SPIDER-MAN: FAR FROM HOME WEEK THREAD l 93.6M 3-Day, 185.1M 6-Day. l ****NO SPOILERS**** | Sale $5 off Gold/Premium/Silver l Other #s - TS4 34.3, YDay 10.7, Annabelle 9.7, Aladdin 7.6, Midsommar 6.6 (10.9 5-Day)

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, VenomXXR said:

 

I mean it's going to be a roughly 20% jump in the US. I haven't been following a lot of the other established markets, but are they really that much better in those established markets? 

For instance, I know France had a big jump, but it's still under 2 of the older Spider-Man films, right? And a lot of Europe wasn't really "in" on SH films until Infinity War and Endgame hooked a lot of people. 

I'm going by the 26.5 million Friday estimate which would imply about a 170 million opening, just 10% above Homecoming. That's what I'm saying is an unusually low increase given the holiday. Other established markets are more like +30% or so, and Endgame was a big breakout in the US as well so I would expect it to have an effect. The movie will have a great increase WW so I'm not too bothered, it's just a weird curiosity.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, Menor said:

I'm going by the 26.5 million Friday estimate which would imply about a 170 million opening, just 10% above Homecoming. That's what I'm saying is an unusually low increase given the holiday. Other established markets are more like +30% or so, and Endgame was a big breakout in the US as well so I would expect it to have an effect. The movie will have a great increase WW so I'm not too bothered, it's just a weird curiosity.

 

Fair. What's Australia looking like? Usually they're pretty close to the domestic market in terms of reception/BO percentage. 

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, Menor said:

I'm going by the 26.5 million Friday estimate which would imply about a 170 million opening, just 10% above Homecoming. That's what I'm saying is an unusually low increase given the holiday. Other established markets are more like +30% or so, and Endgame was a big breakout in the US as well so I would expect it to have an effect. The movie will have a great increase WW so I'm not too bothered, it's just a weird curiosity.

Iron Man's presence had boosted SMH by some and it was evident in the huge OD and the not so good Sat hold from true Friday. Also the 6-day for SMH includes Thu previews unlike for FFH which did just 3m odd. Maybe FFH will manage to come close to SMH's 6-day to dom multiplier of 2.15-2.20x despite being a sequel because of those factors. With 170 that would fetch 365-375.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Fair. What's Australia looking like? Usually they're pretty close to the domestic market in terms of reception/BO percentage. 

It opened on a Monday for some reason (no holidays) and did AUD 6.97 million in 3 days. Homecoming had a traditional Thursday opening and did 10.83 million in its first 4 days. So...idk

[RealLyre]

27 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

 It is so unpredictable. I am really tempering my expectations for WW84. I thought it would for sure pass the first one. Now, I am not so sure. That is not a concern for  FFH, as it will undoubtedly gross more than HC. For a sequel, that is a nice accomplishment. 

expecting WW84 to surpass the first one would be like expecting BP2 to pass BP1 domestically. which while isn't impossible, it's very unlikely.

 

breakout hits rarely see an increase on their sequels. especially domestically see Avengers 1> Age of Ultron or TFA>TLJ or DP2>DP1

Edited July 5, 2019 by RealLyre
word

[TMP]

5 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

expecting WW84 to surpass the first one would be like expecting BP2 to pass BP1 domestically. which while isn't impossible, it's very unlikely.

 

breakout hits rarely see an increase on their sequels. especially domestically see Avengers 1> Age of Ultron or TFA>TLJ or DP2>DP1

Homecoming was a breakout, but Far From Home still increased ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Menor the Destroyer]

Just now, TMP said:

Homecoming was a breakout, but Far From Home still increased ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Homecoming did well but I wouldn't call it a breakout. GOTG2 is a better example imo.

[TServo2049]

I am definitely getting GOTG2 deja vu with the possibility of “We all built up expectations that this was gonna be the breakout sequel, why is it only doing modestly better than the first?” (Though that had a bigger opening, of course.)

Edited July 5, 2019 by TServo2049

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, TMP said:

Homecoming was a breakout, but Far From Home still increased ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

When one looks at expectations DP1, Spiderman1, WONDR1, IM1 are at a different level. BP taking the cake. SMH like Aquaman over-performed but didn't surprise to the same degree. Hell Aquaman surprised more than SMH with a similar dom.

 

Sequels increasing from these other movies would be impressive and shocking in BP's case. FFH beating SMH was always expected and SMH didn't set things on fire compared to expectations like those other movies.

 

@Menor gives a great example of GOTG2 though, which increased from GOTG1 which was a big break-out.

Edited July 5, 2019 by a2k

[Krissykins]

Midsommar was absolutely mental!! 

 

Some of that imagery even shocked me! 

 

Wow, what a perfect follow up to Hereditary.  

 

[Davidwested]

41 minutes ago, Ms Lady Hawk said:

Spider-Man is doing fine and meeting realistic expectations. This summer has really taught me that we cannot take the box office for granted. It is so unpredictable. I am really tempering my expectations for WW84. I thought it would for sure pass the first one. Now, I am not so sure. That is not a concern for  FFH, as it will undoubtedly gross more than HC. For a sequel, that is a nice accomplishment. 

It might not surpass the first movie domestic. But it will definitely increase international.

[Davidwested]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Midsommar was absolutely mental!! 

 

Some of that imagery even shocked me! 

 

Wow, what a perfect follow up to Hereditary.  

 

Hereditary was frightening and very evil. Midsummer was just a weird mess imo.

[Krissykins]

4 minutes ago, Davidwested said:

Hereditary was frightening and very evil. Midsummer was just a weird mess imo.

It was absolutely weird 

[UserHN]

1 hour ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

I could argue that FFH is the first MCU film to be hurt rather than helped by its proximity to an Avengers film.

Nope. This one will make $1B+.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, UserHN said:

Nope. This one will make $1B+.

Yeah international increases are very good and it's a bit early to say that this definitely won't get a decent DOM increase.

[Krissykins]

Damn just seen the Deadline update. Sucks and Midsommar and Annabelle. 

[darthdevidem01]

41 minutes ago, TMP said:

Homecoming was a breakout, but Far From Home still increased ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

In what universe? Spider-Man 1 was a sensational breakout in terms of box office back then. 

 

Homecoming did good...nothing more nothing less. FFH was surely going to increase. 

Edited July 5, 2019 by darthdevidem01

[cdsacken]

42 minutes ago, a2k said:

When one looks at expectations DP1, Spiderman1, WONDR1, IM1 are at a different level. BP taking the cake. SMH like Aquaman over-performed but didn't surprise to the same degree. Hell Aquaman surprised more than SMH with a similar dom.

 

Sequels increasing from these other movies would be impressive and shocking in BP's case. FFH beating SMH was always expected and SMH didn't set things on fire compared to expectations like those other movies.

 

@Menor gives a great example of GOTG2 though, which increased from GOTG1 which was a big break-out.

No doubt BP sequel will drop massively domestically and I love that film. Top 5 MCU film for me. #1 in rewatchability above EG and IW.

[OncomingStorm93]

1 hour ago, TMP said:

It would be doing less if it wasn't connected to Endgame...

I’m not disputing the connection. I’m talking about how this film is the 4th movie with Spider-Man in the past 15 months. 6th since 2016. 

 

FFH is going to do very well in the box office, maybe even great, but I believe a solid year distance from Endgame (and extra breathing room from Homecoming and SpiderVerse) would have been better for the franchise.

[RealLyre]

1 hour ago, TMP said:

Homecoming was a breakout, but Far From Home still increased ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

a spider-man/iron man team up movie (that's what the marketing sold it as, even if the actual movie was not the case) doing barely as much as the first Iron Man movies isn't exactly what you should call a breakout hit but go off.