THE LION KING WEEKEND THREAD l WITH DIGITAL FUR TECHNOLOGY | 191.8M OW (July OW Record, 8th biggest OW of all time) | Endgame beats Avatar. Disney keeps on winning! | SALE: One Month of Gold 50% Off!

[FlashMaster659]

22.5

60.8

68.1

54.5

 

205.4

[VanillaSkies]

RT Verified Audience Score 93% with 132 reviews. 

Looks like WOM will be just fine. Another Aladdin type disconnect between critics and regular audiences. 

[elcaballero]

1 minute ago, VanillaSkies said:

RT Verified Audience Score 93% with 132 reviews. 

Looks like WOM will be just fine. Another Aladdin type disconnect between critics and regular audiences. 

Not to pick on TLK specifically, but have we gotten a sense of how much RT's Verified system has led to score inflation?

[FlashMaster659]

Starting in 2 min. See y’all on the other side!

[DAR]

1 minute ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Starting in 2 min. See y’all on the other side!

If you don’t survive the Cats trailer we’ll tell your story 

[FlashMaster659]

Just now, DAR said:

If you don’t survive the Cats trailer we’ll tell your story 

Out of reactions 

[cannastop]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

That top critic score for TLK is going from poor to yikes. Pretty much the worst top critic score for a Disney movie in the last few years except for the Nutcracker. 

Eh that shit doesn't matter.

[ban1o]

Mmm I just saw this...I liked it for what it was which was basically a scene for scene remake. Rogen and Eichner highlights.

 

See with Aladdin I actually though it improved on some aspects of the animated film (filled in some plot holes and improved Jasmine's character drastically). That's why I thought the reviews were unfair for Aladdin.

 

This didn't improve any aspects from the animated film at all. Almost everything was inferior to the animation. I really felt like they could have done so much more. I still really enjoyed it though. "Just can't wait to be King" was very well done. The child actors were very talented. I actually enjoyed the "Be Prepared" number. I don't get the hate for it. It was different but it wasn't bad. Hakuna Matata was okay but I felt they could have done more with it. James Earl Jones was great as Mufasa. My audience was full with a lot of kids. The audience seemed to enjoy it. Although one girl wa scared

 

I think it will have decent legs but not strong as Aladdin's. The actors in Aladdin gave it a lot of charisma and it was actually a bit different than the animated movie. This was exactly the same. It will definitely do well at the boxoffice though. 

 

 

Edited July 19, 2019 by ban1o

[LawrenceBrolivier]

I have a very hard time believing this opens to under $200mil. Not with that theater count. 

 

11 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

RT Verified Audience Score 93% with 132 reviews. 

Looks like WOM will be just fine. Another Aladdin type disconnect between critics and regular audiences. 

I'm confused why you're trying to draw a meaningful distinction between "regular audiences" and "critics" by pointing to 132 people who are so invested in their own opinions that they'll watch a movie the day before it officially opens and then immediately go to rotten tomatoes to rate it. 
 

To be frank.... that's not a thing regular people do, either.... What you're counting are 132 amateur and/or wanna-be critics as a means to minimize the opinions of real ones. 

[VanillaSkies]

9 minutes ago, elcaballero said:

Not to pick on TLK specifically, but have we gotten a sense of how much RT's Verified system has led to score inflation?

It hasn't been too long yet with the verified audience split, but it seems in many cases to be similar. 

Aladdin for example is 94% verified, 91% regular. 
Toy Story 4 is 94% verified, 93% regular.
Spiderman is 96% verified, 95% regular. 

 

Where you see the big difference is opening weekend.

Generally the "review bombers" will bring the all audience score down quite a bit. Over time though, it gradually catches up to the verified score once review bombers realize their efforts are having little effect. 

So in that sense, I think the verified system has done exactly what RT had hoped would be the outcome. 

The Lion King all audience score started in the mid 70s and has already started to climb. Is 77% now. 

We will see it continue to climb through the weekend and catch up with the verified score. 

[cax16]

Should be a fun weekend thread to follow. 

[VanillaSkies]

3 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

I have a very hard time believing this opens to under $200mil. Not with that theater count. 

 

I'm confused why you're trying to draw a meaningful distinction between "regular audiences" and "critics" by pointing to 132 people who are so invested in their own opinions that they'll watch a movie the day before it officially opens and then immediately go to rotten tomatoes to rate it. 
 

To be frank.... that's not a thing regular people do, either.... What you're counting are 132 amateur and/or wanna-be critics as a means to minimize the opinions of real ones. 

That's literally what audiences do in droves.

They see a movie, and then review it after. 

And not just on RT, but they go to twitter as well. Search the Lion King on Twitter and you will see review after review. It's literally what most people will do after seeing a movie.

 

If you've been around this forum, you'd also know that audience score generally stays the same from opening night through the weekend, even as more reviews are added. So it is definitely a valid data point. 

 

Not really sure what kind of point you were trying to make, but I don't think you succeeded.

 

 

 

[Curtis1986]

Just got out. To say this is going to be a major crowd-pleaser as understatement. People were literally singing every single song even the new one that I didn't even think they knew. 

[VanillaSkies]

Just now, Curtis1986 said:

Just got out. To say this is going to be a major crowd-pleaser as understatement. People were literally singing every single song even the new one that I didn't even think they knew. 

Sounding more and more like an Aladdin scenario. 

Critics dislike, audiences eat it up. 

 

Except in this case, it's opening weekend will be much bigger as it's arguably the biggest and most well known modern animated film of all time when taking inflation into consideration. If it displays some powerful legs, we might see an impressive total afterall. 

Still early, but signs are pointing to a better than expected reception after the doom and gloom that has been thrown around by some over the last little while. 

[CalifoBoy]

Guys i've already watched the movie in imax 3D in my country (Portugal) and all i can say to you all is that this is TIMON AND PUMBA'S MOVIE! ❤️

[Mekanos]

I told you guys to wait for audience reactions but some wanted critics' heads on a pike lol.

[RamblinRed]

17 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

It hasn't been too long yet with the verified audience split, but it seems in many cases to be similar. 

Aladdin for example is 94% verified, 91% regular. 
Toy Story 4 is 94% verified, 93% regular.
Spiderman is 96% verified, 95% regular. 

 

Where you see the big difference is opening weekend.

Generally the "review bombers" will bring the all audience score down quite a bit. Over time though, it gradually catches up to the verified score once review bombers realize their efforts are having little effect. 

So in that sense, I think the verified system has done exactly what RT had hoped would be the outcome. 

The Lion King all audience score started in the mid 70s and has already started to climb. Is 77% now. 

We will see it continue to climb through the weekend and catch up with the verified score. 

Up to 79%.

 

I think it will be just fine. Ultimately the GA will decide legs, not critics. Still way too early to know about legs - great, good or bad. That won't become obvious for a week or so.

 

I think the critics have a different mindset than the GA. The critics were clearly expecting something new, something different. Having talked to a number of people planning on seeing it, that is the last thing they wanted. They basically wanted the animated movie with live looking animals and the most up to date technology. 

 

 

[LawrenceBrolivier]

16 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

That's literally what audiences do in droves.

They see a movie, and then review it after. 

"Droves" isn't 132 people.... It's not even 13,200 people. Even if I grant that 132,000 people gave enough of a damn about any movie to go and rate it at rotten tomatoes or imdb... that's not "droves." Maybe it's a drove... I guess... if I knew exactly what a "drove" even measured out to, LOL. But that's still a tiny percentage of the "regular" audience. 

 

I personally don't know a single person in real life who has ever watched a movie and then cared enough to go to rotten tomatoes and rate it and leave a review.... I'm the only person I know in real life who cares enough about the box office to lurk a forum for years and then post at it, too....

We're not a good representation of the regular audience.... Twitter isn't a good representation of anything but self-hate, really. A good representation is what the box office is for... and even then, it's only good for showing popularity, not quality.... And this movie is going to be exceedingly popular. 
 

Edited July 19, 2019 by LawrenceBrolivier

[Porthos]

(semi xpost with the Tracking thread)

(see here for other comps, including large CBMs)

 

The Lion King Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

PREMIERE NIGHT (FINAL REPORT) [4:30pm - 5:45pm]

(sellouts for THIS REPORT ONLY includes ALL showings with six or less seats left)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	7	289	17020	27997	10977	39.21%

 

Total Sellouts Added Since 1pm:          7

Total Showings Added Since 1pm:        1

Total Seats Added Since 1pm:           166

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1800 

 

Unadjusted Comps

2.8146x as many tickets sold as Aladdin at stop of tracking.                     [19.7m]

1.6369x as many tickets sold as Toy Story 4 at stop of tracking.                [19.6m]

 

Detailed Final Comps:

 

Aladdin: [5:00pm - 5:30pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	117	9953	13853	3900	28.15%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:             809

 

Toy Story 4 [4:30pm - 5:30pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	153	11031	17237	6206	36.00%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:            1228

 

Adjusted Comps

1.5806x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking.  [24m]

ADJUSTMENT NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.  It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in a different number of theaters locally.

 

Detailed Final Comps (adj):

 

JW2: [5:30pm - 6:15pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	147	7487	13715	6228	45.41%

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:           1275

 

TLK (JW)*: [4:30pm - 5:45pm]

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	7	289	12848	22692	9844	43.38%

* TLK (JW) is the number of tickets sold at the same theaters I had tracking info for Fallen Kingdom

 

Total Seats Sold Since 1pm:      1593

 

===============

 

For the record, 6 showings for a total of 23 tickets sold were manually adjusted for showings with six seats or fewer left.  Before the adjustment, the count was as follows:

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	1	289	17043	27997	10954	39.13%

 

=====

 

Some thoughts on what Sacramento might be showing if it is indicative of the DOM market as a whole:

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Alright, some quick thoughts.

 

It is possible Sacramento is underperforming slightly and/or it's also possible that both Aladdin and TS4 over-performed, thus dragging down the ratio (Pika PIka has its own set of problems being a 4pm start with previews).

 

And I did see even more of an uptick of sales in the 9pm window.  But gotta go where the data leads me, so locally at least Sacramento is suggesting a flat 20m in previews.  Let's say an error bar of +/- .4m to that.  I can see as high as 20.5m.  Also can see as low as 19.5m.  

 

Problem for me is, there are a LOT of seats left in the 9pm and later window.  And while another film with a shit-ton of shows locally (CM) suggests 21.5m, I have to think more kids tickets will be purchased for TLK than CM.

 

Anywho, if it's a lot higher than 20.5, say closer to the JW:FK comp of 24m, then it's very probable that far fewer children tickets were purchased for TLK than for Pika Pika, Aladdin, or TS4.  Why that would be beats me though.  

 

Find out soon enough.

 

 

[dxmatrixdt]

7 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

- POST RESERVED FOR THE NEW NUMBERS THAT WILL SHOW UP OVER THE WEEKEND -

Domestic

Overseas

China: 72.6

France: 4.8

Australia: 2.9

Germany: 2.3

Korea: 2.2

Overall: 94.5

Worldwide

 

.... are in position to check to see the theaters are there...