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Eric Atreides

SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME WEEK THREAD l 93.6M 3-Day, 185.1M 6-Day. l ****NO SPOILERS**** | Sale $5 off Gold/Premium/Silver l Other #s - TS4 34.3, YDay 10.7, Annabelle 9.7, Aladdin 7.6, Midsommar 6.6 (10.9 5-Day)

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13 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Projection from the very early numbers around $50-52mn (+/-5%) true Tuesday.

Great, so potentially looking at 55M+ with midnight. Pretty much locks up 200M+ 6 day.

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Using the middle of that true Tuesday, if it follows Amazing Spider-Man excluding that film's midnights/Monday Canadian previews:

51 Tue

43.2 Wed

29.3 Thu

37.9 Fri

43.8 Sat

33.1 Sun

238.3M 6-Day (excluding midnights)

 

If it follows Transformers:

51 Tue

53.2 Wed

35.1 Thu

41.5 Fri

47.1 Sat

40.6 Sun

268.5M 6-Day (excluding midnights)

 

This seems like it's set to do bonkers numbers, and it will, but maybe not to those extremes. Not only because of the lengthy year gaps, but also because those movies had the 4th land on a Wednesday instead of Thursday. Sadly, Despicable Me 2 and Lone Ranger didn't have their film open on Tuesday, so we're kind of in uncharted territory. But that number indicates 200M 6-Day as the minimum, arguably even something like 215M, which is very very good either way.

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17 minutes ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

"True" Tuesday? There were no Monday previews, this was the first actual midnight-release in what feels like a decade.

Midnights would still be counted outside of True Tues since the "day" begins at 6am for showings.  That's how they divide previews that run through the night into the morning from OD.

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6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Using the middle of that true Tuesday, if it follows Amazing Spider-Man excluding that film's midnights/Monday Canadian previews:

51 Tue

43.2 Wed

29.3 Thu

37.9 Fri

43.8 Sat

33.1 Sun

238.3M 6-Day (excluding midnights)

 

If it follows Transformers:

51 Tue

53.2 Wed

35.1 Thu

41.5 Fri

47.1 Sat

40.6 Sun

268.5M 6-Day (excluding midnights)

 

This seems like it's set to do bonkers numbers, and it will, but maybe not to those extremes. Not only because of the lengthy year gaps, but also because those movies had the 4th land on a Wednesday instead of Thursday. Sadly, Despicable Me 2 and Lone Ranger didn't have their film open on Tuesday, so we're kind of in uncharted territory. But that number indicates 200M 6-Day as the minimum, arguably even something like 215M, which is very very good either way.

4th on a Thursday is actually better. That means that its Day 2 will be the 3rd which should soften the drop, and then Friday will be higher because more people will have taken the day off and made it a long weekend.

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6 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Using the middle of that true Tuesday, if it follows Amazing Spider-Man excluding that film's midnights/Monday Canadian previews:

51 Tue

43.2 Wed

29.3 Thu

37.9 Fri

43.8 Sat

33.1 Sun

238.3M 6-Day (excluding midnights)

 

 

I was thinking of using TASM as daily comps but I feel Wednesday drop will be bigger as OD is inflated by less preview than normal (if discount day is there, that will also affect).

 

But I also think Wednesday hold will be better, as wom will be better and July 4th. Then better growth on Saturday as well.

 

Cume, pretty much in same vicinity.

 

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My summer pic winner, Spidey, looks like he's throwing the gauntlet down against The Lion King:)...should be quite the month to watch, if Spidey goes as huge this week as some of these early numbers seem to indicate - I'm keeping myself realistic and not expecting those numbers, but if they come in...it will be like Spidey saying, your move, Simba:)...

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2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I was thinking of using TASM as daily comps but I feel Wednesday drop will be bigger as OD is inflated by less preview than normal (if discount day is there, that will also affect).

 

But I also think Wednesday hold will be better, as wom will be better and July 4th. Then better growth on Saturday as well.

  

Cume, pretty much in same vicinity.

 

Bigger Friday bump too as more people would have taken a long weekend with the 4th coming on a Thursday.

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1 minute ago, Menor said:

Bigger Friday bump too as more people would have taken a long weekend with the 4th coming on a Thursday.

Fridays this year have been shit so far, barring Endgame. Even Cap Marvel was underperformer to a bit. Saturday have been stronger.

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40 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

In my head I am being conservative. We will know in some hour how film behave.

Charlie with all due respect it's 11 a.m. on the East coast the movie has not even started playing yet. I just got off of my morning piece of work so I have not read the thread yet but how can you possibly say with any degree of certainty what kind of number far from home is going to do when it hasn't even started playing yet anywhere?

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13 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I was thinking of using TASM as daily comps but I feel Wednesday drop will be bigger as OD is inflated by less preview than normal (if discount day is there, that will also affect).

 

But I also think Wednesday hold will be better, as wom will be better and July 4th. Then better growth on Saturday as well.

 

Cume, pretty much in same vicinity.

 

Maybe discount Tuesday bump will be off set by the fact that no numbers are being added from the previous day. 

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3 minutes ago, baumer said:

Charlie with all due respect it's 11 a.m. on the East coast the movie has not even started playing yet. I just got off of my morning piece of work so I have not read the thread yet but how can you possibly say with any degree of certainty what kind of number far from home is going to do when it hasn't even started playing yet anywhere?

Not that big of a difference but it started playing at 9:45 am in the DMV area. Not sure how data to extrapolate from that but shows have started in this area of the east coast.

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5 minutes ago, baumer said:

Charlie with all due respect it's 11 a.m. on the East coast the movie has not even started playing yet. I just got off of my morning piece of work so I have not read the thread yet but how can you possibly say with any degree of certainty what kind of number far from home is going to do when it hasn't even started playing yet anywhere?

Historical comps based on presales probably. He is usually pretty accurate with these early projections.

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6 minutes ago, Menor said:

Historical comps based on presales probably. He is usually pretty accurate with these early projections.

Has he been accurate with his extremely early numbers on OD? Didn't he say 54 mil OD for Toy Story 4 for his extremely early numbers? 

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