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Eric Atreides

Halloween Kills | October 15, 2021 | Uni/Blumhouse | Releases day-and-date in theaters and Peacock | 35% on RT

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1 minute ago, EmpireCity said:

The factor at play here is I'm hearing this morning that Universal the studio does not want to do this.  They hate it and want to stay theatrical only, but there is tremendous pressure from above at NBC to help boost a struggling Peacock streaming and that they need desperate help.  Sort of similar to Warner Bros. getting overridden by AT&T and Paramount not having full say with CBS.  

 

 

Given how animated movies have been arguably the easiest movies to change their release plans throughout the pandemic, I don't think anyone would be surprised (and perhaps is already expecting) an announcement that Sing 2 will be day-and-date in December any day now as well.

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Guys cases are exploding here in the US and it's the beginning of Sept.   I get it NBC doesn't want to fall behind in the streaming wars.  Peacock is actually an affordable service too at about 5 bucks.  They may have pressured Universal but I understand the move.   I don't think they can push this back again.  Plus it comes out so close to Halloween.  Listen hybrid is an option for Studios right now and they rather do this than push it back.   I don't think this was going to make "Halloween 2018" numbers.  It's been 3 years.   It was going to drop as most horror film series do.    I'm sure the budget was manageable.   We are in unique times people.   

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With how box office has been, I don't see the cases as the only reason. This easily could have gone to Peacock after 17 days (if it premiered under 50M) or 45 days if it did, ensuring that they maximized their box office potential while also allowing those who couldn't see it to catch up not long after. 

 

But it is what it is.

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There's something so very flawed about Peacock.

 

It's clearly a Free app with an optional premium option, similar to YouTube's relationship with it's Premium add-on. I don't get the sense that Premium is the main focus.

 

Going through the selection of TV and films on the app reminds me of browsing the DVD shelf at a petrol station or £1 store. It's got all the over-manufactured discount bin faves: ET, Knocked Up, Twins, Drive, 50 First Dates, and 3 randomly chosen Fast and Furious films. There's a section dedicated to 'Indies' made up of straight to iTunes disasters. It takes the discount DVD effect a step further because none of that old stuff ever leaves and no new stuff gets made available. 

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There's around 14 days window from infection to confirmation, sometimes even more.

 

The cases are from late August, which was the peak. It's probably starting to slow down now but we only gonna see it in 2-3 weeks.

 

And it's clear that this have nothing to do with Delta, things are very bad for more than a month now and we have 3 movies overperforming. EC said it's to help Peacock and seems like the logical explanation.

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1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Given how animated movies have been arguably the easiest movies to change their release plans throughout the pandemic, I don't think anyone would be surprised (and perhaps is already expecting) an announcement that Sing 2 will be day-and-date in December any day now as well.

A hybrid release will work out far better for Sing 2. We all know what happened to Pets 2, and that was during a healthy year for theaters.

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First , we have too many streaming platform, oversupply of platform and nothing much within are eventful. Imagine if this is during pandemic, I can expect the situation will become worse after worldwide reopening, 

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1 hour ago, CJ Sarandos said:

The Peacock logo. Oh Universal. That shit is never gonna take off. Time for a joint venture with Paramount or else both are dead.

As far as I’m aware, Universal is generally doing better than Paramount these days. 

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I'm still sticking to my final prediction - 29.5 million $ opening weekend. 33-5 million $ at it's best, but bad reviews and Peacock will harm the film. Not as much as they would any other genre in October, but for those who are too optimistic - brace yourselves for lower numbers.

 

And this is the expected gross weekend by weekend, if my prediction is correct:

 

1. 29.5$ million

2. 10.8$ million / 49.4 million $

3. 5.8$ million / 58.6 million $

4. 2.4$ million / 62.8 million $

5. 0.8$ million / 64.3 million $

 

So I guess - 65 million $ total, give or take, is what we should expect.

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22 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The newest trailer doesn't list IMAX. It'll probably take nighttime PLF shows away from No Time to Die, but I don't expect theaters to fully ditch it for Halloween.

I don't usually pay attention to how PLF distribution works, but I'm assuming it'll go NTTD IMAX, Last Duel morning/afternoon PLFs, and Halloween evening PLFs

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50 minutes ago, Eric and the Ten Rings said:

I don't usually pay attention to how PLF distribution works, but I'm assuming it'll go NTTD IMAX, Last Duel morning/afternoon PLFs, and Halloween evening PLFs

Oftentimes it boils down to tracking. IMAX has a lot of control over what plays on their screens, so studios will make sure their biggest titles get an adequate run in the format by putting deals in place. Riskier or underdog titles will normally only get IMAX if they're tracking well before release and have potential to do better than whatever was playing the week prior. However, whether or not these films play depends on pre-existing contracts with studios. Free Guy is the most recent example of this as it was never confirmed for IMAX until right before release. Suicide Squad still needed some IMAX presence since it was shot in the format and heavily promoted as such, so some IMAXs either split showtimes or outright kept TSS when Free Guy opened due to a pre-existing deal. Sometimes a planned IMAX release will track so poorly and not have a robust deal in place where IMAX can reduce screens and showtimes to accommodate the previous week's release. Reminiscence is a good example of this since most of its IMAX screens and showtimes were abandoned with only a handful remaining to uphold the contract. Looking back at Halloween 2018, it couldn't get IMAX until its second week since Universal wanted to uphold First Man's contract.

 

Dolby and other theater-based PLFs work a bit differently. Unless a studio makes a contract with a chain like they do with IMAX, theaters often decide what plays week-to-week under normal contracts. It's rare that a studio will sign a deal to ensure their movies get theater-operated PLFs since they'll usually place them there anyways if a film is tracking well. A lot more movies will be marketed with Dolby Cinema but not actually play in the format due to this (once again, Reminiscence is a recent example). 

 

Last Duel has received no Dolby promotion in its marketing. Something like Last Duel would only get Dolby and other theater based PLFs if it's tracking better than expected going into its OW and can challenge Halloween/NTTD. However, it might not even finish in the top 3 that weekend depending how Venom holds, so I think Disney forfeited any chance of PLF space by keeping it there.

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