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charlie Jatinder

Monday (7/15) Numbers

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FFH should have better Tuesday bumps this summer than Homecoming had... That should give it a consistent edge.

 

Endgame should be very close to Avatar by next Monday even without OS numbers. 

Edited by JohnnyGossamer

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2 minutes ago, Permanent Magnet said:

How Aladdin dropped to 710K ??

 

That is 61%drop!

 

this movie wont have amazing drops all the time you know :d

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21 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
Spider-Man: Far from Home $5,560,000
Toy Story 4 $2,860,000
Crawl $1,350,000
Stuber $860,000
Yesterday $880,000
Aladdin (2019) $710,000
Annabelle Comes Home $790,000
Midsommar $560,000
The Secret Life of Pets 2 $500,000
Avengers: Endgame $310,000

Guys I think he means 810 for Aladdin

 

You can see he has Aladdin above Annabelle which has 790

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16 minutes ago, BoilingHotCoffee said:

Guys I think he means 810 for Aladdin

 

You can see he has Aladdin above Annabelle which has 790

at the same time though the has stuber over yesterday so

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good hold for FFH, though below HC's hold for 2nd Monday.

Comparing it to CM makes no sense. It was released at a different time of the year (you can't compare a summer weekday with a winter/spring weekday) and CM got about a 20M boost from AE's release at the end of its run. FFH will not get that at the end.

 

HC is the obvious comp. if you just throw the first 3 days into the opening weekend total then you have the exact same release pattern.

 

I'll wait for the officials as Charlie's weekday numbers for FFH have sometimes been a little higher than actuals. But as of Sunday actuals the same run as HC would get FFH to 401.5 (if Charlie's Monday number holds it would be 401.6). So FFH is just hanging onto 400. Analytically I don't think that will last. What FFH has to weather the next 3 weekends is way more than what HC had to deal with. HC went 6 straight weeks with drops of 40% or less (all but week 3 were sub 35% drops). It had a 49.9% drop in weekend 3 where FFH is likely to have a 56-59% drop this weekend as it will lose IMAX and PLF and have to deal with a huge debut. Then next week it has to deal with TLK's second weekend (which is likely to be larger than any opening weekend HC had to face) as well as OUaTiH. And then in weekend 5 it has to deal with H&S - which could potentially open higher than any movie opened during HC's run.

 

It would be awesome for FFH To get to 400, I just see it is as unlikely. Just like I don't expect TS4 to stay in front of TS3 even though it is ahead of it right now. I think ultimately FFH will end up in the 387-391 range (GOTG2 +-2) and TS4 in the 405-410 range (3.35-3.4 multiple).

 

I'm expecting FFH to have a higher jump on Tuesday than HC and then bigger drops on Wed and Thur. Then i'm expecting it to have a weekend about 2M below HC's third weekend.

 

 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, BoilingHotCoffee said:

Guys I think he means 810 for Aladdin

 

You can see he has Aladdin above Annabelle which has 790

Yes it maybe be a typo, idk.

Edited by Permanent Magnet

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57 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:
Spider-Man: Far from Home $5,560,000
Toy Story 4 $2,860,000
Crawl $1,350,000
Aladdin $890,000
Yesterday $880,000
Stuber $860,000
Annabelle Comes Home $790,000
Midsommar $560,000
The Secret Life of Pets 2 $500,000
Avengers: Endgame $310,000

Few typos.

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Looking at performance of past Spider-Man franchises, FFH not grossing considerably less than HC would be a win, right?

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Spiderman HC will be around 320 million by Sunday and after that it will just benefit from good summer legs. 

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FFH $5,560,000 (-60% / - 48.7%)

TS4 $2,860,000 (-55.93% / -31.4%)

Crawl $1,350,000 (-60% / ----)

Aladdin $890,000 (-50.7% / -11.7%)

Yesterday $880,000 (-55.7% / -22%)

Stuber $860,000 (-61% / ----)

Annabelle $790,000 (-52% / - 38.2%)

Midsommar $560,000 (-51.1% / - 42%)

SLOP2 $500,000 (-49.3% / -25.2%)

Endgame $310,000 (-53.4% / -18.5%)

Edited by danhtruong5
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The Endgame numbers are assuming the weekend numbers won't be adjusted down because I still have weekend at $1.75mn. Going by that, Monday would be $275k

 

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1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

The Endgame numbers are assuming the weekend numbers won't be adjusted down because I still have weekend at $1.75mn. Going by that, Monday would be $275k

 

The weekend numbers will be adjusted down???

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5 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

The Endgame numbers are assuming the weekend numbers won't be adjusted down because I still have weekend at $1.75mn. Going by that, Monday would be $275k

 

Even so, it should still be up for second (if weekend holds) or third best weekly hold in Top 10.

 

Aladdin keeps owning insane holds.  :bravo:

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That would mean today is the first day where Aladdin is above the respective day for Black Panther (until now that was the only movie where every single day was above the respective Aladdin day). 

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6 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

The weekend numbers will be adjusted down???

he said if that will happen not that it will  , 

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Aladdin is still 4th in the dailies on its 53rd day. What a craptastic summer it has been with so many bad and forgettable films this year.

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2 hours ago, stripe said:

Anyways, I don't get why BOM doesnt make a showdown with Far From Home vs Homecoming vs Amazing SM vs SM2. July's Spiderman movies. Useful info, IMHO

I think they do in general less of those showdowns than in the past.

E.g. SMFFH got no showdown at all, in the past a movie with a release theatre count of 4000+ would have even gotten one if the movie wasn't part of a franchise, even often enough more than one showdown.

 

I kinda love those showdowns, not happy about that development

 

 

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Quote

On the other hand, we still saw a serious decline with the overall box office down 31% from last weekend to $126 million. Worse still, this was 24% lower than the same weekend last year and this left 2019 further behind last year’s pace. It is now behind 2018 by 8.6% or $570 million at $6.10 billion to $6.67 billion.

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/240230830-Weekend-Wrap-Up-Spider-Man-Repeats-on-Top-but-2019-Takes-Another-Hit

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