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Eric Atreides

THE LION KING WEEKEND THREAD l WITH DIGITAL FUR TECHNOLOGY | 191.8M OW (July OW Record, 8th biggest OW of all time) | Endgame beats Avatar. Disney keeps on winning! | SALE: One Month of Gold 50% Off!

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11 minutes ago, Nero said:

I think some members including @Charlie Jatinder get carried away with OW prediction such as TLK OW will be 260-270 M. As I said there will be long time before anything even comes close to IW OW and no movie within 5 years atleast will be able to come near Endgame OW. You just don't realize how hard it is to hit those numbers. Also there are some delusional fans who irrespective of truth or what happened in the past still cling to the past with the illusion of something great. What If. Always with the What If the something hadn't happened this would have done this much and that much even though you can't change the past. But What If???? Also predicting 250M OW for TLK and then when realizing it won't hit that numbers still going with god knows what .... Annoying might be the good word to describe that person. You all know who it is.

Talking about me? 

 

No? Good.

Yes? Let It Go. I have

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1 minute ago, PKMLover said:

But the low OW only happened to Avatar. From Avatar 2, it will get so much much hype based on the first movie. 

Do you know what cause OW so high? Most of the times it is because it has big fan base. Aside from few BOT members Avatar doesn't have a big fan base who will rush to watch the movie on OW. It might happen to Avatar 4 or 5 they might be able to get 130M+ OW but Avatar 2 won't be able to cross 140M OW.

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9 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

A famously disappointing benchmark ;) 

maybe this weekend will make folks who think aou's ow was a disappointment that many years back.

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25 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

We were discussing the 300M mark.

Though I suspect End Games admissions record will probably last 50 years -

 

I suspect future mega openers will learn some things from End Game.

 

It's a combo of maximum accessibility via max previews, max screens, max theaters; dead market with no major films around it; time of year where discretionary income is high (unlike Christmas or mid-summer), time of year where people are in their school/work routines (less likely to go to movies on week days ala summer or holidays, more like to cram into weekend).

 

Not taking away from End Game, but many hypotheticals are real, so lets play in hindsight:

 

-THE FORCE AWAKENS would have almost certainly earned more opening on a weekend in early summer than it did around xmas. No way of knowing how much opening weekend dollars it cost but tons of people had less spending money that weekends, tons of people knew they could wait and see it over the coming holidays, etc. The "rush" factor wasn't as high as it is during a time like late April/May where people have extra spending money and save most social events for weekends. Totally possible that it would have hit $300m during time of year with more favorable conditions. 

 

-Films that far surpassed opening weekend expect like THE DARK KNIGHT and JURASSIC WORLD could have likely done more with more prepared theaters - both had plenty of theaters but not the screen/showtime counts one would expect). Well above normal levels (by mega opener standards) of opening weekend business was left on the table due to sell outs for both films. JW inflates to 230m and TDK ~240m when 3d and inflation taken into account, who knows how much higher they could have gone.

 

-No need to rehash but The DARK KNIGHT RISES obviously could have done way more under different circumstances and again, this was mid-July where people are more likely to wait for a week day and have a bit less casual spending money

 

-TRANSFORMERS 2 5 day gross inflates to over $300m with basic 3D bump factored in; this was mid-July where people are more likely to wait for a week day and have a bit less casual spending money

 

$300m is huge but I don't think it'll be then years until its reached again. $357m though? lol  

Edited by excel1
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1 minute ago, THUNDER BIRD said:

Talking about me? 

 

No? Good.

Yes? Let It Go. I have

Not you . Excel 1. He is talking constantly about what if the tragedy wouldn't have happened and what if TDKR would have got 3D it would have grossed 200M on OW. I mean this what if talk is rubbish you can't change the past. So get over with it. 

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4 minutes ago, Nero said:

Do you know what cause OW so high? Most of the times it is because it has big fan base. Aside from few BOT members Avatar doesn't have a big fan base who will rush to watch the movie on OW. It might happen to Avatar 4 or 5 they might be able to get 130M+ OW but Avatar 2 won't be able to cross 140M OW.

Avatar doesn't have big fan base????

I have seen lots of Avatar fans on the Internet, especially since Endgame appears to have a chance to pass it as the highest grossing movie, the Avatar fans appear everywhere. 

Edited by PKMLover
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Long time lurker here, finally decided to sign up and join the conversation. I believe TLK is heading towards a very healthy (although not as big as many have hoped for) run. Basing it off of @Rthhome Friday numbers, I see TLK having a 185+ OW.

 

Fri: 77mil

Sat: 63mil

Sun: 48mil

Total: 188mil

 

This gives TLK a really good chance at 480mil DOM haul and allowing it to end its run with a 1.16mil+ WW.  These are just very very conservative numbers that will still give the movie a very high chance at top 20 of all time and second highest live action adaptation.  

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2 minutes ago, a2k said:

maybe this weekend will make folks who think aou's ow was a disappointment that many years back.

It was the #2 OW of all time a2k. Can’t get more disappointing than that 😛 

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Recovering from Saturday Hall H Line PTSD (Seriously, Worst. Line. Management. I Have seen in 10 Years.  But we're really close boys, and it's not even Saturday!

 

yvuUbHo.jpg

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14 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

AOU dropping from TA was inevitable imo. Not sure what people were expecting really. It had no new hook to speak of. 

and 3 movies in between siphoning off ta1's goodwill to a degree.

 

16 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

It was the #2 OW of all time a2k. Can’t get more disappointing than that 😛 

:hahaha:

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6 minutes ago, Nero said:

Not you . Excel 1. He is talking constantly about what if the tragedy wouldn't have happened and what if TDKR would have got 3D it would have grossed 200M on OW. I mean this what if talk is rubbish you can't change the past. So get over with it. 

Analyzing how certain variables positively or negatively affected a films performance is pretty common. Sometimes its clear something under or over performed its potential. TDKR is probably the most obvious example of a film whose opening weekend was severely effected by outside events.

 

Theres nothing to "get over", it's learning. 

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1 minute ago, infamous5445 said:

Endgame is gonna be the 2nd highest single territory grosser after this weekend. That's another 2nd place record you can add to the list.

Passing Wolf Warrior 2 I suppose? It's crazy how huge this movie was in China!

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1 minute ago, captainwondyful said:

Recovering from Saturday Hall H Line PTSD (Seriously, Worst. Line. Management. I Have seen in 10 Years.  But we're really close boys, and it's not even Saturday!

 

yvuUbHo.jpg

What's "utzied?"

 

Also, think you can check off "bad reviews took X off OW:"

 

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

At the risk of saying "duh", of course it would be doing better.

 

But here's the thing.  Well, two things.  First off, 500 to 600 (or wherever it lands domestic) is a YUGE haul.  A big haul.  By under any definition, a great haul.

 

Second, when I said I was expecting low to mid 500s for a while now, that's because I baked in an uncertain feeling about this film into my projections.  I've said in multiple threads that there was something I couldn't quite place that was bothering me about this film (and, no it wasn't about emotions).  I think I've finally twigged what it is, but that isn't germane to this post (still not about emotions, FWIW).

 

Turns out, I might have been onto something there.  I would certainly agree that if the RT score was in the mid to high 80s it would have a much higher ceiling.  

 

But just because it could have made more doesn't mean it still isn't gonna do a lot.

 

And, frankly, we still don't know how it's gonna play out.  We all might have good reasons for our suspicions.  But suspicions are all they are right now.  Only time will tell if our hunches and theories are right.

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