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charlie Jatinder

The Admission Count Thread.

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39 minutes ago, Broshnat said:

This is just the initial release though in 1952.

 

Gone with the Wind - 1952 - ¥190m - 3.46m

Gone with the Wind - 1961 - ¥276m - 3.25mn

Gone with the Wind - 1967 - ¥454m - 1.92mn

Gone with the Wind - 1972 - ¥285m - 0.69mn

 

So that is at least 9.3m admissions in Japan just in the four years that it was in the top 10 yearly chart.

Thanks. That would explain the $200mn overseas gross. $3.34mn from 9.3mn admits.

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On 7/12/2020 at 9:36 AM, Broshnat said:

This is just the initial release though in 1952.

 

Gone with the Wind - 1952 - ¥190m - 3.46m

Gone with the Wind - 1961 - ¥276m - 3.25mn

Gone with the Wind - 1967 - ¥454m - 1.92mn

Gone with the Wind - 1972 - ¥285m - 0.69mn

 

So that is at least 9.3m admissions in Japan just in the four years that it was in the top 10 yearly chart.

well,that is really useful,can you give a source?

and I really interested in Ben Hur and West side story data in Japan,I heard Ben Hur had 30m+ admission in Japan

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I thought may be China re-release could take Potter around 200mn admits, but it will fall short. by a quite.

 

In best case scenario I expect 10mn admits from China, which will take it to 190mn only.

 

Also, we all wonder how much will be Potter adjusted to today time to time. Well $1.72 Billion just for inflation and exchange rate adjustment. However, due to market growth, I think Potter could have done $1.9-2 Billion.

<iframe width="100%" height="500" src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQObouMLFyMWaVUNPI7aM7SA93VYRiRz1P7lQb9seRmWEVKeubmXww3nko1y2UzV1aEV2YeUa7SHEwJ/pubhtml?gid=1765961898&amp;single=true&amp;widget=true&amp;headers=false"></iframe>

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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Market growth worth more than that imo. Iirc it was 2nd highest import in China in 2002? And HP franchise was highest import in a couple years. That points to 300-400M+ in today’s China, vs just 20M atp and er adjusted. Bit of market growth in other territories and you’re over 2B.    
 

Also it was #2 WW. Ranks don’t translate perfectly across decades but seeing as how even #5 nowadays is 2B+ I’ve gotta consider HP1’s performance a 2B+ analogue.

Edited by Arendelle Legion
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49 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Market growth worth more than that imo. Iirc it was 2nd highest import in China in 2002? And HP franchise was highest import in a couple years. That points to 300-400M+ in today’s China, vs just 20M atp and er adjusted. Bit of market growth in other territories and you’re over 2B.    

Yeah I forget China :D

 

but then Europe may have some downfall and China perhaps $200mn range. I mean The Lost World did ¥72mn in 1997 and Potter did ¥56mn in 2002. 

 

Jurassic films now do $250mn range, so Potter perhaps $180mn.

 

Another comparison is perhaps DH2 (¥402mn) vs Transformers 4 ¥1020mn. Today a Transformer level film will be perhaps do around ¥3-3.25B. so 40% of that around ¥1.2B. But then HP Dh2 had finale factor, best Potter number before that were ¥156mn.

 

Having that +$160mn. A bit smaller Europe & Japan, I guess $1.85-1.9 Billion.

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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2 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Market growth worth more than that imo. Iirc it was 2nd highest import in China in 2002? And HP franchise was highest import in a couple years. That points to 300-400M+ in today’s China, vs just 20M atp and er adjusted. Bit of market growth in other territories and you’re over 2B.    
 

Also it was #2 WW. Ranks don’t translate perfectly across decades but seeing as how even #5 nowadays is 2B+ I’ve gotta consider HP1’s performance a 2B+ analogue.

So around the same for LOTR then I guess?

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26 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Imo:

RotK easy 2B+
TTT probably

FotR more in the JW-2B range

 

I agree. Even although FOTR was more attended in Europe than the others, I guess that the fact that both TTT and ROTK had enormous battles could imply more interest in China, for example.

 

I really wish LOTR could be re-released...

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14 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

RotK easy 2B+

RoTK will be below Potter. The ER were shit in November 2001 than December 2003.

 

Both Potter and RoTK had same Admits but HP will have advantage in Gross as it did big in Japan and Japan ER was horrible. $164mn of HP adjust to $215mn today but $95mn of LoTR3 is only $108mn. Similarly UK, $108mn of LoTR3 is $127mn today while $94mn of HP is $146mn.

 

Regarding China, 1st Hobbit did ¥316mn in 2012 & last did ¥761mn in 2014. There isn't much growth in how big an individual film go since 2015 if we see, so guess LoTR films could be around ¥1.25-1.3Bn but then I think Aquaman did ¥2Bn, so who knows...

 

After thinking about Aquaman and Venom, I guess Potter may be also can do better, but again...

 

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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31 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

China is hardly the only market expansion though. I just don’t see any movie performance that was top 2 at the time corresponding to less than 2B.

I think Top 2 or using rank is bit iffish.

 

E.g. Number 2nd film in 2014 was Hunger Games 2 at $337mn, doesn't mean it would have done $540mn in 2019 or $678mn in 2018. 

 

LoTR 3 released in better ERs than Potter and FoTK, so perhaps if ER weren't that shit in 2001, Potter and FoTK could have been #2.

 

Regarding China thing, am adding $150-175mn or so for China for market expansion. Say another $125-150mn for Asia and Latin America. 

 

-$50-100mn in Europe and Japan, we are looking at $1.8-1.9 Billion ish for Potter and LoTR 3. I mean final Potter did just $124mn in Japan. Potter 1 had 57mn admits in EU while DH 2 around 36mn.

 

DH 2 is good measure to see how Potter 1 would have grown in Asia and Latin America, and go down in mature markets and DH 2 growth came from series of films in Asia and Latin America. Not sure how HP as first film of franchise released today would have done.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think Top 2 or using rank is bit iffish.

 

E.g. Number 2nd film in 2014 was Hunger Games 2 at $337mn, doesn't mean it would have done $540mn in 2019 or $678mn in 2018. 

All-time ranks work much better than yearly. More volume means less variance and much less sensitive to “were there a lot of blockbusters that happened to release this year.”    
 

But yeah, it’s not perfect, especially at the very top ranks since you again can have a big effect from very outlier runs. I’d be pretty comfortable to say that a movie which made, say #61 WW in its time (TWS for instance) would translate to about 61st now (BoRhap at 900M). But I definitely wouldn’t be comfortably saying that just because Potter made #2 it would be a 2.8B, or that Age of Ultron doing #5 means it would do 2B. An overly tight correspondence like that doesn’t work with the various historical quirks of the different times.
 

There’s a lot of wiggle room here though. Putting Potter below 2B means a movie 2nd place in its time doing 6th place now, and I don’t think Endgame+Avatar+Titanic+TFA+IW are all historical outliers enough for that to make sense. There were some historically great runs for the time that HP1 did surpass after all.

 

Edited by Arendelle Legion
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Weird thing happened.

 

I filled the European grosses like Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Belgium, Austria, Poland, etc estimated from Europe admits for Harry Potter, which aren't on Mojo

 

&

 

Mojo has numbers of UK, Germany, Spain, Netherlands way low than the numbers reported.

e.g. Germany gross is €75.6mn, which should be $86mn but Mojo only has $67mn. Similarly Spain is €28mn, should be $31mn but Mojo has it at $24.5mn. Similarily UK GBP66mn, should be $96mn but they have it at only $84mn. I suspect same in France but I don't have EUR gross to confirm this. So after correcting them.

 

I found that International gross is underreported. I won't be surprised if Potter is already $995-1005mn Approx.

 

Also due to filling the data of European countries now, the admits are around 168mn Approx, but I am assuming $1000mn gross worldwide.

 

@peludo what you say about European grosses being wrong.

 

Edit: Japan number should be $158mn, so $996mn coming. Hopefully on Friday Warner announce Billion Dollar.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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18 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Putting Potter below 2B means a movie 2nd place in its time doing 6th place now, and I don’t think Endgame+Avatar+Titanic+TFA+IW are all historical outliers enough for that to make sense. There were some historically great runs for the time that HP1 did surpass after all.

We need to take in account that Potter despite being #2 was about half of Titanic and we had Jurassic Park around similar numbers 8 years earlier.

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So I found this. This seems like numbers till mid January. I don't know if Warner even officially announced the worldwide numbers but Mojo numbers are definitely fucked up.

 

http://web.archive.org/web/20040615203725/http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/data/harrypotter.htm

 

Going by this, the smaller Asian and Latin America countries, which I will just put in Rest did atleast $25mn, so Potter is already a billion dollar grosser mates. Let's see if Warner adjust their numbers after China re-release.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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5 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

the European numbers taken are way way way less than they should be. I don't know if Warner even officially announced the worldwide numbers but Mojo numbers are definitely fucked up.

Isn't even the case often today that individual country performance on mojo are shaky even when the total that do come from the studio is closer to the truth, I would imagine that to be very common for early 2000s title.

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4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Isn't even the case often today that individual country performance on mojo are shaky even when the total that do come from the studio is closer to the truth

Yeah but thing is that no matter what Mojo database say overseas territory number is, the overall total has the correct total.

 

In Potter case, the overall total seems to be wrong if we add the known individual markets gross.

 

The link I shared above seems like what Mojo received from official levels and figures sure are different than what they are in their database. I figure these numbers are till January 6th going by the UK gross.

Spoiler
  Title Gross Distr % chg Week # Sites Cum to date
1 The Lord of the Rings 5,967,910 Entm't -24 3 470 34,988,861
2 Harry Potter Philosopher's Stone 1,710,045 Warner -30 8 497 57,496,638

http://web.archive.org/web/20020207054619/http://www.boxofficemojo.com:80/intl/data/harrypotter.htm

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I would say the hobbit did increase big time year after year whilst other IP's didn't increase as much. It might have been a big hit in china if LOTR was released in this period.

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