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THE LION KING WEEKEND THREAD l WITH DIGITAL FUR TECHNOLOGY | 191.8M OW (July OW Record, 8th biggest OW of all time) | Endgame beats Avatar. Disney keeps on winning! | SALE: One Month of Gold 50% Off!

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Just now, john2000 said:

it depends i would say, for me at least i only thought that 2 billion would be like the best scenario, if dom had made 700-750 and china had made like 300 million like gavin thought so after the teaser dropped,from what i have seen so far most people here predicted realistically  1,4-1,7 and it will come in that range, so ....

 

Well, we will see.

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14 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

And here's the post I took a lot of shit for, from a lot of members, but not from Charlie.  And here we are with a 77 million Friday.  Some of you owe me an apology.

I took issue with the way you put it, and definitely not apologizing for that. 9AM numbers are very uncertain, yes. That deserves to be emphasized more, yes.

 

But it has nothing to do with being “kind of sort of terrible at times when it comes to extrapolating.” Nor was it with “no basis at all.” It had a clear basis in the sales up to that point and historical patterns for other films releasing in similar calendar conditions.

Edited by Thanos Legion
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11 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

And here's the post I took a lot of shit for, from a lot of members, but not from Charlie.  And here we are with a 77 million Friday.  Some of you owe me an apology.

your point wasnt wrong, but you could say it with a better way, anyway it was possible for the movie to hit the initial numbers but it was more presale heavy, so it wasnt like the info didnt support that od, but more of it was more presale heavy 

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1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

I took issue with the way you put it, and definitely not apologizing for that. 9AM numbers are very uncertain, yes. That deserves to be emphasized more, yes.

 

But it has nothing to do with being “kind of sort of terrible at times when it comes to extrapolating.” Nor was it with “no basis at all.” It had a clear basis in the sales up to that point and historical patterns for other films releasing in similar calendar conditions.

 

He is terrible at extrapolating at times.  And there was no basis for at all to say it was going to do more than 90 million.  And I was proven right.  So don't apologize, but I was right.

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1 minute ago, baumer said:

 

He is terrible at extrapolating at times.  And there was no basis for at all to say it was going to do more than 90 million.  And I was proven right.  So don't apologize, but I was right.

no there was basis for this to hit 90 od, it wasnt unrealistic and many people said that too

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And OD 9AM is always the most unreliable, since you don’t know what that movie’s presale heaviness is yet. Time and time again when a new movie comes out in markets with public real time data (e.g. China and SK) the morning OD estimate will miss big but the rest of the days you can get pretty close from 9AM.

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1 minute ago, john2000 said:

no there was basis for this to hit 90 od, it wasnt unrealistic and many people said that too

 

This was always going to be frontloaded.  It's got a massive rush factor to it.  So that's why i said it wouldn't hit 90 and that's why i said the expectations needed to be tempered.  Some of you guys just get excited for big numbers and forget the laws of box office from time to time.

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Just now, baumer said:

 

This was always going to be frontloaded.  It's got a massive rush factor to it.  So that's why i said it wouldn't hit 90 and that's why i said the expectations needed to be tempered.  Some of you guys just get excited for big numbers and forget the laws of box office from time to time.

wtf are you talking about, i said that we had a basis , i didnt say that it was locked, plus its not like i am dissapointed with this number, its not fantastic but its great

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3 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

He is terrible at extrapolating at times.  And there was no basis for at all to say it was going to do more than 90 million.  And I was proven right.  So don't apologize, but I was right.

Just because you don’t have access to the basis doesn't mean it doesn’t exist, lol.   

 

And you seem to be confusing “trying feats of extrapolation with large error bars by nature” with “extrapolating poorly.” Anybody could ensure that they had a very low % error by just not sharing what they were seeing until it was so late as to be pretty obvious. Perhaps you’d prefer that style, but very many people here do not.

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1 minute ago, Damianport1 said:

You lost a loot credibility today and you know it. The king is one and its RTH

 

He didn't lose an ounce of credibility.  Numbers fluctuate and they have to do some extrapolation.  I can attest to this first hand as I watched RTH do it on a patio in downtown Toronto.  He was figuring out the daily gross for Hitman's Bodyguard and he used a cocktail napkin and a pen and his laptop.  He had to add and multiply and finally came up with a number using extrapolation.  He was pretty close too.  It's not an exact number, but these guys get very close.  

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Just now, Thanos Legion said:

Just because you don’t have access to the basis doesn't mean it doesn’t exist, lol.   

 

And you seem to be confusing “trying feats of extrapolation with large error bars by nature” with “extrapolating poorly.” Anybody could ensure that they had a very low % error by just not sharing what they were seeing until it was so late as to be pretty obvious. Perhaps you’d prefer that style, but very many people here do not.

 

I love that Charlie gives us raw numbers.  Without his this site would be much more boring.  But when he gives out predictions based on those numbers, it sends the masses into a frenzy and then if it doesn't get to those numbers, people wonder what went wrong.

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3 minutes ago, Damianport1 said:

You lost a loot credibility today and you know it. The king is one and its RTH

he didn't. he is great with numbers 99.99% of the time (he has provided accurate midweek numbers for how long now?) and had mentioned that 90+ is based on very early data. what he brings to the site is incalculable. completely changed the nature of weekday threads.

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2 hours ago, PKMLover said:

But the low OW only happened to Avatar because people had no idea about it before. From Avatar 2, it will get so much much hype based on the first movie. 

There was also a massive fucking blizzard. 

Edited by AJG
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8 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

 I can attest to this first hand as I watched RTH do it on a patio in downtown Toronto.  He was figuring out the daily gross for Hitman's Bodyguard and he used a cocktail napkin and a pen and his laptop.  

This part is amazing. 

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8 minutes ago, Damianport1 said:

You lost a loot credibility today and you know it. The king is one and its RTH

first: there's no competition here, they're both helpful for the community and this shouldn't even been discussing, they're both have no obligations to do nothing and still they are here providing numbers.

 

second: numbers is a variable thing, he gave an early extrapolation based on data but things change, and it's great for us to actually have something to discuss so early. sometimes he's wrong, everyone knows it could go up or down from early estimates, it happens, deal with it.

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11 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

I love that Charlie gives us raw numbers.  Without his this site would be much more boring.  But when he gives out predictions based on those numbers, it sends the masses into a frenzy and then if it doesn't get to those numbers, people wonder what went wrong.

Late extrapolations are always good. Middle of day extrapolations are often good. Early extrapolations are surprisingly often pretty good, but hit or miss by nature. I just feel like his extrapolation skills get an inaccurate bad rap because no one else even attempts the third category domestically. I think on ODs specially it might be better not to provide them at all, since it has been proven time and time again that people can’t take them for what they are.   

 

On the other hand, ODs are when people are most data hungry. Quite the inconvenient overlap there 😛 

Edited by Thanos Legion
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