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Eric Atreides

THE LION KING WEEKEND THREAD l WITH DIGITAL FUR TECHNOLOGY | 191.8M OW (July OW Record, 8th biggest OW of all time) | Endgame beats Avatar. Disney keeps on winning! | SALE: One Month of Gold 50% Off!

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37 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Also even with $ 80M, is doing $ 190M-200M which locks +500M,

Indeed. A just over or just under 200m OW would be terrific.  Hence my sarcastic use of the “Not An Event” meme.

 

Hell, 185 would be fantastic as well.  A sure fire smash hit in fact.  To treat it any other way is just silly.

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8 minutes ago, cannastop said:

 

Also Disney's artists did go on those vaunted research trips to study African animals, And animals were brought into the studio. Not sure who you're saying "didn't have that much experience with animation" because that's not any of Disney's artists.

 

 

but some of the animation looks similar to Kimba that it em likely it was used in reference. I can believe they came up with the idea by themselves but they obviously used Tezuka's work as reference for some scenes. 

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Just now, Porthos said:

Indeed. A just over or just under 200m OW would be terrific.  Hence my sarcastic use of the “Not An Event” meme.

 

 Hell, 185 would be fantastic as well.  A sure fire smash hit in fact.  To treat it any other way is just silly.

Problem is when expectations get over-inflated. If we thought 70m OD, people would've screamed underperformance, but 80 would suddenly look great. But with 90 OD, 80 looks just "ok" in comparison.

 

Anyway, BOP tracking might come true with $201,000,000 months ago, interestingly enough. I think Disney will use their power to get it over the line

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1 hour ago, Rthhome said:

Couple hours ago I  was thinking TLK 78-82, went with 80m which I think seems to be where others are thinking atm., see how it goes into evening Pre-sales is always a big factor

So right around $200m... 

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I’m satisfied with anything above $ 500M which is kinda obviously doing.

 

But i agree, i don’t think it will reach $ 600M with $ 190-200M OW.

 

If this becomes another JW and the numbers just keep growing and ended up with $ 215-220M OW, than it’s happening, but $ 525-550M pleases me enough.

 

Now i just need TROS surpassing TLJ and i’m happy.

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4 minutes ago, ban1o said:

but some of the animation looks similar to Kimba that it em likely it was used in reference. I can believe they came up with the idea by themselves but they obviously used Tezuka's work as reference for some scenes. 

tl.jpg

 

I mean a lot of this can be explained away by pointing out that these are all just characters based on the same animals, or that certain one-to-one comparisons don't really play out in the same way.

 

That shot of the cliff with the lion on top does bother me though. Wish I knew the context.

 

Tezuka's bird does remind me of this guy though:

 

latest?cb=20160909054651

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23+57+60+50 = 190

That's only up 5% for Saturday, could go as high as 10% but I would bet against a bigger jump.

 

Incredbles went up 11.6% Saturday, down 10.8% Sunday
Jurassic World up 9.8% Saturday, down 17.9% Sunday


Both Dark knight movies, Deathly Hallows 2, Dead Man's Chest and Minions all stayed flat or dropped from True Friday to Saturday.  Homecoming increased 5%.


Both Dark knight movies dropped 10% on Sunday while Minions, Secret Life of Pets, Homecoming and PotC Dead Man's Chest all dropped 20% on Sunday so ~15% seems reasonable.

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8 minutes ago, Jiffy said:

Aladdin and TLK really underscore what a massive over-performer BATB ended up being. 

It was basically an Avengers-level event for the young girl audience. They rarely get something like that. 

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$200 million from a $23 million preview is an 8.69 multiplier. $185 million yields an 8X. Those are lower than:

BatB (10.72)

TS4 (10.07)

JW (11.29)

FK (9.67)

FD (14.67)

Alad (13.07)

WW (9.36)

Incredibles 2 (9.84)

 

It's above heavily front-loaded comic movies like Captain Marvel, Civil War, the Avengers movies, and DC movies. 

 

Is that what we are going with? TLK being front-loaded like comic book films? I'd think that it would fall somewhere in the range of the movies I listed above (throwing out Finding Dory's data because of being an outlier).

 

A preview/OW multiplier of less than 9X would seem surprising.

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1 minute ago, jedijake said:

$200 million from a $23 million preview is an 8.69 multiplier. $185 million yields an 8X. Those are lower than:

BatB (10.72)

TS4 (10.07)

JW (11.29)

FK (9.67)

FD (14.67)

Alad (13.07)

WW (9.36)

Incredibles 2 (9.84)

 

It's above heavily front-loaded comic movies like Captain Marvel, Civil War, the Avengers movies, and DC movies. 

 

Is that what we are going with? TLK being front-loaded like comic book films? I'd think that it would fall somewhere in the range of the movies I listed above (throwing out Finding Dory's data because of being an outlier).

 

A preview/OW multiplier of less than 9X would seem surprising.

Empty calendar leading into the movie, enormous presale deal for the movie, enormous enormous enormous fan base of the original film, known rush factor by generic Disney fan base, enormous clear out by movie theaters for opening night (and all weekend), and possibly not spectacular family WOM...

 

It may be unprecedented for its type of movie, but it actually wouldn't be surprising...

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3 minutes ago, jedijake said:

$200 million from a $23 million preview is an 8.69 multiplier. $185 million yields an 8X. Those are lower than:

BatB (10.72)

TS4 (10.07)

JW (11.29)

FK (9.67)

FD (14.67)

Alad (13.07)

WW (9.36)

Incredibles 2 (9.84)

 

It's above heavily front-loaded comic movies like Captain Marvel, Civil War, the Avengers movies, and DC movies. 

 

Is that what we are going with? TLK being front-loaded like comic book films? I'd think that it would fall somewhere in the range of the movies I listed above (throwing out Finding Dory's data because of being an outlier).

 

A preview/OW multiplier of less than 9X would seem surprising.

Part of the reason is that it's mid-july.  Homecoming had a 7.6, TDK all the way back in 2008 had a 8.56, TDKR had a 5.26, HP:DH2 3.89

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