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THE LION KING WEEKEND THREAD l WITH DIGITAL FUR TECHNOLOGY | 191.8M OW (July OW Record, 8th biggest OW of all time) | Endgame beats Avatar. Disney keeps on winning! | SALE: One Month of Gold 50% Off!

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15 minutes ago, baumer said:

@Charlie Jatinder you know there's no disrespect intended on my end at all. I'm just recalling what happened with far from Home. That cause meltdowns in the forums LOL

I know and no hard feelings from my side on that. I truly understand what you mean.

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Posted (edited)

23 is excellent. 220 OW definitely has a solid chance.

Edited by Menor
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Posted (edited)

I project that the Lion King has already made 153.5m more than it deserves

Edited by The Panda
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7 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

 

 

Will be frontloaded. 180m OW.

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Posted (edited)
38 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

 

I think a falsified link leads to a ban....

 

 

37 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Ofcourse they can go wrong; but that's the risk we are gonna take. And for everyone don't @ me tomorrow over this. If every one agrees, we can stop these early numbers for OD.

Please do not stop. Not only bcs its nice to get as early some feel, I think its a good thing also to learn how little things can be reasons for an impact on early projections and that hopefully more ppl learn the difference to the usual dailies.

 

I fully understand Baumer's reaction too, as the brunt of emotions of big budget / long waited for  OWs the mods have to carry.

 

Both points have value (a lot), so maybe we all can in the nicest possible way include some hints like:

'its early projections and as such logically only very rough number, so....' into posts so the less experienced members get reminded repeatedly about

1. there is a difference, and

2. to not get their hopes up or down too early?

 

Also the idea to not add early projection # into the title seems like a good idea too IMHO.

 

Edited by terrestrial
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1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

Will be frontloaded. 180m OW.

Based on what?  It's presales for today are massive and not showing signs of major frontloading. 

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3 minutes ago, The Panda said:

I project that the Lion King has already made 153.5m more than it deserves

source.gif

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Just now, SoSaysI said:

Based on what?  It's presales for today are massive and not showing signs of major frontloading. 

 

Will be frontloaded.  180M OW.

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2 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Will be frontloaded. 180m OW.

It's a 4-quadrant film. I have no interest in seeing this this weekend since I got other stuff to do and home town's movie theater sucks, but even my little cousin wants to see it. This weekend will be huge.

 

 

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Just now, SoSaysI said:

Based on what?  It's presales for today are massive and not showing signs of major frontloading. 

 

Based on the word I'm getting from my Jellicles and the whisperings they heard in the Heaviside Layer.

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Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Will be frontloaded.  180M OW.

So you are saying it will be as presale loaded as Captain Marvel? Bc that's the only way that it can go that low.

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1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

Will be frontloaded. 180m OW.

Going by my historical comparison point, I’m actually projecting an 89m OW

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Amazing preview #, I'll go with $208m.

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3 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Will be frontloaded. 180m OW.

Your setting up for a disappointment here

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1 minute ago, Zatt Hawkguy Murdock said:

It's a 4-quadrant film. I have no interest in seeing this this weekend since I got other stuff to do and home town's movie theater sucks, but even my little cousin wants to see it. This weekend will be huge.

 

 

 

Where I'm at, I'm melting inside so I can only ask my brother if he wants to see it and he told me he doesn't want to venture out in the 38C weather. I know, the sample size is a little small, but it's golden.

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Excellent previews, just massive

 

I’m thinking $ 215M OW. But i wouldn’t be surprised with +230M.

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Just now, MrPink said:

Where I'm at, I'm melting inside so I can only ask my brother if he wants to see it and he told me he doesn't want to venture out in the 38C weather

Why pay good money to see CGI Cats at the cinema when you can watch that trailer another few times for free?

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43 minutes ago, baumer said:

Charlie you are awesome for raw numbers and there's no denying that. But you're also kind of sort of terrible at times when it comes to extrapolating or predicting. There's no basis at all whatsoever for this to hit 90 million off a 22 million preview. You're setting everybody up for disappointment when it only hits 75 million for the opening day in total. Tomorrow morning everyone's going to be asking you why it came in under projections LOL

The first few days are always the most uncertain, but knowing the exact presales for a new opener and the exact PS for previous openers is a huge leg up in predicting true Fridays.   

 

At worst I could see 24*2.5=60M true Fri, 83M OD, but that’s a pretty presale heavy scenario for a movie like this.

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3 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

I think a falsified link leads to a ban....

Wait even jokes? I remember doing fake numbers posts and others doing it in the past with no repercussions

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It's going to have to have a smaller TP/OD multi than other comparable movies to miss $85 million OD. It will have to have a much smaller TP/OW multi to miss $200 million. Less than $200 million would indicate major frontloading on previews.

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