THE LION KING WEEKEND THREAD l WITH DIGITAL FUR TECHNOLOGY | 191.8M OW (July OW Record, 8th biggest OW of all time) | Endgame beats Avatar. Disney keeps on winning! | SALE: One Month of Gold 50% Off!

[JB33]

3 hours ago, La Binoche said:

A bright spot this weekend is Awkwafina. I hope they start taking roles away from Emma Stone and Jennifer Lawrence (the two worst BA winners this decade and the worst since Gwyneth Paltrow...another basic overhyped white girl...see the pattern?) and giving them to Awkwafina. 

Oh for fuck's sake! Get out of here with that stuff.

 

Cry me a river while you're at it.

[excel1]

JLaw is blah and her 15 minutes have clearly ended but Emma Stone is a very gifted actress cmon now 

[Legion Again]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Jan and June were down quite a bit.  Not surprising in the case of June given the bombage of many movies.  And January is January (2018 had TLJ as a holdover while 2019 had Aquaman).

 

Yep, 

1	Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle	Sony	$171,792,998	3,849	$404,515,480	42.5%	12/20/17
2	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$94,591,881	4,232	$620,181,382	15.3%	12/15/17
3	The Greatest Showman	Fox	$79,901,641	3,342	$174,340,174	45.8%	12/20/17

 

Vs

 

1	Aquaman	WB	$119,682,416	4,184	$335,061,807	35.7%	12/21/18
2	Glass	Uni.	$79,120,100	3,844	$111,035,005	71.3%	1/18/19
3	The Upside	STX	$66,740,128	3,377	$108,252,517	61.7%	1/11/19

 

The 2018 vs 2019 gap will be basically just down to the size of BP’s overperformance in a couple weeks.

[Jonwo]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

It's interesting that you mention this as I once again looked at the Year-to-Year comparison for 2018 and 2019 again late last night and I discovered something interesting.

 

The gap in 2019 to 2018 is almost solely due to 2018's February kicking February 2019's ass.  January and June were down more than a bit, yes.  But here is the monthly gross side by side:

 

			2018		2019		Diff
January		  $961,471,799	  $812,740,998	-$148,730,801
February	$1,004,137,621	  $624,542,717	-$379,594,904
March		  $895,578,915	  $962,723,019    $67,144,104
April		$1,026,777,837	$1,034,700,622	   $7,922,785
May		$1,040,113,992	$1,077,121,555	  $37,007,563
June		$1,276,300,394	$1,108,886,978	-$167,413,416
July		  $841,712,923	  $915,085,39	  $73,372,475
		$7,046,093,481	$6,535,801,287	-$510,292,194

(all figures taken from BOM via this tool, but I manually did the leg work to break it down month by month via a quick spreadsheet)

 

This is calendar gross, BTW, so holdovers from 2018 ARE included (as they should be for a year-to-year comparison).

 

Jan and June were down quite a bit.  Not surprising in the case of June given the bombage of many movies.  And January is January (2018 had TLJ as a holdover while 2019 had Aquaman).

 

But it's February which is the main culprit here.  Black Panther just demolishes anything 2019 had to offer and Captain Marvel, as good as it was, wasn't enough to boost March and April all that much.  Even May wasn't that better than its counterpart, but it is at least a little better.

 

However, and this is something I noted the least time I talked about this in FFH's opening weekend, I think this is when 2019 is gonna be interesting.  July has already clawed back 73m alone, and the month isn't close to over yet.  There's not much else on 2018's slate in the mega range, though there are a LOT of mid-range hits coming down the pike (MI:6, Grinch, ASiB, BR, etc).  That's where 2018 might be able to keep pace.

 

Be interesting to see if/when 2019 can in fact catch up with 2018.

Black Panther in February meant that the year after was always going to look paltry, June 2018 also had two $100m+ OW compared to June 2019's one $100m grosser. 

 

August is going to be tough due to no breakout like The Meg and CRA and the run of Mission Impossible but September probably will make up for it with It 2. 

[cookie]

7 minutes ago, excel1 said:

That's interesting - not sure what Deadline meant by 16%

16% would've been a crazy low share in 2011. The average around that time was 40-50% unless it was touted like Trans3mers.

Edited July 21, 2019 by cookie

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

August is going to be tough due to no breakout like The Meg and CRA and the run of Mission Impossible but September probably will make up for it with It 2. 

And The Goldfinch @Alli

[Krissykins]

Disney are insisting Lion King plays on the biggest screens for 3 weeks, according to Grace Randolph (Lol).

 

Is that true?

 

The last time they did that was Last Jedi apparently. 

[Mekanos]

8 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Disney are insisting Lion King plays on the biggest screens for 3 weeks, according to Grace Randolph (Lol).

 

Is that true?

 

The last time they did that was Last Jedi apparently. 

Hobbs/Shaw is getting IMAX so I doubt it.

[Jiffy]

1 hour ago, Royce said:

The highest grossing movie of all time has characters playing Fortnite and doing the dab

 

Long live the cinema

It's also supplanted Avatar as the worst #1 all-time in history... not the best trend. 

 

$200m was the magic mark for TLK, I think it's fair to feel underwhelmed even though the numbers are still objectively large. 

 

We'll see where it goes from here.

[Mekanos]

2 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

It's also supplanted Avatar as the worst #1 all-time in history... not the best trend. 

Ah, big fan of Birth Of A Nation, I see.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Mekanos said:

Hobbs/Shaw is getting IMAX so I doubt it.

It's interesting you mention that as at least a couple of theaters are giving the opening night post-7pm IMAX slots to TLK on Aug 1st.  The schedule is very up in the air locally.

 

One of the Regals is giving its RPX screen to H&S that night though.  And a local-ish chain has set aside its "Giant Screens" for H&S.  Though, interestingly enough they aren't adding a PLF surcharge for it (they don't always put an surcharge on all of films they show on their "Giant Screen").

 

The actual OW of the 2nd to the 4th is even more up in the air right now.

 

So, H&S is a little interesting, locally at least.  

[LawrenceBrolivier]

18 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Disney are insisting Lion King plays on the biggest screens for 3 weeks, according to Grace Randolph (Lol).

 

Is that true?

Bolded for obvious... Italicized for emphasis...

 

Grace Randolph is terrible. Don't pay any attention to her if you absolutely positively do not have to.... and 99.9999% of the time, you do not. 

[jedijake]

7 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

It's also supplanted Avatar as the worst #1 all-time in history... not the best trend. 

 

$200m was the magic mark for TLK, I think it's fair to feel underwhelmed even though the numbers are still objectively large. 

 

We'll see where it goes from here.

Maybe a little underwhelming if the movie ends up in the $190's for the weekend. But if it stays in the $180's, I'd call that a little more than underwhelming. But far from bad that's for sure.

 

I think the issue with TLK's performance is the preview-to-OD-to-OW ratios. Can't compare this to a typical comic book movie. Or can we? It behaved more like one than a family film. Lower IM's than Jurassic World, Fallen Kingdom, Finding Dory, I2, TS4, Aladdin, and BatB. Overall, it was a bit more top heavy which means front-loaded. That could tell us a bit about where it's headed leg-wise.

[Mekanos]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

It's interesting you mention that as at least a couple of theaters are giving the opening night post-7pm IMAX slots to TLK on Aug 1st.  The schedule is very up in the air locally.

 

One of the Regals is giving its RPX screen to H&S that night though.  And a local-ish chain has set aside its "Giant Screens" for H&S.  Though, interestingly enough they aren't adding a PLF surcharge for it (they don't always put an surcharge on all of films they show on their "Giant Screen").

 

The actual OW of the 2nd to the 4th is even more up in the air right now.

 

So, H&S is a little interesting, locally at least.  

My IMAX is getting it all weekend and after that, which is one of the most popular theaters in the country, so I feel like most are going to get it. 

[VENOM]

10 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Hobbs/Shaw is getting IMAX so I doubt it.

Not in all cinemas, Grace not being able to get IMAX tickets proves it’s true. Why would she make it up?

[Mekanos]

Just now, VENOM said:

Not in all cinemas, Grace not being able to get IMAX tickets proves it’s true. Why would she make it up?

I don't know, why don't you ask her about it? 

[JB33]

2 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Maybe a little underwhelming if the movie ends up in the $190's for the weekend. But if it stays in the $180's, I'd call that a little more than underwhelming. But far from bad that's for sure.

 

I think the issue with TLK's performance is the preview-to-OD-to-OW ratios. Can't compare this to a typical comic book movie. Or can we? It behaved more like one than a family film. Lower IM's than Jurassic World, Fallen Kingdom, Finding Dory, I2, TS4, Aladdin, and BatB. Overall, it was a bit more top heavy which means front-loaded. That could tell us a bit about where it's headed leg-wise.

Nailed it. It's the previews that threw us all off. For a 4 quad family film like this, $23M in previews was sure to translate to a $210M+ OW. As I always say, the landscape is always changing with presales. Even @Porthos says he stays away from predicting internal multis.

[VENOM]

3 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

I don't know, why don't you ask her about it? 

I don’t need to ask her about it she said it in her own video. She couldn’t get tickets for Hobbs and Shaw on the bigger screens on its opening weekend because Disney wants to keep the screens for lion King. Seems pretty straightforward to me.

Edited July 21, 2019 by VENOM

[Jiffy]

14 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

Ah, big fan of Birth Of A Nation, I see.

We'll call it since GWTW since that's when somewhat reliable recording begins. 

[Sindreee]

1 hour ago, Mekanos said:

Until we get a sense of Widow's story and scope I don't feel like it can do a billion. Think it's gonna be more of a lowkey action/spy thriller movie. Not sure the Widow character is a big hit with the GA either. My bet is Winter Soldier numbers but we shall see.

If it does 95/260/715 on a 150-170m budget like Winter Soldier, that should be considered a great success and a hit with the GA imo. A movie doesn’t need to hit 1B to be considered a hit.