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[RealLyre]

8 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

After Skywalker we probably won't see a 200 opener for a very long time.

 

It sure as shit isn't gonna be Batman lol. 

if TLK or Frozen 2 don't open to 200M, we probably won't see a non-CBM/SW open above 200M for the next decade or so. 

[filmlover]

6 minutes ago, The Panda said:

All this talk about, “It’s still doing great!”

 

But I can’t help but think, could it have done better if the kids had liked it? 🤔 

This is what Disney gets for dumping Born in China two years ago, amirite?

[Jiffy]

$1m more than I2's true Friday with Rth's lower end. 

 

Still big numbers, objectively.

[cdsacken]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

Who said it was gonna hit near 200M OW .  76M Friday would be a worse true Friday than Incredibles 2, and it's not gonna have BATB's Saturday increase since it's the summer or Incredibles 2's Sunday decrease because it's not Father's Day.

sure thing.

[Mekanos]

@captainwondyful I know you're probably having fun with Comic-Con but are you still all in on Frozen 2 opening to 200M?

[excel1]

6 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Excel, youve been around long enough for the rest of us to know you wont leave your pet side issues so discussing and being logical is about as well thought at going toward the Cameronites with Avatar info. 

These aren't pet issues though. Trying to compare all hyped movies means weighing all variables fairly. Previews and 3D are variables that differ greatly from film to film and need to be treated as such. The blanket approach of viewing all films through the same inflation lens is beyond silly. 

 

6 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I write a lot of what I do for the newer sellers and to try my best here to keep the historical data accurate. Presales the night before were always an exception and BOM keeping them separate is the way it has been and always continues to be done. Like it or not, BOM is still the industry's widest access point for legitimate data post 1981 and has been for a long time - there was a reason that IMDB bought them out and it had nothing to do with the forum. 

I love mojo and have been following it regularly since the days of Sean Salisbury - but this is what it is. Understanding context and the role/impact of each variable is a huge part of all statistical analysis. Many folks think in simple broad generalization terms which is fine for common discussions but for true quants like myself, alarm bells go off when someone makes a generalization that really doesn't hold with mass application 

6 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Comparisons beyond 5ish years are hard enough due to both inflation and now in the last decade the 3D stuff. Its not an excuse or and exclusion but an understanding that films benefit from what they do at the time they are released and there is no guarantee that they would do the same thing in another spot. 

Of course there is no guarantee, we are simply trying to measure the extent to which a film is viewed over a certain period of time relative to competitors. Avengers 2012 was a monster hit regardless but no, it didn't sell as many tickets as TDK, and TDKR would have almost destroyed its admissions number without the massacre.

 

But maybe more frustrating is how films of near or equal hype to Avengers 2012 have been forgotten in the Marvel buzz. Spiderman 1, 2, 3 Matrix Reloaded, Sith, Transformers 2 are all higher than Avengers 2012 as well if we consider 3D surcharges. 

 

6 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Good grief the 3D issue itself has led to never ending discussions just because of how bad it has gotten as a benefit, and yet the average ticket price hasnt actually gone down since 2012. 

Well yeah, it's an epic variable. It's a shame we can't just get ticket admissions because that would tell the tale, especially if measured against scene and theater counts. 

 

6 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I know why and appreciate your fanboying (as best as I can) but I dont pass skewed data just because it makes something look worse or better - same issue I have with the Avatar crowd (or the anti crowd). 

This really isn't fanboying through. I have loved stat analysis since middle school when I discovered Mojo and film is in many ways a microcosm for pop culture. 

 

[Porthos]

15 minutes ago, The Panda said:

All this talk about, “It’s still doing great!”

 

But I can’t help but think, could it have done better if the kids had liked it? 🤔 

At the risk of saying "duh", of course it would be doing better.

 

But here's the thing.  Well, two things.  First off, 500 to 600 (or wherever it lands domestic) is a YUGE haul.  A big haul.  By under any definition, a great haul.

 

Second, when I said I was expecting low to mid 500s for a while now, that's because I baked in an uncertain feeling about this film into my projections.  I've said in multiple threads that there was something I couldn't quite place that was bothering me about this film (and, no it wasn't about emotions).  I think I've finally twigged what it is, but that isn't germane to this post (still not about emotions, FWIW).

 

Turns out, I might have been onto something there.  I would certainly agree that if the RT score was in the mid to high 80s it would have a much higher ceiling.  

 

But just because it could have made more doesn't mean it still isn't gonna do a lot.

 

And, frankly, we still don't know how it's gonna play out.  We all might have good reasons for our suspicions.  But suspicions are all they are right now.  Only time will tell if our hunches and theories are right.

Edited July 20, 2019 by Porthos

[excel1]

14 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Skywalker is not guaranteed 200m OW

uh yes it is

[RealLyre]

2 minutes ago, excel1 said:

uh yes it is

not after Cats took all its buzz 

[ScoobyDoo21]

2 minutes ago, excel1 said:

uh yes it is

why and how

[Molek]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Second, when I said I was expecting low to mid 500s for a while now, that's because I baked in an uncertain feeling about this film into my projections.  I've said in multiple threads that there was something I couldn't quite place that was bothering me about this film (and, no it wasn't about emotions).  I think I've finally twigged what it is, but that isn't germane to this post (still not about emotions, FWIW).



Ok, now I'm interested

[cannastop]

10 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

if TLK or Frozen 2 don't open to 200M, we probably won't see a non-CBM/SW open above 200M for the next decade or so. 

Man you don't even know what's opening in the next decade or so. Don't be so confident.

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, excel1 said:

uh yes it is

lol

[Mekanos]

I think a lot of people including myself were expecting a Jurassic World-level breakout where the GA just gobbles it up. The box office works in mysterious ways. I haven't seen the movie yet myself so I can't speak for it, but perhaps it wasn't enough to see the same movie with realistic animals. Maybe the lack of a story to spoil is causing less of a rush. Who knows. FWIW I do think OS is looking pretty strong and healthily over BATB but it's still pretty early.

 

It's also too early to speculate about legs. I was never confident in a Force Awakens-level hit myself but until the reviews hit I really did think 200 was a certainty. This is the kind of stuff that, I assume, is part of why we track box office, it's fun when it doesn't go the way we predict and it informs our knowledge about the industry going forward.

 

Goes without saying Disney will still cash a big fat check over this one. 

[PKMLover]

15 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

if TLK or Frozen 2 don't open to 200M, we probably won't see a non-CBM/SW open above 200M for the next decade or so. 

Avatar 2 says hi. That film has much hype.

Edited July 20, 2019 by PKMLover

[filmlover]

 

LION KING (2019), THE

[RealLyre]

3 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Man you don't even know what's opening in the next decade or so. Don't be so confident.

out of everything that's currently announced I don't see any non-CBM/SW film that could open above 200M (other than TLK or Frozen2) maybe saying next decade was an exaggeration, so maybe in the next 5 years? 

[KP1025]

I think Avatar 2 has a chance at $200 million OW if it's really as visually stunning as Cameron has hinted. 

[cannastop]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

out of everything that's currently announced I don't see any non-CBM/SW film that could open above 200M (other than TLK or Frozen2) maybe saying next decade was an exaggeration, so maybe in the next 5 years? 

Zootopia 2. 👀

[Legion Again]

38 minutes ago, superduperm said:

Endgame’s OW spoiled us. After a $357M OW people are starting to think $200M OW is something that should happen once in awhile, even if it’s not very realistic.

200M OW is something that should (and will) happen every once in a while. Welcome to 2019.    

 

That said, 186 or whatever  instead of 200 is not really a big difference. Feels big due to human cultural significance of round number,s but it’s just a 7% difference. Same as 122 vs 131 or whatnot.