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[CoolioD1]

29 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Strange might be another Ant-Man and the Wasp. I think a 4 and a half year gap may have hurt its potential.

 

I am more surprised they're not releasing BP2 in 2021 but perhaps Coogler is not available due to Space Jam 2. 

 

i thought Coogler was gonna try and get Wrong Answer made in between the Black Panthers. that seemed to be on the back burner recently in lieu of BP2 but since that's not coming out for another three years at least maybe he makes it next year idk.

Edited July 21, 2019 by CoolioD1

[UserHN]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Did TS4 get the double feature boost from TLK I expected for Aladdin? Amazing hold. Totally locked to beat TS3 now and maybe by a decent margin too.

Eh, even if TS4 just gross $1.001B, I'll be really happy about it. It's important to just cross that big B, especially after the meltdowns here when it "only" opened to 121M Dom. And especially after you predicted this to have short legs 😎

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

What about the market where Endgame dethroned Avatar for #1 Hollywood movie, and now Aladdin is challenging to dethrone Endgame

which? SK?

[Krissykins]

37 minutes ago, TMP said:

enough to buy another studio! A24, a Walt Disney Company?

That would be a clash of interests, A24 only produce original stories 🌚

14 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

I just don't know what the hook is for a Widow movie. What makes her as a character stand out amongst the rest of the MCU? She's a badass normal with stun batons. Compared to the rest of the MCU solos, it seems... bland? I assume they're going for a Russian spy flashback sort of thing but that doesn't necessarily lend itself to big spectacle. 

She’s an OG avenger! She was the only lead female character they had for a while. 

[Legion Again]

Just now, a2k said:

which? SK?

Yup

[Mekanos]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

She’s an OG avenger!  

I mean... yeah, but there's a reason Hawkeye is getting a miniseries and not a movie lol.

 

I'm not saying it'll bomb or anything, 700 WW is the floor, I just don't know what the draw is for the GA outside of "the original female Avenger." Captain Marvel had the IW teaser, being the first female-led MCU movie, the 90s period piece, Nick Fury, etc. It had a lot going for it. Maybe the first trailer will make it obvious but I remain skeptical of a big breakout hit.

Edited July 21, 2019 by Mekanos

[CoolioD1]

3 hours ago, La Binoche said:

A bright spot this weekend is Awkwafina. I hope they start taking roles away from Emma Stone and Jennifer Lawrence (the two worst BA winners this decade and the worst since Gwyneth Paltrow...another basic overhyped white girl...see the pattern?) and giving them to Awkwafina. 

i'm giving her a chance because she's apparently great in this movie and i think it looks really good (out in Oct here), but i didn't think she was good at all in ocean's 8 or crazy rich asians. the exaggerated blaccent she does in both is so awkward (and i know that's not how she talks, she doesn't talk like that in interviews). hopefully she does a lot more roles without... that in the future then i feel like i could judge her properly. 

[MovieMan89]

Natasha has far better characterization at this point than Captain Marvel, that's for sure. Now granted, this will be a prequel so we'll see how they handle her character. 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Did TS4 get the double feature boost from TLK I expected for Aladdin? Amazing hold. Totally locked to beat TS3 now and maybe by a decent margin too.

Not like either film needed it to hit the milestones, but toy story 4 did get the majority of them

[UserHN]

I think it's important to note that Shang-Chi is a real wildcard in China. Don't just assume that it will gross big there just because the lead is Chinese. There are reports that some vocal netizens are hounding the casting of Tony Leung as Mandarin because they think the character is super racist and a negative for the Chinese. I've also read that there are some vocal online commenters who took issue with the casting of Simu Liu and Awkwafina because for them, they aren't stunning looking enough. Like WTF is that comment. Lol. We'll see if there's a major effect in BO or it's just a noise from a small group of online commenters.

[excel1]

On 7/19/2019 at 4:21 PM, excel1 said:

wrong, $250m+

 

[fabiopazzo2]

49 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Shang Chi: $450m/1.2b 

DS2: $275m/$825m 

Thor 4: $425m/1.15b

450M for Shang and only 275M for Strange!? 

[Mekanos]

I could see Shang breaking out as it serves a still relatively untapped demographic in Hollywood but 450 seems crazy high. I'm thinking around 350. 

Edited July 21, 2019 by Mekanos

[excel1]

On 7/19/2019 at 4:34 PM, TServo2049 said:

How is The Avengers misleading? An outsized 3D share? Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows  Part 2 came out a year earlier, also in 3D, also in that post-Avatar period when 3D was more prevalent.

Hollywood Reporter says Avengers was $172m with 3D surcharges removed - 54% of Avengers opening weekend tickets were in 3D. HP8's estimated 3D share was considerably lower at just 16%. They're probably very similar in terms of dollars but I give the edge to Potter as July is less weekend heavy compared to May.

 

Open HP8 on the first weekend of May it's weekend probably sees a 10% bump though its weekdays will decline.

[Krissykins]

13 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

I mean... yeah, but there's a reason Hawkeye is getting a miniseries and not a movie lol.

 

I'm not saying it'll bomb or anything, 700 WW is the floor, I just don't know what the draw is for the GA outside of "the original female Avenger." Captain Marvel had the IW teaser, being the first female-led MCU movie, the 90s period piece, Nick Fury, etc. It had a lot going for it. Maybe the first trailer will make it obvious but I remain skeptical of a big breakout hit.

ScarJo is a bigger “star”, the audience have seen BW in like 9 films already. BW had a really big moment in Endgame, which is bigger than all of the other Marvel films. 

[Cap]

24 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

I remain skeptical of a big breakout hit.

I am also skeptical on the Black Widow’s prospects at the box office, but I feel like If Scarlet can keep her mouth shut and people keep their expectations in check, it will do fine. I can not stress how awesomely brutal the fight scene between Nat and Yelena is. I went in full prepared to hate it. I did not. It looks like a full on sleek, spy movie. If they can market that aspect, play up the John Wick / Atomic Blonde / Mission Impossible angle, I could see it crossing over with people who don’t normally like the more comic book gimmick Marvel movies. 

Edited July 21, 2019 by captainwondyful

[Porthos]

50 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

The Lion King howls big opening record for a desperate box office.

 

The Lion King breaks big cash cow for a much needed recovery after a slumpy few months! 

It's interesting that you mention this as I once again looked at the Year-to-Year comparison for 2018 and 2019 again late last night and I discovered something interesting.

 

The gap in 2019 to 2018 is almost solely due to 2018's February kicking February 2019's ass.  January and June were down more than a bit, yes.  But here is the monthly gross side by side:

 

			2018		2019		Diff
January		  $961,471,799	  $812,740,998	-$148,730,801
February	$1,004,137,621	  $624,542,717	-$379,594,904
March		  $895,578,915	  $962,723,019    $67,144,104
April		$1,026,777,837	$1,034,700,622	   $7,922,785
May		$1,040,113,992	$1,077,121,555	  $37,007,563
June		$1,276,300,394	$1,108,886,978	-$167,413,416
July		  $841,712,923	  $915,085,398	  $73,372,475
		$7,046,093,481	$6,535,801,287	-$510,292,194

(all figures taken from BOM via this tool, but I manually did the leg work to break it down month by month via a quick spreadsheet)

 

This is calendar gross, BTW, so holdovers from 2018 ARE included (as they should be for a year-to-year comparison).

 

Jan and June were down quite a bit.  Not surprising in the case of June given the bombage of many movies.  And January is January (2018 had TLJ as a holdover while 2019 had Aquaman).

 

But it's February which is the main culprit here.  Black Panther just demolishes anything 2019 had to offer and Captain Marvel, as good as it was, wasn't enough to boost March and April all that much.  Even May wasn't that better than its counterpart, but it is at least a little better.

 

However, and this is something I noted the least time I talked about this in FFH's opening weekend, I think this is when 2019 is gonna be interesting.  July has already clawed back 73m alone, and the month isn't close to over yet.  There's not much else on 2018's slate in the mega range, though there are a LOT of mid-range hits coming down the pike (MI:6, Grinch, ASiB, BR, etc).  That's where 2018 might be able to keep pace.

 

Be interesting to see if/when 2019 can in fact catch up with 2018.

Edited July 21, 2019 by Porthos

[Porthos]

37 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Did TS4 get the double feature boost from TLK I expected for Aladdin? Amazing hold. Totally locked to beat TS3 now and maybe by a decent margin too.

TS4 had double features with TLK at the local drive-in, for what it's worth.  Being the newer film probably helped here.

[cookie]

10 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Hollywood Reporter says Avengers was $172m with 3D surcharges removed - 54% of Avengers opening weekend tickets were in 3D. HP8's estimated 3D share was considerably lower at just 16%.

Mojo says it was 43%

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3211&p=.htm

Quote

Deathly Hallows Part 2 marked Harry Potter's first foray into 3D, and it made a splash with the broadest 3D launch ever (3,100-plus locations, including 274 in IMAX). However, the majority of moviegoers still opted to see the movie in the standard ("2D") format. 3D accounted for 43 percent of the gross, which was a lower share than Transformers: Dark of the Moon's 60 percent at the same point but in the ballpark of most of this summer's other big movies. 

 

[excel1]

1 minute ago, cookie said:

Mojo says it was 43%

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3211&p=.htm

 

That's interesting - not sure what Deadline meant by 16%