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[jedijake]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Nailed it. It's the previews that threw us all off. For a 4 quad family film like this, $23M in previews was sure to translate to a $210M+ OW. As I always say, the landscape is always changing with presales. Even @Porthos says he stays away from predicting internal multis.

Yes it is weird. It is also weird that I (and others) put JW and JWFK in there because they are not family films. But then again, I'd hesitate for FD since that was such an outlier (low previews). Unlike superhero films, there was no reason to catch TLK early to avoid spoilers. So you'd think it would be spread out more.

 

"A" audience score, really good audience RT scores, stayed mostly true to the original...and still when you look at all movies that can be compared, this was an outlier on the low end for IM's. Even a $190 million OW which is GREAT gives TLK an 8.26 X.  The lowest IM from the list I provided was a 9.67 (Fallen Kingdom).  For family films/remakes it was a 9.83 (I2). So 8.26 (IF the actuals come in at that) is low. So it's not about the weekend being disappointing. It's about the distribution through the weekend and what that says about its legs. Maybe it's the opposite and many people (not most though) felt no need at all to see it the first weekend.

[Porthos]

re: TLK's internal multi.

 

I have been harping on the fact that there were a TON of showtimes on preview night and how that might impact the internal multi for weeks now.  I think we can't ignore that when we compare TLK to films that didn't come close to the same number of showtimes on opening night.

[VENOM]

What if people who see the lion king live action that normally would’ve gone to see it again just watch the arguably better version at home instead? Ironically that would mean the lion king ate its own legs. 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

re: TLK's internal multi.

 

I have been harping on the fact that there were a TON of showtimes on preview night and how that might impact the internal multi for weeks now.  I think we can't ignore that when we compare TLK to films that didn't come close to the same number of showtimes on opening night.

Not to mention that even though both are summer, July is a far cry from June

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, Mekanos said:

I could see Shang breaking out as it serves a still relatively untapped demographic in Hollywood but 450 seems crazy high. I'm thinking around 350. 

700 also seemed "crazy high" for Black Panther. Over Wonder Woman seemed like a stretch for Captain Marvel. MCU is hitting gold with representation films. I see no reason Shang Chi would be different if it's well liked. Unless Mulan really steals its thunder as the big landmark blockbuster for that demo. Even so, I can still easily see Shang Chi being the Captain Marvel to Mulan's Wonder Woman. 

Edited July 21, 2019 by MovieMan89

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, The Fast and the Furiosa said:

Not to mention that even though both are summer, July is a far cry from June

+1

 

That DH2's 2011 record was still standing shows how few huge July mega-openers (Fri od) we have had. That could be one reason why it's preview to OW multi was low. We could be in for a Mon-Thu surprise with some stellar numbers.

 

1	The Lion King (2019)	BV	$185,000,000	100.0%	4,725	$39,153	$185,000,000	7/19/19
2	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	WB	$169,189,427	44.4%	4,375	$38,672	$381,011,219	7/15/11
3	The Dark Knight Rises	WB	$160,887,295	35.9%	4,404	$36,532	$448,139,099	7/20/12
4	The Dark Knight	WB	$158,411,483	29.7%	4,366	$36,283	$533,345,358	7/18/08
5	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	BV	$135,634,554	32.0%	4,133	$32,817	$423,315,812	7/7/06

Edited July 21, 2019 by a2k

[cannastop]

5 hours ago, cookie said:

Kinda crazy how much this collapsed not just DOM but internationally as well.

The international collapse of TSLOP2 is even more astounding.

[Sindreee]

29 minutes ago, VENOM said:

Not in all cinemas, Grace not being able to get IMAX tickets proves it’s true. Why would she make it up?

She lives in New York, so that’s obviously not true. Maybe Universal knows she’s a condescending hack and refuse to give her tickets to their critics screenings.

[cannastop]

I have a feeling The Lion King 2019 will have a final DOM gross under The Dark Knight.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, cannastop said:

I have a feeling The Lion King 2019 will have a final DOM gross under The Dark Knight.

Still not ruling out under BatB, and I don't care how many people scoff at that. The OW is only marginally higher and I think reception will be worse. 

[a2k]

Talking about July openers, this is 13 years back. Just one 50%+ drop ... what a run!

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=piratesofthecaribbean2.htm

[a2k]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Still not ruling out under BatB, and I don't care how many people scoff at that. The OW is only marginally higher and I think reception will be worse. 

OW is 10m higher with estimates and most likely 15m with actuals. That's not marginal when calculating legs.

 

Just 2.66x will take TLK over BATB (2.89x) with a 190 ow.

[Valonqar]

TLK is passing BatB. July/August drops will be softer than March/April ones.

Edited July 21, 2019 by Valonqar

[jedijake]

13 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Still not ruling out under BatB, and I don't care how many people scoff at that. The OW is only marginally higher and I think reception will be worse. 

Okay, this is just getting ridiculous. Yes, I and others pointed out that the IM's were quite a bit weaker. Porthos added some info to explain it. But saying that TLK could end up lower than TLK or even BatB is just being ridiculous and laughable. Under $600 million? Maybe. But under $550 million? I can't see that at all.

 

For one, it's not going to be $185 million when the actuals come in. Should be at least $190 million.

Edited July 21, 2019 by jedijake

[Molek]

2 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

TLK is passing BatB. July/August drops will be softer than March/April ones.

Nah the audience really hates it remember!  

 

Even the "All Audience" is currently 5% higher (85%) than BatB (80%) and that's with more backlash.  Verified is steady at 89% with 18k+ ratings.

 

Legs are going to be great.  Not expecting anywhere near Aladdin's 4x but anything over 3x should be good.

[Alex SciChannel]

Anyone have updated TLK Sunday numbers from Comscore? Anyone? Predictions even?

[MovieMan89]

19 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Okay, this is just getting ridiculous. Yes, I and others pointed out that the IM's were quite a bit weaker. Porthos added some info to explain it. But saying that TLK could end up lower than TLK or even BatB is just being ridiculous and laughable. Under $600 million? Maybe. But under $550 million? I can't see that at all.

 

For one, it's not going to be $185 million when the actuals come in. Should be at least $190 million.

550 is the ceiling. TLK is not reaching a 3x, no way no how.

[cookie]

I don't see TLK missing BatB unless it drops like 65% next week.

[TwoMisfits]

For anyone saying a high or low number is locked...$200M was a "lock" Friday morning after the $23M in previews...that lock did not come to pass, and it didn't even actually come close.  So, about the only thing that's likely (and not locked) is that Tuesday will be enormous with the last practically free discount day prebuys from the Atom deal and the opening family day effect.  After that, I'd expect this movie to go practically anywhere...

[a2k]

Just now, cookie said:

I don't see TLK missing BatB unless it drops like 65% next week.

SMH dropped that much after a July ow and did 2.86x.

July weekend drops can get ugly but overall legs can be very good.