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Eric Atreides

SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME WEEK THREAD l 93.6M 3-Day, 185.1M 6-Day. l ****NO SPOILERS**** | Sale $5 off Gold/Premium/Silver l Other #s - TS4 34.3, YDay 10.7, Annabelle 9.7, Aladdin 7.6, Midsommar 6.6 (10.9 5-Day)

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11 minutes ago, john2000 said:

the range imo is  350-400 ( pretty big range i know)

I think it's more like 360-400, with the movie most likely to fall somewhere in the middle, around 370-390 million. I can't see it falling below a 2 for its 6-day multiplier, so that takes care of the 360+. And the rest is within that 2.05-2.15 range around a 2.1 multi.

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21 minutes ago, AlexMA said:

I think it's more like 360-400, with the movie most likely to fall somewhere in the middle, around 370-390 million. I can't see it falling below a 2 for its 6-day multiplier, so that takes care of the 360+. And the rest is within that 2.05-2.15 range around a 2.1 multi.

yep for 400 it would need a multi of around 2,15, slightly lower or on par with homecoming, in my opinion thats daoble

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1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

ASM - 1.9x 6 day (with a 68%  3rd w/e drop in the face of TDKR)

SM2 - 2.07 x 6 day

 

ASM OD /6 Day multiple was - $35m/$137m  = 3.914

SM2: OD/6 Day -  $40m/$180m = 4.45

SM:FFH: OD/ 6 Day -  $39.255m/ $183.5m = 4.675

 

TLK is on the horizon for FFH's 3rd w/e but not much after that.  It would need a 2.18 x 6 to hit $400m which looks difficult.  A 2.1 - more possible and slightly better than SM2 would mean $385m

 

 

I would give it 2.125x tops. The weekend made up about 45% of TASM's opening while the weekend made up about 50% of FFH's opening. This means that FFH was 1.111 times as backloaded as TASM and if we apply that number to TASM's multiplier, it would give a multiplier of 2.125x for FFH.

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3 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I would give it 2.125x tops. The weekend made up about 45% of TASM's opening while the weekend made up about 50% of FFH's opening. This means that FFH was 1.111 times as backloaded as TASM and if we apply that number to TASM's multiplier, it would give a multiplier of 2.125x for FFH.

Interesting, though I don't see why that would be tops since ASM's overall multiplier was subpar compared to SM2 and severely damaged by TDKR

 

 

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7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Interesting, though I don't see why that would be tops since ASM's overall multiplier was subpar compared to SM2 and severely damaged by TDKR

 

 

agreed tha amazing spiderman is not the best comp, as i dont believe that ffh will have a 70% drop, plus 70%  , in the third 3 weekend does a  big damage to multi

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@MCKillswitch123 biggest OW ever for a single hero movie for the MCU here and the first to cross the 100.000 tickets sold mark on OW.

 

https://www.ica-ip.pt/fotos/downloads/ranking_fds_4_a_7_julho_2019_112425d231f56b0430.pdf

 

Only the Avengers titles had bigger OWs (and Ultron and Avengers are only bigger because both had full 5 days OWs, while Far From Home only had previews Wednesday night).

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I see ~ 390M. Range is 370-410M.

 

•1st
Tue (39.3) => 39.3
Wed (27) [-29%] => 66.3
Thu (25.2) [-7%] => 91.5
Fri (32.5) [+30%] => 124
Sat (34) [+10%] => 158
Sun (25.5) [-26%] => 183.5 <= 6-day Opening Week
Mon (10.5) [-59%] => 194
Tue (15) [+43%] => 209
Wed (9) [-40%] => 218
Thu (8.5) [-6%] => 226.5

•2nd
- weekend (46) [-49%] = 272.5
Fri (13.5) [+57%]
Sat (18.5) [+37%]
Sun (14) [-23%]
-‎ weekdays (23.5) = 296

•3rd
- weekend (23) [-50%] = 319 <= The Lion King
-‎ weekdays (12) = 331

•3rd
- weekend (14) [-40%] = 345
-‎ weekdays (8) = 353

•4th (14) [-35%] = 367
•5th (9) [-33%] = 376
•6th (6) [-33%] = 382
•7th (4) [-28%] = 386

=> Final = 393M

Domestic: 390M (370-410)
Overseas: 760M (730-790)
+ China: 210M
+ OS-China: 550M (520-580)
Total: 1.150B (1.100-1.200)

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Not shocked FFH will go down with actuals. that Sunday estimate was very aggressive. I'm expecting the same for ACH and Yday as they also went with very aggressive holds. Sony wanted to report the 185 in the Monday morning papers. That is a typical studio decision as only movie nerds pay any attention to the actuals when the come out. The media reports the estimates Monday morning and then pretty much pays no attention until the next Monday.

 

TS4 and Aladdin will likely rise with actuals as Disney, as usual, took very conservative Sunday drops. AE could rise a little to.

 

Excellent start for FFH. 365-405 is the range imo with 385 +-5 the most likely finishing area. Somewhere very close to GOTG2. If actuals come in at 383.5 than it needs a 6 day multiplier just a hair better than HC to get to 400. Not impossible but not the most likely outcome either.

 

TS4 is looking pretty likely to cross 400M. it is 17.5M up on TS3 with estimates and I think that will raise a little more with actuals. if it held that it would be looking at 432-433. it's going to give some back this week as day 18 for TS3 is July 5th - so it gets a July 4th week bump this week (TS4 is likely to give up 8M to TS3 on Monday). But by Tuesday they should be doing pretty similar numbers. Feels like it should end up very close to TS3's final DOM. Going to end up being the 3rd or 4th highest grossing Pixar movie DOM and probably 5th or 6th highest grossing animated film DOM ever.

 

Aladdin keeps chugging along. Can it get to 350M DOM? It's over 920 WW as of Sunday. Can it get to 1B? Going to be close. Certainly going past 975. I could see Disney deciding to expand it Labor Day weekend to try to get it across 1B.

 

Yday should be over 46M after next weekend and closing on 50M by the time TLK comes out.

 

ACH after its amazing Friday increase had a pretty quiet weekend and will likely have a bigger Sunday drop than estimated. Actuals will likely be closer to 9.5. With Crawl coming out next weekend I think Child's Play is largely going to disappear and ACH could take a hit, but it's going to do at least 60M for WB. 

 

JW3 keeps chugging along too. Can it hang in theaters long enough to get to 170 DOM? Stuber and Crawl are likely to take some of its theaters this week and then TLK is likely to boot it out next week as it will take alot of screens.

 

AE keeps crawling closer to Avatar. Still needs 15.6M though (2772.4 vs 2787.9). With it having the 2nd biggest drop in the top 10 this week (behind ACH) I expect it is going to lose a significant chunk of theaters on Friday and will certainly lose most of them when TLK comes out. Marvel will have to do another expansion if they want to push it over.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

I see ~ 390M. Range is 370-410M.

 

•1st
Tue (39.3) => 39.3
Wed (27) [-29%] => 66.3
Thu (25.2) [-7%] => 91.5
Fri (32.5) [+30%] => 124
Sat (34) [+10%] => 158
Sun (25.5) [-26%] => 183.5 <= 6-day Opening Week
Mon (10.5) [-59%] => 194
Tue (15) [+43%] => 209
Wed (9) [-40%] => 218
Thu (8.5) [-6%] => 226.5

•2nd
- weekend (46) [-49%] = 272.5
Fri (13.5) [+57%]
Sat (18.5) [+37%]
Sun (14) [-23%]
-‎ weekdays (23.5) = 296

•3rd
- weekend (23) [-50%] = 319 <= The Lion King
-‎ weekdays (12) = 331

•3rd
- weekend (14) [-40%] = 345
-‎ weekdays (8) = 353

•4th (14) [-35%] = 367
•5th (9) [-33%] = 376
•6th (6) [-33%] = 382
•7th (4) [-28%] = 386

=> Final = 393M

Domestic: 390M (370-410)
Overseas: 760M (730-790)
+ China: 210M
+ OS-China: 550M (520-580)
Total: 1.150B (1.100-1.200)

Yes, two consecutive 50% drops and then stabilizing (after The Lion King) sounds about right here. Fingers crossed for that since I really liked the movie, also we need Sony to want to keep working with Marvel Studios, but I also wouldn't be surprised if one of those next two weekends ends up down in the 55% range, which could be made back in the weeks after. Really it's all down to next weekend and where that lands, and right now I'm thinking anywhere from down 45% to down 55%.

 

I'm maybe not as confident in your OS numbers, as I would be more than happy with anything over 1 billion , and if it gets to 1.1 then great, but I think 1.15 is stretching it a bit.

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36 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Not shocked FFH will go down with actuals. that Sunday estimate was very aggressive. I'm expecting the same for ACH and Yday as they also went with very aggressive holds. Sony wanted to report the 185 in the Monday morning papers. That is a typical studio decision as only movie nerds pay any attention to the actuals when the come out. The media reports the estimates Monday morning and then pretty much pays no attention until the next Monday.

 

TS4 and Aladdin will likely rise with actuals as Disney, as usual, took very conservative Sunday drops. AE could rise a little to.

 

Excellent start for FFH. 365-405 is the range imo with 385 +-5 the most likely finishing area. Somewhere very close to GOTG2. If actuals come in at 383.5 than it needs a 6 day multiplier just a hair better than HC to get to 400. Not impossible but not the most likely outcome either.

 

TS4 is looking pretty likely to cross 400M. it is 17.5M up on TS3 with estimates and I think that will raise a little more with actuals. if it held that it would be looking at 432-433. it's going to give some back this week as day 18 for TS3 is July 5th - so it gets a July 4th week bump this week (TS4 is likely to give up 8M to TS3 on Monday). But by Tuesday they should be doing pretty similar numbers. Feels like it should end up very close to TS3's final DOM. Going to end up being the 3rd or 4th highest grossing Pixar movie DOM and probably 5th or 6th highest grossing animated film DOM ever.

 

Aladdin keeps chugging along. Can it get to 350M DOM? It's over 920 WW as of Sunday. Can it get to 1B? Going to be close. Certainly going past 975. I could see Disney deciding to expand it Labor Day weekend to try to get it across 1B.

 

Yday should be over 46M after next weekend and closing on 50M by the time TLK comes out.

 

ACH after its amazing Friday increase had a pretty quiet weekend and will likely have a bigger Sunday drop than estimated. Actuals will likely be closer to 9.5. With Crawl coming out next weekend I think Child's Play is largely going to disappear and ACH could take a hit, but it's going to do at least 60M for WB. 

 

JW3 keeps chugging along too. Can it hang in theaters long enough to get to 170 DOM? Stuber and Crawl are likely to take some of its theaters this week and then TLK is likely to boot it out next week as it will take alot of screens.

 

AE keeps crawling closer to Avatar. Still needs 15.6M though (2772.4 vs 2787.9). With it having the 2nd biggest drop in the top 10 this week (behind ACH) I expect it is going to lose a significant chunk of theaters on Friday and will certainly lose most of them when TLK comes out. Marvel will have to do another expansion if they want to push it over.

 

 

 

TS3 will make up quite a bit of ground this week as it finally has its July 4th frame, the Monday number in particular will be double whatever TS4 does today. So the 17m position isnt locked to stay and may very well be less than 10m by end of week. 

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I finally saw FFH yesterday and wow! It is remarkably underwhelming. The story is ridiculous. The villain is underwhelming. The fight scenes are laughable, even before analyzing them. The cast was fine and Holland is great in the role. Unfortunately the movie as a whole is just not that memorable. 5/10.

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3 hours ago, a2k said:

after the 3rd weekend, with a lot more to come...

 

Total Lifetime Grosses
Domestic:  $306,557,544    47.2%
Foreign:  $343,400,000    52.8%

Worldwide:  $649,957,544  

 

are we still wondering why they made another ts?

 

frankly i was very sceptical this movie would do this good after the forky trailer which seemed melodramtic and forced imo.

Toy Story literally was the only big Blockbuster to come out in June

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45 minutes ago, narniadis said:

TS3 will make up quite a bit of ground this week as it finally has its July 4th frame, the Monday number in particular will be double whatever TS4 does today. So the 17m position isnt locked to stay and may very well be less than 10m by end of week. 

Absolutely. I expect the difference to be sub 10M by Friday, probably less than 7. But after that I think it will stabilize some. Even 10M would mean a 425M final. And I don't think it is getting to that by the way. 

I think it is likely to end up at TS3 +- 5M.

 

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1 hour ago, AlexMA said:

Yes, two consecutive 50% drops and then stabilizing (after The Lion King) sounds about right here. Fingers crossed for that since I really liked the movie, also we need Sony to want to keep working with Marvel Studios, but I also wouldn't be surprised if one of those next two weekends ends up down in the 55% range, which could be made back in the weeks after. Really it's all down to next weekend and where that lands, and right now I'm thinking anywhere from down 45% to down 55%.

 

I'm maybe not as confident in your OS numbers, as I would be more than happy with anything over 1 billion , and if it gets to 1.1 then great, but I think 1.15 is stretching it a bit.

second weekend could ho either, way however, around a 45% drop is also very much possible, not likely though as of yet, based from other tuesday openers, a 45% is not something unrealistic

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7 minutes ago, john2000 said:

second weekend could ho either, way however, around a 45% drop is also very much possible, not likely though as of yet, based from other tuesday openers, a 45% is not something unrealistic

I think the second weekend drop will be better than 50%, zero competition and a lot of demand was met on the preceding weekdays. Question is can the third survive TLK monster.

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38 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Absolutely. I expect the difference to be sub 10M by Friday, probably less than 7. But after that I think it will stabilize some. Even 10M would mean a 425M final. And I don't think it is getting to that by the way. 

I think it is likely to end up at TS3 +- 5M.

 

Yup I would agree. Just trying to make sure that things get said before people start freaking out again 😂

 

400m is my end goal, beating TS3 is eh to me since I never expected it to begin with so its a bonus. 

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4 hours ago, a2k said:

2x * 183.5 6-day (using Charlie's new Sunday) would give 367 dom, 10% more than SMH

 

SMH grossed 207M after its 45M second weekend. Then it added around 120M for the rest of its run.

 

I am expecting a similar or even slightly higuer 45M second weekend for FFH to around 270M DOM. From there matching SMH run, a possible 120M late run to 390M.

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1 hour ago, LonePirate said:

I finally saw FFH yesterday and wow! It is remarkably underwhelming.  Unfortunately the movie as a whole is just not that memorable. 5/10.

Sorry you didn't like it.  Hopefully the next movie you see is more enjoyable for you.

 

I disagree and found the movie utterly charming and thought the villain was very compelling.  I'm happy it had a strong first week at the box office.

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