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[Mekanos]

3 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Might not clear $200M...

The only movies to hit 80 on Friday and not get to 200 are DH2, BVS, and AOU. 

Edited July 20, 2019 by Mekanos

[XXR vs XXR]

On 7/18/2019 at 9:06 PM, VenomXXR said:

If I had to make a prediction right now, I'd put my money on true Friday being between $57m - $62m. 

 

14 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

81 (23+58)

 

Tracking does the job again.

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

The only movies to hit 80 on Friday and not get to 200 are DH2, BVS, and AOU. 

Yes and? Previews started crazy early for The Lion King.

 

#CRUMBLING

[Legion Again]

29 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

81

 

Sorry

It can be tough to extrapolate huge numbers at 9AM. Just 2.4 PSm is very unusual for the genre. People should try it themself and I think they’d understand a lot better.    

 

With Asgardians in agreement at 11PM East Coast, day seems fairly clear. Will be about 50/50 whether this thing can crack 200 I think.

Edited July 20, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Minnale101]

Looking to see cinema score if it’s A- or A

[Ledmonkey96]

1 minute ago, cannastop said:

Yes and? Previews started crazy early for The Lion King.

 

#CRUMBLING

Previews started at 6 PM here? Only about an hour earlier than normal and still later than the 4PM WB has been doing.

[JB33]

4 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

 

Tracking does the job again.

Well done!

[Mekanos]

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Yes and? Previews started crazy early for The Lion King.

 

#CRUMBLING

You could be a little less transparent in cheering for its underperformance lol.

 

6 PM is not "crazy early."

Edited July 20, 2019 by Mekanos

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

The only movies to hit 80 on Friday and not get to 200 are DH2, BVS, and AOU. 

I’ll just repeat what I mentioned on reddit about that little factoid:  

 

I’d like to offer two words of warning to that. One, Saturday (and then Sunday) numbers are related to true Friday more than the artificial Thursday+Friday “opening day.” Two, summer internal multipliers are markedly lower since Friday’s can be much bigger. 

 

For 200 we’ll need a 177M true FSS. The true F:True FSS multipliers of the big summer break OWs are:
JW 190.3/63.45=3.0x
I2 164.2/52.76=3.11x
DH2 125.7/47.57=2.64x
TDKR 130.9/45.15=2.90x
TDK 139.9/48.66=2.88x
JW:FK 132.7/43.27=3.07x 

 

DH2 was infamously frontloaded, I’m sure TLk will beat that handily. I2’s internal multiplier is inflated by Father’s Day. If you give TLK the next best, JWFK’s x3.07, then it would need a 57.65 true Friday to hit 200. 

If Rth’s middle of the range hits dead on, 200 would be more like a 50/50 proposition.

Edited July 20, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[XXR vs XXR]

Also, for the harbingers of demise on this thread; $200m OW is still very much on the table. Verified audience rating is holding strong at 4.5/5 on RT with nearly 6k votes. It's a crowd pleaser and is going to do just fine, whether that's $550m or $650m. 

Edited July 20, 2019 by VenomXXR

[charlie Jatinder]

nvm

Edited July 20, 2019 by Charlie Jatinder

[BoilingHotCoffee]

Using "$80M Friday" stated earlier by Odin, I'm projecting maybe:

 

Thu: $23M

Fri: $57M

Sat: $68.3M

Sun: $53M

 

Weekend: $201.3M

[Molek]

It's performing literally in the middle of early tracking (from months ago) currently, neither underperforming or overperforming lol. So no one can brag or throw shade here 

 

Edit: k nevermind 

Edited July 20, 2019 by Molek

[JB33]

Any chance of $210M OW based on $81M OD?

[THUNDER BIRD]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

nvm

Now what?

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Any chance of $210M OW based on $81M OD?

 

Maybe a 15% chance? Would need $70m tomorrow. 

[Rthmessiah]

4 hours ago, Rthhome said:

Couple hours ago I  was thinking TLK 78-82, went with 80m which I think seems to be where others are thinking atm., see how it goes into evening Pre-sales is always a big factor

76.5-78.5

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, Rthhome said:

76.5-78.5

 

Now the multiplier is just getting bad....

[That One Girl]

.

Edited March 2, 2022 by That One Guy

[Mekanos]