THE LION KING WEEKEND THREAD l WITH DIGITAL FUR TECHNOLOGY | 191.8M OW (July OW Record, 8th biggest OW of all time) | Endgame beats Avatar. Disney keeps on winning! | SALE: One Month of Gold 50% Off!

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

So much over-reacting in this thread.

 

IT MIGHT NOT HIT 200m OW!!!!!

 

 

 

As someone who pegged this hitting in the low to mid 500s DOM all along, I certainly don't see this as a bad opening.  

 

I mean, really folks.  I know some of you were really looking forward to a mega huge opener. And so I get felling a little disappointed in that. But this is still plenty big and a sign of a very successful movie.

 

You're being very logical and making great points as usual.

However....

THIS IS NOW A TRAIN WRECK OF EPIC PROPORTIONS! I'M NOT EXAGGERATING AT ALL WHEN I SAY THIS IS THE WORST DAY OF MY LIFE, NAY, THE WORST DAY IN HUMAN HISTORY!!!

[RealLyre]

BvS will keep its OD record I see 

[cannastop]

24 minutes ago, Rthhome said:

76.5-78.5

lol

[OncomingStorm93]

5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Not a HP fan? I was skeptical and then became a huge HP Stan. Read all the books, listened to all of the audio books (incredible) and watched/own all of the blur rays

 

In the top 100 I have not seen

 

It (remake only, saw original)

Minions

Fifty Shades

Passion of the Christ

 

Can someone tell me when the word "stan" became a thing? I understand what it means, but I never heard it until a month ago and now it's all over the god damn internet.

[Mekanos]

5 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Not a HP fan? I was skeptical and then became a huge HP Stan. Read all the books, listened to all of the audio books (incredible) and watched/own all of the blur ays

Read the books as a kid, never really got into them besides the fact that it was the new hotness as a time. Never watched past movie 5. 

[Yandereprime101189]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So much over-reacting in this thread.

 

IT MIGHT NOT HIT 200m OW!!!!!

 

 

 

As someone who pegged this hitting in the low to mid 500s DOM all along, I certainly don't see this as a bad opening.  

 

I mean, really folks.  I know some of you were really looking forward to a mega huge opener. And so I get felling a little disappointed in that. But this is still plenty big and a sign of a very successful movie.

 

Hell, 186-195 million is still mega big. 

[narniadis]

And the fallout continues although "surpisingly" enough the actual data isnt far removed from the sales thread..... I miss being able to enjoy large weekends. 

 

Its a great number for Friday regardless if it tops 80m or not. 

[RealLyre]

btw TLK is not underperforming at all. industry tracking had it opening at 150M-180M so anything above that range is over-performing relative to tracking.

 

still want to see OS results but I'm still doubting TLK going much above BatB WW with a sub 200M OW.

[Mekanos]

1 minute ago, OncomingStorm93 said:

 

Can someone tell me when the word "stan" became a thing? I understand what it means, but I never heard it until a month ago and now it's all over the god damn internet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stan_(song)

[cdsacken]

38 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Also, for the harbingers of demise on this thread; $200m OW is still very much on the table. Verified audience rating is holding strong at 4.5/5 on RT with nearly 6k votes. It's a crowd pleaser and is going to do just fine, whether that's $550m or $650m. 

197,200,203 whatever it's awesome and your prediction was incredibly good.

 

@Porthos part of that is due to people hate following this thread creaming themselves at the possibility of it doing "only" 199. Weirdest thing ever.

Edited July 20, 2019 by cdsacken

[infamous5445]

Looking back it's kind of funny how people thought TLK would be the biggest movie of the year.

[cannastop]

This is going to be very frontloaded.

[RealLyre]

1 minute ago, infamous5445 said:

Looking back it's kind of funny how people thought TLK would be the biggest movie of the year.

I too remember those 2B predictions 

[cdsacken]

3 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

Looking back it's kind of funny how people thought TLK would be the biggest movie of the year.

Right? They got owned when it goes #2 for 2019

[EarlyDeadlinePredictions]

Whats the expected sat jump in july?

[Mekanos]

Really just goes to show how insanely hard it is to crack 200 even with inflation. Unless you're Marvel or Star Wars you need a stroke of luck... or dinosaurs.

Edited July 20, 2019 by Mekanos

[narniadis]

Excel, youve been around long enough for the rest of us to know you wont leave your pet side issues so discussing and being logical is about as well thought at going toward the Cameronites with Avatar info. 

I write a lot of what I do for the newer sellers and to try my best here to keep the historical data accurate. Presales the night before were always an exception and BOM keeping them separate is the way it has been and always continues to be done. Like it or not, BOM is still the industry's widest access point for legitimate data post 1981 and has been for a long time - there was a reason that IMDB bought them out and it had nothing to do with the forum. 

Comparisons beyond 5ish years are hard enough due to both inflation and now in the last decade the 3D stuff. Its not an excuse or and exclusion but an understanding that films benefit from what they do at the time they are released and there is no guarantee that they would do the same thing in another spot. 

Good grief the 3D issue itself has led to never ending discussions just because of how bad it has gotten as a benefit, and yet the average ticket price hasnt actually gone down since 2012. 

I know why and appreciate your fanboying (as best as I can) but I dont pass skewed data just because it makes something look worse or better - same issue I have with the Avatar crowd (or the anti crowd). 

[That One Girl]

.

Edited March 2, 2022 by That One Guy

[keysersoze123]

kudos to DHD. They generally get range for big openers early on.

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Endgame’s OW spoiled us. After a $357M OW people are starting to think $200M OW is something that should happen once in awhile, even if it’s not very realistic.

I've been thinking of mentioning this.

 

Here is a list of all films that have bowed over 200m on OW:

 

Quote

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Opening*	% of Total	Theaters	Avg.	Total Gross^	Date**
1	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$357,115,007	41.9%	4,662	$76,601	$853,017,193	4/26/2019
2	Avengers: Infinity War	BV	$257,698,183	38.0%	4,474	$57,599	$678,815,482	4/27/2018
3	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	BV	$247,966,675	26.5%	4,134	$59,982	$936,662,225	12/18/2015
4	Star Wars: The Last Jedi	BV	$220,009,584	35.5%	4,232	$51,987	$620,181,382	12/15/2017
5	Jurassic World	Uni.	$208,806,270	32.0%	4,274	$48,855	$652,270,625	6/12/2015
6	Marvel's The Avengers	BV	$207,438,708	33.3%	4,349	$47,698	$623,357,910	5/4/2012
7	Black Panther	BV	$202,003,951	28.9%	4,020	$50,250	$700,059,566	2/16/2018

Exactly ONE of them is neither a CBM or SW film. 

 

ONE!!!!

Even expanding that to adjusted numbers doesn't add to the list.  Closest is HP 7 pt 2, and HP was its own beast.

 

Expanding it to $175m (back to unadjusted), you get Incredibles 2 at 182m, and that was CBM adjacent.

 

Whatever TLK's OW number will be will still be historic for a family film.  Just not quite earth shatteringly historic.

 

tl;dr:  200m OW are still rare and practically unheard of outside of CBMs and SW films.  For a family film to do this level of business is great and we shouldn't let high expectations on the part of some to blind us to that.