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Posted (edited)

Rank the July 100m OW openers

 

1. The Dark Knight

2. Deathly Hallows Part 2

3. Dead Man’s Chest

4. The Dark Knight Rises

5. Spider-Man: Homecoming

6. The Secret Life of Pets

7. Minions

 

EDIT: Had to remove The Lion King because projections are under 100m OW, sorry guys 

Edited by The Panda

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Just now, Menor said:

I can't see 250-260 million. This should be more presale heavy than something like TS4.

Why? I think a lot of family walkups should be taken into account. IIRC that's exactly what happened with Jurassic World, too... despite that movie not really being all that family oriented.... 

 

But I think this weekend is going to see a lot of people who didn't pre-buy their tickets going to the theater because it's Lion King.... but REAL.... and it's going to be a big family deal. Walkups should be plentiful.

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Just now, The Panda said:

Rank the July 100m OW openers

 

1. The Dark Knight

2. Deathly Hallows Part 2

3. Dead Man’s Chest

4. The Dark Knight Rises

5. Spider-Man: Homecoming

6. The Secret Life of Pets

7. Minions

8. The Lion King (2019)

 

Who says Lion King will hit 100M OW :thinking:

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1 hour ago, efialtes76 said:

 

Cool video, but I'm very familiar with both. As a kid growing up in the 70s, they showed Kimba every morning on a local channel and me and my brothers watched every episode they aired, surely multiple times. It was a huge hit in our household, I am very familiar with it. 

 

Likewise, I have seen the Lion King many times in may formats over the years, so am very familiar with it as well. I stand by the opinion i stated in the last post.

 

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Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Who says Lion King will hit 100M OW :thinking:

Ooh right, it’s also a tech demo not a movie, I guess I’ll edit it out.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Permanent Magnet said:

temper your expectations people, or you will get disappointed

 

TLK getting JW internal multi is unlikely

 

anything above 200M is excellent, and it will pass that mark easily now

 

210-220M is the good range


I won't be disappointed if Lion King "only" makes 208-210mil, LOL. It won't make me feel bad... I don't have any stake in this really...

I'm unsure why the JW multi is off the table? It's more family friendly, it's been marketed better, it's in almost 600 more theaters. It seems a decent arc to track. And if it follows JW's arc, it's gonna be right around $260... even if it falls short of that arc, $230-250 seems very possible...

Edited by LawrenceBrolivier

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1 minute ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:


I won't be disappointed if Lion King "only" makes 208-210mil, LOL. It won't make me feel bad... I don't have any stake in this really...

I'm just unsure why the JW multi is off the table? It's more family friendly, it's been marketed better, it's in almost 600 more theaters. It seems a decent arc to track. And if it follows JW's arc, it's gonna be right around $260... even if it falls short of that arc, $230-250 seems very possible...

 

JW had the "Don't Tread On Me" demographic advantage.

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2 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:


I won't be disappointed if Lion King "only" makes 208-210mil, LOL. It won't make me feel bad... I don't have any stake in this really...

I'm unsure why the JW multi is off the table? It's more family friendly, it's been marketed better, it's in almost 600 more theaters. It seems a decent arc to track. And if it follows JW's arc, it's gonna be right around $260... even if it falls short of that arc, $230-250 seems very possible...

JW relied less on presales unlike TLK.

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6 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Rank the July 100m OW openers

 

1. The Dark Knight

2. Deathly Hallows Part 2

3. Dead Man’s Chest

4. The Dark Knight Rises

5. Spider-Man: Homecoming

6. The Secret Life of Pets

7. Minions

 

EDIT: Had to remove The Lion King because projections are under 100m OW, sorry guys 

giphy.gif

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Posted (edited)

Haven't seen Minions or SLOP

1. SMH (Came out of this movie exhilarated. A blast and Tom Holland's Spidey is my favorite character in the MCU. The story also connected with me in a way few movies do.)

2. TDK (Love this movie but not quite as much as everyone else. Still an excellent movie with some great themes but I've always found Nolan's movies a bit emotionally flat with their protagonists.)

3. DMC (Excellent set pieces and worldbuilding, just a great summer blockbuster and nonstop entertainment)

4. TDKR (A little wonky at times with the plot but it gets the job done and is quite satisfying. A good conclusion to the trilogy)

5. TLK (really enjoyed it, well done remake, a couple of rough patches but it recaptures the original's emotional power and is a very beautiful movie)

6. DH2 (some parts are fantastic while other decisions are a bit questionable, overall a mostly enjoyable movie and hits the emotional beats but felt crammed/rushed. Haven't watched it in a while though)

 

@LawrenceBrolivier mostly because JW didn't have such hype to get big previews or presales like TLK did. I don't think it's a good comp as Lion King has been building a massive amount of hype and presales while JW relied on walkups and nostalgia for the premise.

Edited by Menor
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$23m worth of people have already seen that Cats trailer 

 

:Gaga:

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2 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:


I won't be disappointed if Lion King "only" makes 208-210mil, LOL. It won't make me feel bad... I don't have any stake in this really...

I'm unsure why the JW multi is off the table? It's more family friendly, it's been marketed better, it's in almost 600 more theaters. It seems a decent arc to track. And if it follows JW's arc, it's gonna be right around $260... even if it falls short of that arc, $230-250 seems very possible...

There's a four year difference between the two. In that time, previews have become more popular, and IMs have been getting smaller.

 

As a comparison, Dumbo did about 300K more than Cinderella on its previews with a similar release date, and its IM was close to half of what Cinderella did.

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Posted (edited)

1. Deathly Hallows 2

2. Dark Knight

3. Dark Knight Rises

4. Dead Man's Chest

large gap

5. Homecoming

6. Secret Life of Pets

large gap

7. Minions

Edited by That One Guy
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4 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:


I won't be disappointed if Lion King "only" makes 208-210mil, LOL. It won't make me feel bad... I don't have any stake in this really...

I'm just unsure why the JW multi is off the table? It's more family friendly, it's been marketed better, it's in almost 600 more theaters. It seems a decent arc to track. And if it follows JW's arc, it's gonna be right around $260... even if it falls short of that arc, $230-250 seems very possible...

it is more presales heavy, yes it is a family movie but it had larger previews than JW and other family movies like TS4

 

TS4 is another family friendly summer movie and didn't get JW multi , it is the best comp and i can not see it getting its internal multi too

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1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

1. Deathly Hallows 2

2. Dark Knight

3. Dead Man's Chest

4. Dark Knight Rises

large gap

5. Homecoming

6. Secret Life of Pets

large gap

7. Minions

Pretty much this.

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Incredibles 2 multi would net just over $225m FWIW

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1. The Dark Knight

2. The Dark Knight Rises

3. Dead Man’s Chest

 

All the rest tie for last ;)

 

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8 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

JW had the "Don't Tread On Me" demographic advantage.

Is that demographic more... or less... lucrative than the Beyhive

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