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[terrestrial]

What some people here seem to forget too often:

 

A prediction is usually based on assumptions like average for a certain genre or franchise, based on a minimum of critic and or audience reception, average weather conditions for the release date, typical for the genre.... gender / age split, and such.

 

As earlier as less details are known about how much the details will match.

 

Predictions can be based on excellent models, but if only one detail is not a match, the impact on the result can be small to huge.

 

So if a movie does make more or less than some 'predicted', and matches more another POVs prediction = does not always mean one was better than the other based on models, only that the sum of the details landed nearer to one group.

 

= no need for overreactions, down-speaking, arrogance and so on....

 

Same counts for very early predictions of e.g. Charlie and so on:

as earlier as rougher, as earlier as less know reaction details, as earlier as more prone to e.g. WOM based changes and so on.

Pattern only work for average situations, never for outlier nor in another way not 100% average projects

Again, no need for snide remarks and such.

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

At least kids think that this remake is worse than the original. Already makes them smarter than the parents paying for this movie.

[water]

so basically it's gonna play like aladdin, smaller ow because of prerelease mixed buzz but audiences love it and it has excellent legs

[titanic2187]

In independent film market, The Farewell is looking for about 1m 2nd weekend.  On par with The favourite's expansion. 

 

I can see potential 20m+ total(without any oscar bump), a win for this english mix mandarin bilingual sundance drama   

 

[john2000]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

At least kids think that this remake is worse than the original. Already makes them smarter than the parents paying for this movie.

there is no smart or clever here, we are talking about opinions here, its idiotic to call people smart or clever bc they agree with your own opinion, thats not how it works 

[baumer]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

BTW I just checked the theater I'm seeing Lion King at later today and everything is filling up throughout the day fast (to the point where even rows A and B in the bigger auditoriums are selling). Wouldn't be surprised if it managed a nice increase from true Friday.

 

No disrespect or offense intended but these are the kind of posts that I don't understand. If a movie this size is not selling out then it's not going to make 60 million dollars on a Saturday or any day.... of course there's going to be sellouts.

[DAR]

There will be backlash to the movie.   Them backlash to the backlash. Then backlash to the backlash to the backlash. Then backlash to the backlash to the backlash to the backlash.  Then.......

[KP1025]

So much for following the rules in the OP.

 

Quote

7. DON'T BE A DICK. Threads lately have started to become a little too toxic. This is especially true the last couple of weeks, where this film’s discourse has become so strong that even this remake’s very existence has people debating  the merits and ethics of the film industry and its future.

 

But whatever the reason may be, if you're not following any of these rules or are straight up not being nice, you're going to get the banhammer smashed onto you. Doing some concern trolling to a movie? Banned. Revealing that Scar kills Dumbledore? Banned. Trying to start arguments on controversial topics? Banned. Just posting something unpleasant or mean? Banned. If you're not sure if your post is nice, think to yourself this: "If I post this, will people get mad?" If so, then don't post it. And if you're unsure if you can handle being nice for one weekend, then, simply put, get out of here. You probably know what I'm gonna say next.

 

[Nova]

6 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

So much for following the rules in the OP.

 

 

This is BOT. No one follows the rules around here. 

[filmlover]

I also don't exactly agree with the "non-corporate cinema is dead" notion. Say what you want about the movie, but Green Book made $85M thanks almost entirely to older audiences even if it had the advantage of being a Best Picture frontrunner. Jordan Peele also made a directorial debut that made such a big impact the follow-up posted similarly huge numbers. It's just that it's a more contained market for those kinds of movies and is only more glaring now because the hits have only gotten bigger (we've had 5 $600M+ grossers in just the last two years, for instance). Wonderful movie that deserved more than it made that it was, Booksmart (the one movie whose eh-ish numbers have seemed to left many bitter) wouldn't have made more than say, Love, Simon's $40M gross even in the absolute best case scenario.

[That One Girl]

.

Edited March 2, 2022 by That One Guy

[Geo1500]

Upon checking BOM I realized the numbers for friday were only est and not actuals. Shouldn't we be having the actuals by now
 

Edited July 20, 2019 by Geo1500

[Jake Gittes]

14 minutes ago, DAR said:

There will be backlash to the movie.   Them backlash to the backlash. Then backlash to the backlash to the backlash. Then backlash to the backlash to the backlash to the backlash.

No one'll remember it long enough for it to reach even the third of those stages.

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

Upon checking BOM I realized the numbers of friday were only est and not actuals. Shouldn't we be having the actuals by now
 

over the weekend the studios only oblige us with estimates. actulas for fri sat and sun release on monday. but charlie frequently and rth sometimes (for event films ) give us actuals over the weekend.

[Claudio]

3 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

Upon checking BOM I realized the numbers for friday were only est and not actuals. Shouldn't we be having the actuals by now
 

Actuals from Friday , Saturday , Sunday all will be announced on Monday as part of weekend actuals.

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

Upon checking BOM I realized the numbers for friday were only est and not actuals. Shouldn't we be having the actuals by now
 

Never any FSS actuals until Monday.

[Jake Gittes]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I also don't exactly agree with the "non-corporate cinema is dead" notion. Say what you want about the movie, but Green Book made $85M thanks almost entirely to older audiences even if it had the advantage of being a Best Picture frontrunner. Jordan Peele also made a directorial debut that made such a big impact the follow-up posted similarly huge numbers. It's just that it's a more contained market for those kinds of movies and is only more glaring now because the hits have only gotten bigger (we've had 5 $600M+ grossers in just the last two years, for instance). Wonderful movie that deserved more than it made that it was, Booksmart (the one movie whose eh-ish numbers have seemed to left many bitter) wouldn't have made more than say, Love, Simon's $40M gross even in the absolute best case scenario.

It's not dead but it's not getting advantages or the necessary exposure. The hits always have room to get bigger. And partly because of that, movies like Booksmart in almost all cases can only get smaller. And smaller and smaller. Unless they either become an unexpected wom sensation or were made by one of the very few directors who are themselves brand names. 

[Geo1500]

4 minutes ago, a2k said:

over the weekend the studios only oblige us with estimates. actulas for fri sat and sun release on monday. but charlie frequently and rth sometimes (for event films ) give us actuals over the weekend.

 

3 minutes ago, Claudio said:

Actuals from Friday , Saturday , Sunday all will be announced on Monday as part of weekend actuals.

 

3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Never any FSS actuals until Monday.

 

Thanks guys. 🤙

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Jake Gittes said:

It's not dead but it's not getting advantages or the necessary exposure. The hits always have room to get bigger. And partly because of that, movies like Booksmart in almost all cases can only get smaller. And smaller and smaller. Unless they either become an unexpected wom sensation or were made by one of the very few directors who are themselves brand names. 

I feel like it's hard for movies like that to gain that kind of exposure in this day and age when the line has become more blurred thanks to the rise of streaming tbh.

[john2000]

for tlk to hit 2 billion everything should go best best  case scenario, for iw it was easier to see 2 billion, as at least avengers 1 was short of 500 million, while for the lion king to hit 2 billion it would need to make as much as beauty and the beast plus another 750 million, the thing that always bothered or found weird if you will was the fact that people really thought ( and i am not judging why, it was their opinion) that lion had chances to hit 2 billion, while they were more sceptical for endgame, the weird thing was that while for the lion king we only had theorys, for endgame we had proofs, we knew that avengers were in asia/china, and big enough in europe and dom to challenge 2 billion, while as far as remakes go china wasnt very big on them , and asid while good didn make huge buisness, while europe was decent/good, and for dom the highest was 500, i was one from the people who really thought that lion king could hit 2 billion but if everything went right like the perfect storm, my realistic expectation was and still is 1,5-1,7, until i see otherwise, so could the movie had done better ? yes, was more frontloaded than expected and will not be  as big like close to to 2billion than people were hoping for ? sure/possible , but it is by no means bad, its very good 1,5-1,7 was the realistic prediction and it will come to that range, it will be just on the low end, as for dom we could see 600 million, however it isnt the floor at least as of now its closer to the ceiling,