The Admission Count Thread.

[Permanent Magnet]

6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

 

Of the countries that report admission, many had Avatar more than EG, Europe and Japan almost entirely wiped out the net increase  contributed by China.

 

I don't get how Avatar can lose to EG by 100m+ admission with the left over countries especially when the difference between two in USA is looking at around 10m. Unless charlie is underestimating Avatar's admission. 

  

100M is a bit of exaggerating, he May revise Avatar numbers I think, but let's do sample math,

Avatar has a lead of 50-52M over EG in EU, Japan and Australia, the former made 96M, 10.1M. 7.5M, while the latter made 53M, 4.01M, 5.7M, that's about 51M gap which will be closed by EG in china alone (86.6vs 28), now add LA 2 biggest markets (Brazil and Mexico),EG made 44,while Avatar made 21.1M (23M gap)+ USA 10M difference

This leaves EG 40.6M ahead of Avatar(23+10+7.6) and that's excluding South East Asia, India and rest of LA which will widen the gap.

 

P.S: even if we take the 40.8M number in china for Avatar, which is reported in china BO thread, EG will still have about 28M lead, now add the remaining markets and you are looking at 50M at least.

 

EG will have AT LEAST 50M lead over Avatar anyway, and it should be compared to Titanic original run only.

 

Titanic is the G.O.A.T btw

[PKMLover]

20 minutes ago, Permanent Magnet said:

100M is a bit of exaggerating, he May revise Avatar numbers I think, but let's do sample math,

Avatar has a lead of 50-52M over EG in EU, Japan and Australia, the former made 96M, 10.1M. 7.5M, while the latter made 53M, 4.01M, 5.7M, that's about 51M gap which will be closed by EG in china alone (86.6vs 28), now add LA 2 biggest markets (Brazil and Mexico),EG made 44,while Avatar made 21.1M (23M gap)+ USA 10M difference

This leaves EG 40.6M ahead of Avatar(23+10+7.6) and that's excluding South East Asia, India and rest of LA which will widen the gap.

 

P.S: even if we take the 40.8M number in china for Avatar, which is reported in china BO thread, EG will still have about 28M lead, now add the remaining markets and you are looking at 50M at least.

 

EG will have AT LEAST 50M lead over Avatar anyway, and it should be compared to Titanic original run only.

 

Titanic is the G.O.A.T btw

What about Middle East, Western Asia and Africa countries? 

[PKMLover]

9 hours ago, Permanent Magnet said:

100M is a bit of exaggerating, he May revise Avatar numbers I think, but let's do sample math,

Avatar has a lead of 50-52M over EG in EU, Japan and Australia, the former made 96M, 10.1M. 7.5M, while the latter made 53M, 4.01M, 5.7M, that's about 51M gap which will be closed by EG in china alone (86.6vs 28), now add LA 2 biggest markets (Brazil and Mexico),EG made 44,while Avatar made 21.1M (23M gap)+ USA 10M difference

This leaves EG 40.6M ahead of Avatar(23+10+7.6) and that's excluding South East Asia, India and rest of LA which will widen the gap.

 

P.S: even if we take the 40.8M number in china for Avatar, which is reported in china BO thread, EG will still have about 28M lead, now add the remaining markets and you are looking at 50M at least.

 

EG will have AT LEAST 50M lead over Avatar anyway, and it should be compared to Titanic original run only.

 

Titanic is the G.O.A.T btw

That 40.8M admissions of Avatar you said is a mistake because it means the ATP was only around 33 yuan back then for Avatar (even lower than the average of normal 2D movie). I already asked @Olive again, he said the ATP was around 50-52, which gave 26.6- 27.7M admissions.

Edited June 29, 2019 by PKMLover

[Permanent Magnet]

2 hours ago, PKMLover said:

What about Middle East, Western Asia and Africa countries? 

yea yea i am well aware of that, i am just talking about the countries that we have estimations for, and 50M is the least number, personally i think the gap will be 80+ million.

[Nero]

@titanic2187 just coz Avatar gross is lower in Asian countries that doesn't give you right to say that they are 'left over' countries. How will you react if someone trashes your country? Think before you type... Disgusting

[HeadShot]

13 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Not what I said friend.

 

To size them up against each other is difficult the further they are apart, different eras.

 

Avatar and EG are similar era's, it's ER vs Market Growth and Inflation. Market Growth and Inflation is pretty obviously a bigger factor but we're able to bend reality in this thread to make ourselves feel better. I mean look at Charlie, does everything in his power never to mention the fact the global market has grown since 2009.

except there was an economic collapse in 2008-2009. Biggest since the great depression. So no it's not fair to compare Avatars gross, inflated by exchange rates and 3D tickets, to End Games. Give it up Cameron fan. Just stick to Titanic which we can all agree is the biggest movie of all time. 

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, HeadShot said:

and 3D tickets

It is not like End Games wasn't selling a lot of those (and a lot of PLF that proliferated over the year's)

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/avengers-endgame-crosses-2-billion-worldwide-2019-5

May 5:

And on the 3D front, tomorrow the movie will be the third in history to generate over $1 billion worldwide in just 3D ticket sales ("Force Awakens" and "Avatar"). 45% of "Endgame" ticket sales are from 3D.

[HeadShot]

Just now, Barnack said:

It is not like End Games wasn't selling a lot of those (and a lot of PLF that proliferated over the year's)

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/avengers-endgame-crosses-2-billion-worldwide-2019-5

May 5:

And on the 3D front, tomorrow the movie will be the third in history to generate over $1 billion worldwide in just 3D ticket sales ("Force Awakens" and "Avatar"). 45% of "Endgame" ticket sales are from 3D.

It was selling a lot of 3D tickets but we all know that 3D was at its peak during Avatars run and the early 10´s.  Most of Avatars tickets are 3D. Which is way more than only 45% of "Endgame" tickets. 

[NCsoft]

54 minutes ago, HeadShot said:

 except there was an economic collapse in 2008-2009. Biggest since the great depression. So no it's not fair to compare Avatars gross, inflated by exchange rates and 3D tickets, to End Games. Give it up Cameron fan. Just stick to Titanic which we can all agree is the biggest movie of all time. 

Wrong on all levels, I've demonstrated this like 1000 times in the past month.

if film gross is inflated by exchange rate in 2009, then there's no reason for top 10 film worldwide in 2018 out-grossing top 10 film worldwide 2009 by 42%, unless Avatar is the only film benefited from exchange rate and Endgame is somehow the only movie facing disadvantage of the current exchange rate. Which is absurd.

Global inflation + market expansion >>>>>> Exchange rate.  2019 Global box office : 42B+   2009 Global box office: 29B+ (inflated by exchange rate? ).

 

Regarding the high 3D ratio:

1. There's 10 years of global ticket inflation for both 2D and 3D ticket prices.

2. There are signicantly more theaters showing 3D, in addition to IMAX, Dolby Cinema, UltraAvx, China FGX, more theaters showing premium screenings then ever before, many times over 10 years ago.

3. It's not like Endgame doesn't have significant premium/3D ticket ratio, most if not all China's 80M+ admission is in 3D.

4. Films shouldn't be punished for high 3D ratio, that could drive down admission, and if audiences choose to pay more for better theatrical experience, then the film earns that money, fair and square.

 

 

Edited June 29, 2019 by NCsoft

[Permanent Magnet]

9 hours ago, PKMLover said:

That 40.8M admissions of Avatar you said is a mistake because it means the ATP was only around 33 yuan back then for Avatar (even lower than the average of normal 2D movie). I already asked @Olive again, he said the ATP was around 50-52, which gave 26.6- 27.7M admissions.

Again, I tried to give Avatar every advantage possible to prove the point

I know that 40.8M is wrong, never believed it, and even without knowing that ATP for Avatar was as high as EG, I guessed that is grossed about 28M, if you take the 3D release of Titanic as comp (which sold 21M ticket in China) And apply the same ticket price to Avatar (as both were 3D and released only 3 years apart) you will get 28M for Avatar.

 

[JimiQ]

@NCsoft - of those $42B at least $5B is MCU and another $9B is China, of which something like 2/3 are local films, so yours $42B become $31B. I see no 42% boost there, sorry

[titanic2187]

 

11 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

What do you even mean by "left over" countries? The "left over" countries that you are talking about have an way more dense population than Europe and  Japan, and it’s not like Endgame was a slouch in those locations. You are coming off quite bitter and I’d even say kind of obnoxious. I won’t be touching arguments about "left over" countries. Fucking ugh dude.

1 hour ago, Nero said:

@titanic2187 just coz Avatar gross is lower in Asian countries that doesn't give you right to say that they are 'left over' countries. How will you react if someone trashes your country? Think before you type... Disgusting

Not too sure how you see the word of left over being "pejorative". I simply used that word as "remaining/the rest" purpose, if you pay attention , I include USA and my own country as part of the left over country i had not intention of trashing any country in my context.  

 

Think before you trash . It is you being imaginary. If you were from india, surely you realised india consistently produced multiples USD50m grossers in the past 10 years, some even crossed above 100m+. Nobody in the right mind will be little of that country. 

 

[NCsoft]

1 hour ago, JimiQ said:

@NCsoft - of those $42B at least $5B is MCU and another $9B is China, of which something like 2/3 are local films, so yours $42B become $31B. I see no 42% boost there, sorry

Pretty odd sentence here

1. yes $5B MCU, does that change what I said? that top Hollywood films greatly benefit from a larger worldwide market today, MCU being prime examples. This actually confirms what I said.

2. China market is 10 times bigger than 2009, local films takes a greater percentage, but that ~40% left for import films is still bigger (many times over) than it has ever been, especially compared to 10 years ago.

 

42% increase for top grossing films worldwide 2009-2018 (I'd use 2019 but the year is not done) is based on calculation, not a number I threw out.

2009: Average #2 to #10 films worldwide : $705.48M  (Avatar is a clear outlier, therefore removed, this calculation is to justify Avatar's status as a gross outlier)

2018: Average #2 to #10 films worldwide: $1003.21M (Infinity War is not an outlier, but for the sake of calculation consistency, also removed.)

Increase: 42.2% 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view2=worldwide&yr=2009&p=.htm

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?view2=worldwide&yr=2018&p=.htm

 

Alternatively, if you want, I can do 2008-2018 as well, without the need to remove TDK and IW, neither are true outliers. I bet the increase will be bigger than 42%.

 

Just did 2008 vs 2018 (out of Sheer boredom on 2AM Saturday)

2008: Average top 10 films worldwide : $638.27M

2018: Average top 10 films worldwide : $1107.81M 

Increase: 73.6% (yeah right, market worldwide didn't increase )

Edited June 29, 2019 by NCsoft

[JimiQ]

You are putting a narrative that Avatar released now would gross 40% more and I am refusing that argument because Avatar wouldn't get any of the MCU money and any of the local chinese money. Ergo generally market didn't rise, it was just enriched by two new major parts.

[Nero]

56 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

 

Not too sure how you see the word of left over being "pejorative". I simply used that word as "remaining/the rest" purpose, if you pay attention , I include USA and my own country as part of the left over country i had not intention of trashing any country in my context.  

 

Think before you trash . It is you being imaginary. If you were from india, surely you realised india consistently produced multiples USD50m grossers in the past 10 years, some even crossed above 100m+. Nobody in the right mind will be little of that country. 

 

It sounded like you were doing it intentionally if not my bad. It's just not about India by the way saying bad things about any country is not great. And left over countries remark sounds bad in general maybe you should say the other countries...

[NCsoft]

15 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

You are putting a narrative that Avatar released now would gross 40% more and I am refusing that argument because Avatar wouldn't get any of the MCU money and any of the local chinese money. Ergo generally market didn't rise, it was just enriched by two new major parts.

You guys have a strange habit of putting words in other people's mouth.

the claim that the worldwide market is 40% bigger, therefore grossing 2.77B now is not as impressive as a run grossing the same 10 years ago, is very different from saying that Avatar would definitely gross 40% more if released today. GWTW probably will fall short of Godzilla if released today, does that change the fact that it had one of the most impressive runs ever? Film runs are bound by their era, we know and acknowledge that.

 

Look through the average top 10 grossing films from 2008 all the way to 2019 and tell me generally market didn't rise, and it didn't benefit Hollywood films 

[Claudio]

4 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

You guys have a strange habit of putting words in other people's mouth.

the claim that the worldwide market is 40% bigger, therefore grossing 2.77B now is not as impressive as a run grossing the same 10 years ago, is very different from saying that Avatar would definitely gross 40% more if released today. GWTW probably will fall short of Godzilla if released today, does that change the fact that it had one of the most impressive runs ever? Film runs are bound by their era, we know and acknowledge that.

 

Look through the average top 10 grossing films from 2008 all the way to 2019 and tell me generally market didn't rise, and it didn't benefit Hollywood films 

Yes , but still EG grosses more admissions than Avatar. That's what this thread was meant to be. An 'Admission Count' not 'Who's the most impressive run'. I agree that Avatar run was super impressive but this is an admission thread. Please keep it that way. Feels like you have a strange habit of derailing the admission thread into another subject thread which makes that Avatar always wins no matter what.

[langer]

11 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

I'm sorry what's the highest grossing film oh all time?

placeholder reply...  😎 - to be edited later

Edited June 29, 2019 by langer

[NCsoft]

17 minutes ago, Claudio said:

Yes , but still EG grosses more admissions than Avatar. That's what this thread was meant to be. An 'Admission Count' not 'Who's the most impressive run'. I agree that Avatar run was super impressive but this is an admission thread. Please keep it that way. Feels like you have a strange habit of derailing the admission thread into another subject thread which makes that Avatar always wins no matter what.

Eh, headshot was talking non-sense about "depression, 3D tickets, inflation etc...", I was simply replying him, it is a conversation. 

 

I have discussed this "admission" topic in the very first page, global box office gross increased 40% in the past 10 years, this indicate that admission increased more than 40% (developing market with cheaper on average tickets). So not a level playing field at all.

If I feel like it, I'll write another post discussing why I think while endgame may indeed out-admission Avatar,  mathematically it makes little to no sense for it to outdo Avatar by 100M admissions (like 36% more?). I'll see if I find energy to do that, I mean, no one is viewing this thread. I bet Charlie expected more audiences.

 

To be sure, it's hard for Avatar not to win, unless the opponent is Titanic.

Edited June 29, 2019 by NCsoft

[JimiQ]

1 hour ago, NCsoft said:

Eh, headshot was talking non-sense about "depression, 3D tickets, inflation etc...", I was simply replying him, it is a conversation. 

 

I have discussed this "admission" topic in the very first page, global box office gross increased 40% in the past 10 years, this indicate that admission increased more than 40% (developing market with cheaper on average tickets). So not a level playing field at all.

If I feel like it, I'll write another post discussing why I think while endgame may indeed out-admission Avatar,  mathematically it makes little to no sense for it to outdo Avatar by 100M admissions (like 36% more?). I'll see if I find energy to do that, I mean, no one is viewing this thread. I bet Charlie expected more audiences.

 

To be sure, it's hard for Avatar not to win, unless the opponent is Titanic.

Global box office stayed the same, it’s just that MCU and chinese local films added to that global box office