3D tickets but we all know that 3D was at its peak during Avatars run and the early 10´s.  Most of Avatars tickets are 3D. Which is way more than only 45% of "Endgame" tickets. 

 

Yes Avatar was an impressive 72% of the bo in 3D apparently (in the first month at least) so probably comfortably above 50% in ticket sales:

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2657

Avatar's 3D presentations have accounted for 72 percent or $1.35 billion of its total gross. Breaking that down, 3D's domestic share is 80 percent, and its foreign share is 69 percent. 

 

 

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On 6/24/2019 at 8:37 AM, Charlie Jatinder said:

Since, Avengers: Endgame is on its last days of box office earning and I had promised to do this one, so now it begins. The purpose of this thread is to compare the admissions of the two biggest grossers of all time; Avatar and Avengers: Endgame to settle the debate on some issues which concern the box office community; such as exchange rates, inflations, etc. I am starting this thread today but it won't be completed till next two weeks most probably. I am hoping that by July 10th, we will have almost the actual admission count of the two giants, so stay tuned. 

 

The sheet will be the battleground which will be updated in time.

https://bit.ly/aaacount

 

Now somethings I would like to say;

  1. This is an attempt to get the closest to actually count as the absolute accurate number is impossible.
  2. There will be sources, provided for every number taken.
  3. Some numbers will be estimated, the calculations will be provided
  4. If you find any mistake, please let me know.
  5. It will be easier to finish if all of you can help with the markets you track. Thanks in advance.

 

giphy.gif

 

You’re awesome. Love this. 

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20 minutes ago, PKMLover said:

Is there any update for Endgame number? 

Endgame was at 381,7 million admissions, having made 1.916B overseas. Considering it made $20 million more since and it made more domestically as well, i think it’s fairly certain that 385 million was reached. What a staggering number that is!

 

Hopefully Charlie can confirm!

Edited by The Dark Samurai
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On 7/1/2019 at 3:51 AM, Pure Spirit said:

I see a lot of debate about which box office run was more impressive for its era. Fortunately, we have numbers! Using the movies of the era and looking at how much a particular film dominated its respective year, using 2018 for Endgame's competition and double-counting Deadpool 2 (Advantage: Endgame), the proper ranking since Jurassic Park was released is:

 

1. Titanic

...Power Gap...

2. Avatar

3. Jurassic Park

...Power Gap...

4. Endgame

 

faIgOtO.png

 

Or in chart form:

igDHb7w.png

 

If you disagree with the methodology, please come up with your own, justify it, and post the results.

This is the biggest load of bullshit I ever read. The 2nd biggest grossing movie of 1993 was Mrs. Doubtfire. While EndGame was released during one of the biggest years in blockbusters of all time. 

 

1 Jurassic Park Uni. $983.8 $357.1 36.3% $626.7 63.7%
2 Mrs. Doubtfire Fox $441.3 $219.2 49.7% $222.1 50.3%
3 The Fugitive WB $368.9 $183.9 49.8% $185.0 50.2%
4 Schindler's List Uni. $321.3 $96.1 29.9% $225.2 70.1%
5 The Firm Par. $270.2 $158.3 58.6% $111.9 41.4%
6 Indecent Proposal Par. $266.6 $106.6 40.0% $160.0 60.0%
7 Cliffhanger TriS $255.0 $84.0 33.0% $171.0 67.0%
8 Sleepless in Seattle TriS $227.8 $126.7 55.6% $101.1 44.4%
9 Philadelphia TriS $206.7 $77.4 37.5% $129.2 62.5%
10 The Pelican Brief WB $195.3 $100.8 51.6% $94.5

48.4%

 

 

vs

 

 

 

1 Avengers: Endgame BV $2,795.7 $858.1 30.7% $1,937.6 69.3%
2 The Lion King (2019) BV $1,435.2 $496.1 34.6% $939.1 65.4%
3 Captain Marvel BV $1,128.3 $426.8 37.8% $701.4 62.2%
4 Spider-Man: Far from Home Sony $1,102.8 $376.6 34.2% $726.2 65.8%
5 Aladdin (2019) BV $1,035.7 $353.5 34.1% $682.2 65.9%
6 Toy Story 4 BV $1,016.6 $424.4 41.7% $592.2 58.3%
7 The Wandering Earth CMC $699.8 $5.9 0.8% $693.9 99.2%
8 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Uni. $519.8 $160.8 30.9% $359.0 69.1%
9 Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw Uni. $437.0 $133.7 30.6% $303.3 69.4%
10 Pokemon Detective Pikachu WB $431.5 $144.1 33.4% $287.4 66.6%

 

 

Either way popularity of a movie is measured in admissions. So End Game is bigger than JP and Avatar. 

Related image

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In the Interim Titanic numbers;

 

Countries worth $2.08 Billion has 380 million approx admissions. The remaining $110 million is mostly from Asian countries, so its rather tough to estimate as on one hand you have India with ATP of $0.6 while China is at $2.25 compared to $3 and $6 today. 

 

One thing is certain, that its over 400mn. Most likely in vicinity of 425mn.

 

The Biggest Theatrical Blockbuster of all Time.

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Now reason I say Avatar is weakest ATG in recent time is this;

 

Titanic in 1990s had precedence of over 400mn admissions. While in 2010s Avatar was barely 60% of Titanic.

 

And now after another 10 years, when theatrical windows are much smaller across the world; Endgame has managed to near 400mn, when no film crossed 300mn in last 22 years since Titanic, may be Infinity War is close by.

 

Ironically, Avatar is the one which is crossed by least margin.

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Most watched films worldwide in last 25 Years.

 

  1. Titanic: 405mn (Including 40mn 3D re-release)
  2. Avengers: Endgame: 390mn
  3. Avengers: Infinity War: 300mn Approx
  4. Avatar: 289mn 

 

Star Wars: The Force Awakens would be around 220mn Approx

Edited by Charlie Jatinder
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