Thor: Love and Thunder | July 8, 2022 | Directed by Oscar Winner Taika Waititi | Ninth most profitable movie of 2022

[XXR vs XXR]

$160m OW
$400m DOM
$900m OS 

[Legion Again]

2 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

$160m OW
$400m DOM
$900m OS 

180

450

850   
 

At last, my work is done.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Arendelle Legion said:

180

450

850   
 

At last, my work is done.

 

Overshooting me on almost every OW and DOM and undershooting most of my OS. Interesting. Not sure I've seen anything thus far that would lead to 50% OW increases for a lot of these films. Increases sure, but I'd be careful of Frozen 2 Syndrome lol

[Legion Again]

22 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Overshooting me on almost every OW and DOM and undershooting most of my OS. Interesting. Not sure I've seen anything thus far that would lead to 50% OW increases for a lot of these films. Increases sure, but I'd be careful of Frozen 2 Syndrome lol

It’s possible that I am undershooiting OS, as I did these a bit casually. Many of your DOM:OS ratios seemed a bit high, but I didn’t consult a bunch of historical data. Doing so now, 4:9=30.7% DOM would be a franchise low for solos and matched only by Endgame itself.  
 

Admittedly that franchise low was Thor2 with 32%, but a Thor3 rebounded to 37%, so I feel fine with 34.6%. OTOH maybe things will reach a new level of OS heaviness post Endgame 🤷‍♂️  
 

The next dozen or so should all be a lot easier to predict after we’ve got the first 2,3,4 of ‘em, but I assume going essentially blind is most of the fun here in the first place 😛 

Edited December 29, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[Sam]

My biggest question right now about this movie is will Taika be brave enough to keep Thor fat? 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Sam said:

My biggest question right now about this movie is will Taika be brave enough to keep Thor fat? 

Brave enough to keep Thor fat and smart enough to only do so if it serves the story #GodTaika

[Sam]

8 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Brave enough to keep Thor fat and smart enough to only do so if it serves the story #GodTaika

If keeping Thor fat is the way to bring back n00bmaster69 then I say it serves the story. 
 

Kidding aside, I wonder how the timeline will work, if this comes before GOTG3, then Thor must have split soon after he got with them. That’s quite sad, I was kinda looking forward to Asgardians of the Galaxy.

[XXR vs XXR]

9 hours ago, Sam said:

If keeping Thor fat is the way to bring back n00bmaster69 then I say it serves the story. 
 

Kidding aside, I wonder how the timeline will work, if this comes before GOTG3, then Thor must have split soon after he got with them. That’s quite sad, I was kinda looking forward to Asgardians of the Galaxy.

 

Since this is all speculation, the way it goes in my head is we start the movie with the Guardians but at some point Thor finds out about Jane Foster being ill (in the comics during the Lady Thor arc she is diagnosed with cancer) and this brings Thor back to Earth. It would add a lot of gravity to the situation. After everything that happens, happens; I think he goes back to the Guardians. That leads in to GOTG3. Him not being a part of GOTG3 after the way Endgame finishes would be a let down lol

 

[Deuce66]

If it's a good one, it should crack $1B W/Wide. Growth from Thor $449M to DW $645M was 43.6% and from DW to Ragnarok $854M, 32%. 

[Legion Again]

19 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

If it's a good one, it should crack $1B W/Wide. Growth from Thor $449M to DW $645M was 43.6% and from DW to Ragnarok $854M, 32%. 

Thor1->2 30 months, 1.21% growth per month, Avengers 1 in between

2->3 48 months, 0.58% growth per month, Avengers 2 in between 

Thor 3->4 48 months again, Avengers 3 and 4 in between 

 

With 1.21% monthly — 1.521B

1% — 1.376B 

.8% — 1.251B

.58% — 1.127B 

.4% — 1.034B
 
Middle 3 a decent high/middle/low for me.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Not sure Gunn would be too keen on Thor having a major role in GOTG Vol 3 since it's supposedly wrapping up the stories of the main members of that group. I do expect the GOTG to be in Love and Thunder as a cameo. 

BO wise I think Civil War numbers is a good expectation.

[Legion Again]

On 12/28/2019 at 4:10 PM, Arendelle Legion said:

180

450

850   
 

At last, my work is done.

Ehhh, heck. I’m cooped up in a cabin over the holidays with copious free time. Gonna make a 2nd pass on these with more detailed thoughts, might change numbers vs my first passes, might not.    
 

History of Thor Franchise (all ranks contemporaneous peak):  

OW 

Thor 1 66M, 55th

Thor 2 86M, 38th, +0.88% monthly

Thor 3 123M, 28th, +0.75% monthly

 

DOM

Thor 1  181M, 142nd

Thor 2 206M, 135th, +0.43% monthly

Thor 3 315M, 62nd, +0.89% monthly

 

OS

Thor 1 268M, ???

Thor 2 438M, 61st, +1.65% monthly

Thor 3 539M, 60th? +0.43% monthly

 

WW 

Thor 1 449M, 116th

Thor 2 645M, 73rd, +1.21% monthly

Thor 3 854M, 60th, +0.59% monthly 
 

The Thor franchise is actually rather interesting in that between the 1st and 2nd movie, DOM was essentially stagnant while OS showed big growth, but from the 2nd to 3rd the OS performance is essentially stagnant relative to the time period while DOM makes great gains. The overall result is a third sequence with an almost uncanny level of DOM/OS rank balance. As an absolute basement scenario, L&T should be able to match Ragnarok’s 28/62/60/60 performance profile. 
 

At present, those correspond to 141M OW, 335 DOM, 607 OS, 904 WW, but we’re only about halfway between 3 and 4. By the time it comes out that’ll probably be more like 150/350/640/950 or so.   
 

However, I think the conditions are right for this to do much better than level with Ragnarok. It reminds me of the situation that IM3 and CA 3 were in, which both showed significant improvement from their predecessors on all 4 fronts:

IM2 5/29/???/50 -> IM3 2/13/5/5

CA2 30/73/57/61 -> CA3 5/19/16/12

 

TWS was actually quite close to Ragnarok, but without the Avengers 2.5 nature, Love & Thunder won’t improve as much as Civil War did. 180/450/850/1.3 would translate to ranks of about 11/21/20/18 or so, seems reasonable enough. Monthly growth of .8%/.75%/.95%/.88% 

 

No change.

 

Edited December 30, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[raulbalarezo]

 

Edited January 6, 2020 by raulbalarezo

[JGAR4LIFE]

[Hermia]

Well this will be huge for fandoms 

[fabiopazzo2]

Batman in The MCU? Yes yes 😍

[infamous5445]

Thor 4 > TDK box office confirmed.

[Cap]

I love how deeply committed Taika is to Chaotic Good. Love it. 

[Valonqar]

Bale would certianly raise the interest and steal scenes. 

Edited January 6, 2020 by Valonqar

[excel1]

🤬