Weekend Thread: Actuals - TS4 59.7, Annabelle 20.3 (31.1 5-Day), Yesterday 17, Aladdin 10.1, Pets 7.3, MIB 6.7, Endgame 6.1

[boxofficeth]

OMG this is the least attended pre-4 July weekend since 1990.

 

Annabelle should have stayed open on Friday. It would have hit bigger headlines with 30+M opening.

 

Yesterday could be a sleeper hit or a one week wonder. I hope for the former tho

[AlexMA]

2 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

Since we didn't get any real fudging this weekend (sadly), let's look back at some old fudges.  Disney's fudging of A Wrinkle in Time when Incredibles 2 released is pretty hilarious:

 

13

31

A Wrinkle in Time

BV

$1,678,797

+1,551.4%

245

+88

 

 

And of course, Spectre being dragged across 200M over 2 months:
 

Jan 22–24	30	$170,228	-41.6%	217	-71	$784	$199,270,555	12
Jan 29–31	39	$132,751	-22.0%	195	-22	$681	$199,475,816	13
Feb 5–7	43	$67,322	-49.3%	115	-80	$585	$199,591,466	14
Feb 12–14	51	$37,813	-43.8%	47	-68	$805	$199,658,147	15
Feb 12–15	50	$42,473	-36.9%	47	-68	$904	$199,662,807	15
Feb 19–21	37	$108,423	+187%	340	+293	$319	$199,778,275	16
Feb 26–28	59	$23,156	-78.6%	92	-248	$252	$199,847,683	17
Mar 4–6	54	$29,757	+28.5%	63	-29	$472	$199,890,642	18
Mar 11–13	51	$41,979	+41.1%	16	-47	$2,624	$199,948,480	19
Mar 18–20	52	$44,791	+6.7%	9	-7	$4,977	$200,011,902	20

You buy it up to and including weekend 16, when they tried really hard to get it there, but it didn't happen. What came after was some grade A fudging indeed. Like look at that weekend 20 PTA, if that's not a "we bought all the showtimes" then I don't know what is.

 

But these are all babies compared to the fudge of all fudges, getting Transformers 4 to open North of $100 million. But that I can excuse as at the time Paramount were in a tough situation and opening lower than that would have meant many people would have to lose their jobs over there. So fudging numbers to save jobs, yeah, I can get behind that.

[Krissykins]

28 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Any Annabelle OS numbers?

$45m overseas 

1 hour ago, cdsacken said:

I mean it opened for half of Toy Story 3 and the total will be less than half. Not sure, which film? SLOP2 is doing awful

Yeh that’s definitely wrong. Local currency, 3 day opening 👍🏻

[cdsacken]

Just now, Krissykins said:

$45m overseas 

Yeh that’s definitely wrong. Local currency, 3 day opening 👍🏻

No doubt currency has been a killer!

[RamblinRed]

IMO aladdin drop will be closer to TS4 drop.

 

AE will improve to - as mentioned by someone else I think it will end up around 5.8 (5.75). I'm expecting around a 30% drop today. It will  likely have the worst drop of any of the Top 12. July 4th week should help keep it afloat some DOM, but by next Sunday i expect it will largely return to the levels it was before the re-release. 

 

As of 11 am there are 151 tickets sold for AE around me. That is for 15 shows across 5 theaters. One theater dropped an early showing of it today. 

That's out of 1,716 tickets available.

 

I'm interested to see how well it did internationally. with July 4th just being a US holiday I think the Intl numbers will tumble quickly.

 

Much like the original release I think the re-release will be pretty frontloaded. 

 

 

 

[AlexMA]

Just going to leave this here for the lols:

 

Wow, talk about fudging:

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$841,318,161	99.8%
+ Foreign:	$1,920,000	0.2%
= Worldwide:	$843,238,161

 

71	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	Fox	$848.8	$380.3	44.8%	$468.5	55.2%	2005^
2	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$843.2	$841.3	99.8%	$1.9	0.2%	2019
72	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	P/DW	$836.3	$402.1	48.1%	$434.2	51.9%	2009

 

Going from number 2 all-time to 72, ouch. But seriously, someone is pressing all the wrong buttons on box office mojo today.

[LawrenceBrolivier]

21 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Why is Disney projecting such harsh Sunday drops for Aladdin and Endgame? If anything shouldn’t 4th of July week help Sunday?

Studio projections are very cheap, and very easy ways to manipulate buzz. They're part of the marketing. Disney is very good at marketing, and always have been, for the most part. If they're predicting harsh drops, it's not for any other real reason than when the films do better than the projection, people will report on that, and it will make the movies look more "phenomenal" than they really were. And if they don't, well, then they get points for being "right," which... on the internet... is almost as valuable as actual money. 

 

Projections are a very weird thing for everyone to focus on simply because they're essentially made-up numbers direct from the studio. If what you're concerned about is how much money and how many tickets got sold, projections probably aren't that big a deal, and maybe shouldn't be.... if what you're concerned with is being able to talk about whether something lived up to or fell short of expectations.... then projections are super important. 

The Toy Story 4 OW seemed to be an interesting wake-up-calls in the blogs... that maybe they shouldn't be paying so much attention to inaccurate projections from studios and "experts" who have admitted they don't know what they're doing past a certain point.... and focus more on things like "did a lot of people see this, did those people like it, and is it making more money than it cost." 

But it really does seem like once the numbers started getting permanently ridiculous, people who follow the boxoffice stopped using returns as a yardstick, and started using projections instead. I think its because using projections makes it easier to claim winners and losers even when "losers" are still clearing 50-100mil in DOM profits. 

[VanillaSkies]

49 minutes ago, jj99 said:

Again, ridiculous Sunday drops for both Aladdin and Endgame.

 

Not going to happen. Decent increase incoming.

 

Aladdin probably closer to 9.8 and Endgame 5.8

Especially given the holiday in Canada tomorrow, meaning stronger Sunday evening showings up north.

[MOVIEGUY]

14 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

Studio projections are very cheap, and very easy ways to manipulate buzz. They're part of the marketing. Disney is very good at marketing, and always have been, for the most part. If they're predicting harsh drops, it's not for any other real reason than when the films do better than the projection, people will report on that, and it will make the movies look more "phenomenal" than they really were. And if they don't, well, then they get points for being "right," which... on the internet... is almost as valuable as actual money. 

 

Projections are a very weird thing for everyone to focus on simply because they're essentially made-up numbers direct from the studio. If what you're concerned about is how much money and how many tickets got sold, projections probably aren't that big a deal, and maybe shouldn't be.... if what you're concerned with is being able to talk about whether something lived up to or fell short of expectations.... then projections are super important. 

The Toy Story 4 OW seemed to be an interesting wake-up-calls in the blogs... that maybe they shouldn't be paying so much attention to inaccurate projections from studios and "experts" who have admitted they don't know what they're doing past a certain point.... and focus more on things like "did a lot of people see this, did those people like it, and is it making more money than it cost." 

But it really does seem like once the numbers started getting permanently ridiculous, people who follow the boxoffice stopped using returns as a yardstick, and started using projections instead. I think its because using projections makes it easier to claim winners and losers even when "losers" are still clearing 50-100mil in DOM profits. 

All this. It's like people think how much money a movie was "supposed" to make is more important than... how much it actually made. Like when everyone kept calling Glass an underperformer despite making over $200M on a $20M production budget, which by any definition is very successful film. BUT BUT PROJECTIONS!

[meriodejaneiro]

19 minutes ago, AlexMA said:

Just going to leave this here for the lols:

 

Wow, talk about fudging:

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$841,318,161	99.8%
+ Foreign:	$1,920,000	0.2%
= Worldwide:	$843,238,161

 

71	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	Fox	$848.8	$380.3	44.8%	$468.5	55.2%	2005^
2	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$843.2	$841.3	99.8%	$1.9	0.2%	2019
72	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	P/DW	$836.3	$402.1	48.1%	$434.2	51.9%	2009

 

Going from number 2 all-time to 72, ouch. But seriously, someone is pressing all the wrong buttons on box office mojo today.

I'll tell you what's happening ... Disney is fudging every single Disney movie ever with EG intl. money, here's the proof...

 

Avengers: Endgame   Domestic Total as of Jun. 30, 2019: $841,318,161 (Estimate) Distributor: Buena Vista Release Date: April 26, 2019 Genre: Action / Adventure Runtime: 3 hrs. 1 min. MPAA Rating: PG-13 Production Budget: $356 million

Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic:  $841,318,161    99.8% + Foreign:  $1,920,000    0.2% = Worldwide:  $843,238,161

[jedijake]

Expected more from TS4 but oh well. With nothing much this weekend and a weaker-than-expected OW, a drop of over 50% is not that great.

[Deep Wang]

49 minutes ago, AlexMA said:

Just going to leave this here for the lols:

 

Wow, talk about fudging:

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$841,318,161	99.8%
+ Foreign:	$1,920,000	0.2%
= Worldwide:	$843,238,161

 

71	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	Fox	$848.8	$380.3	44.8%	$468.5	55.2%	2005^
2	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$843.2	$841.3	99.8%	$1.9	0.2%	2019
72	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	P/DW	$836.3	$402.1	48.1%	$434.2	51.9%	2009

 

Going from number 2 all-time to 72, ouch. But seriously, someone is pressing all the wrong buttons on box office mojo today.

 

29 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

I'll tell you what's happening ... Disney is fudging every single Disney movie ever with EG intl. money, here's the proof...

 

Avengers: Endgame   Domestic Total as of Jun. 30, 2019: $841,318,161 (Estimate) Distributor: Buena Vista Release Date: April 26, 2019 Genre: Action / Adventure Runtime: 3 hrs. 1 min. MPAA Rating: PG-13 Production Budget: $356 million

Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic:  $841,318,161    99.8% + Foreign:  $1,920,000    0.2% = Worldwide:  $843,238,161

 

 

I knew the Jim Gang was upset, but jeez...

[Nero]

2 hours ago, AlexMA said:

What an insane run Venom had over there that a Spider-Man movie is second to it. Although very different situation, and I don't mean just China here, this makes me pretty optimistic about that Joker movie, 

Joker doesn't have spectacle. And if it's R rated it won't be released in China. Joker I think might do 400M max

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, AlexMA said:

Just going to leave this here for the lols:

 

Wow, talk about fudging:

 

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$841,318,161	99.8%
+ Foreign:	$1,920,000	0.2%
= Worldwide:	$843,238,161

 

71	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	Fox	$848.8	$380.3	44.8%	$468.5	55.2%	2005^
2	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$843.2	$841.3	99.8%	$1.9	0.2%	2019
72	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	P/DW	$836.3	$402.1	48.1%	$434.2	51.9%	2009

 

Going from number 2 all-time to 72, ouch. But seriously, someone is pressing all the wrong buttons on box office mojo today.

James Cameron:

[a2k]

KOTM 3.47m away from 110m after 2m weekend. Sun drop is projected at 25%. Can do better at low-20% like last weekend.

But even otherwise, 110m+ looks good.

 

Jun 28, 2019

11

$2,000,000

-48%

1,370

$1,460

$106,530,951

5

 

 

[CJohn]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

$45m overseas 

Doesn't look great either. Thanks.

[DAJK]

woah wtf why is Annabelle's budget somewhere around 30M? That's double the last one, and doesn't this one take place mostly in one house? I haven't seen it yet, but why the heck is the budget so high?

[CJohn]

12 minutes ago, DAJK said:

woah wtf why is Annabelle's budget somewhere around 30M? That's double the last one, and doesn't this one take place mostly in one house? I haven't seen it yet, but why the heck is the budget so high?

At this point in the franchise, Vera Farmiga and Patrick Wilson don't come cheap.

[RealLyre]

16 minutes ago, DAJK said:

woah wtf why is Annabelle's budget somewhere around 30M? That's double the last one, and doesn't this one take place mostly in one house? I haven't seen it yet, but why the heck is the budget so high?

a couple of VFX demons/spirits I guess.(they looked pr good). The Nun's budget was 22M and Annabelle 3 is 27M, so not that far off 

[RealLyre]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

At this point in the franchise, Vera Farmiga and Patrick Wilson don't come cheap.

the conjuring 2 was 40M (most expensive one in the franchise but it's also the best one and they gave Wan everything he needed). I wonder how much they'll spend on Conjuring 3 considering Wan won't be directing.