THE LION KING WEEKEND THREAD l WITH DIGITAL FUR TECHNOLOGY | 191.8M OW (July OW Record, 8th biggest OW of all time) | Endgame beats Avatar. Disney keeps on winning! | SALE: One Month of Gold 50% Off!

[charlie Jatinder]

Me and @THUNDER BIRD always thought it will beat A:IW, so as far as we are concerned, not that happy yet. Ofcourse Saturday and Sunday can change things.

[TMP]

24 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

From what I am seeing 25mn Thursday is likely. 

 

OD shall easily be 90+.

 

Over 220 weekend shall happen.

[Nero]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

Me and @THUNDER BIRD always thought it will beat A:IW, so as far as we are concerned, not that happy yet. Ofcourse Saturday and Sunday can change things.

No way you have gone bat shit crazy. What IW achieved is nothing short of spectacular but even if TLK had 100%RT it wouldn't have out opened IW. 

[baumer]

Charlie you are awesome for raw numbers and there's no denying that. But you're also kind of sort of terrible at times when it comes to extrapolating or predicting. There's no basis at all whatsoever for this to hit 90 million off a 22 million preview. You're setting everybody up for disappointment when it only hits 75 million for the opening day in total. Tomorrow morning everyone's going to be asking you why it came in under projections LOL

[THUNDER BIRD]

3 minutes ago, Nero said:

Dream a little big doesn't mean you have to turn dis illusioned

I'm just stating a mathematical fact.

 

And what delusion, people can hope for flop, but i can't hope for overperformance?

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

Charlie you are awesome for raw numbers and there's no denying that. But you're also kind of sort of terrible at times when it comes to extrapolating or predicting. There's no basis at all whatsoever for this to hit 90 million off a 22 million preview. You're setting everybody up for disappointment when it only hits 75 million for the opening day in total. Tomorrow morning everyone's going to be asking you why it came in under projections LOL

24 million in presales to only hit 75 means that it was as presale heavy as Captain Marvel. I highly doubt that will be the case. Being summer will boost Friday walkups, then factor in the huge amount of showings and less of the fanbase presales factor. The TS4 comp for instance suggests a 70+ million pure Friday.

[Nero]

Just now, THUNDER BIRD said:

I'm just stating a mathematical fact.

 

And what delusion, people can hope for flop, but i can't hope for overperformance?

You are saying it will hit 260-270M OW? Dude it will be long time for before any movie will break IW OW other than Avengers. Even Star Wars with 20 years of Nostalgia could score only 247 OW. You are way above over performance here

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, baumer said:

Charlie you are awesome for raw numbers and there's no denying that. But you're also kind of sort of terrible at times when it comes to extrapolating or predicting. There's no basis at all whatsoever for this to hit 90 million off a 22 million preview. You're setting everybody up for disappointment when it only hits 75 million for the opening day in total. Tomorrow morning everyone's going to be asking you why it came in under projections LOL

In his defense, he say previews will be closer to 25M than 22M

 

With 24-25M, I can see 90M

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, TMP said:

Weren't you just lapping up the Top Gun 2 trailer? 

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

Charlie you are awesome for raw numbers and there's no denying that. But you're also kind of sort of terrible at times when it comes to extrapolating or predicting. There's no basis at all whatsoever for this to hit 90 million off a 22 million preview. You're setting everybody up for disappointment when it only hits 75 million for the opening day in total. Tomorrow morning everyone's going to be asking you why it came in under projections LOL

You maybe right in the end,but there is no need to be rude bc you disagree

[cheesypoofs]

That's a bigger preview than I was expecting! I'm happy about that

[Taruseth]

36 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

From what I am seeing 25mn Thursday is likely. 

 

OD shall easily be 90+.

 

Over 220 weekend shall happen.

I seriously expected you to post something like Deadline was Deadline they fucked up it's 20m. And all comps in here suggest 20-22m and I am kinda believing them especially as they say weak evening shows and that probably prevented it from going higher.

But 22-23m would pretty great considering it now only needs a IM of 9 to get to a 200m Wend.

Wait, 90+ would be 65+ on the Friday which would be the third biggest Friday ever:

True Fridays:

Endgame: 97.5m

IW: 67.3m

TLK ???????

JW: 63.5m

Avengers: 62.1m

TFA: 62.1m

TLJ: 59.7m

TLK more likely here 22m in Previews with a 57m day would still be 79m OD

AoU: 56.8m

BvS: 53.9m

IM3: 53.3m

I2: 52.8m

F7: 51.6m

BP: 50.7m

Civil War: 50.5m

 

Though to be fair 79m OD would I think mean something like this:

22m

57m (OD*2.59)

60m (+5% it's summer!!!!!)

49m (-18.3%)

That would be 188m Wend so, honestly, still pretty great especially considering that I really started to doubt this movie the closer we got to release.

Obviously hoping for that sweet 200.

 

25m would make this look totally different:

25m

62m (OD*2.48)

65m (+4.8% higher Friday so less room to increase unless you are Endgame)

53m (-18.5%)

205m 

Honestly this would be bloody amazing.

Edited July 19, 2019 by Taruseth

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, baumer said:

Charlie you are awesome for raw numbers and there's no denying that. But you're also kind of sort of terrible at times when it comes to extrapolating or predicting. There's no basis at all whatsoever for this to hit 90 million off a 22 million preview. You're setting everybody up for disappointment when it only hits 75 million for the opening day in total. Tomorrow morning everyone's going to be asking you why it came in under projections LOL

 

 

”There’s no basis at all for this to hit 90 million off of 22 million previews...”

 

Really?

 

TS4 did 2.95 previews for TF. Fallen Kingdom did 2.83x, I2 did 2.89x, and BATB did 2.91x

Edited July 19, 2019 by VenomXXR

[YM!]

 

 

Edited July 19, 2019 by YourMother the Edgelord

[THUNDER BIRD]

2 minutes ago, Nero said:

You are saying it will hit 260-270M OW? Dude it will be long time for before any movie will break IW OW other than Avengers. Even Star Wars with 20 years of Nostalgia could score only 247 OW. You are way above over performance here

OK, there's a difference between "It will follow" & "If it follows".

 

So I'm not saying anything, I'm just wondering about a certain situation. 

 

No predictions, just a thought.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, baumer said:

terrible at times when it comes to extrapolating

Only FFH is one that was off from.early numbers, which I had no comp for Tuesday OD so got it wrong.

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

no basis

24mn Friday pre-sales, double of TS4 ($70mn True Friday) and +70% JWFK ($73mn).

 

4 minutes ago, baumer said:

setting everybody up for disappointment

I understand your concern, in fact after FFH I sorta thought of not doing early numbers but the numbers for next 5 days were on spot so doing for TLK with reinstated faith.

 

Ofcourse they can go wrong; but that's the risk we are gonna take. And for everyone don't @ me tomorrow over this. If every one agrees, we can stop these early numbers for OD.

[john2000]

7 minutes ago, TMP said:

Bc people like what you dont like,that doesnt mean tha you should behave like that to have your own opinion and express it, its the best thing but to be rude to people bc they like what they like is idiocy to say the least

[Alli]

they are late with the numbers. must be still counting...

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Ofcourse they can go wrong; but that's the risk we are gonna take. And for everyone don't @ me tomorrow over this. If every one agrees, we can stop these early numbers for OD.

 

No one wants you to stop and we all appreciate it. Baumer has just lost his touch and can’t read the market or do basic math anymore.

[Permanent Magnet]

11 minutes ago, Nero said:

No way you have gone bat shit crazy. What IW achieved is nothing short of spectacular but even if TLK had 100%RT it wouldn't have out opened IW. 

no i don't think IW is on the menu

i just want it to break JW numbers to become the biggest summer opener ever,