The Last Duel - Ridley Scott, Matt Damon & Adam Driver | October 15, 2021

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Stillwater opened to 5.18. Same weekend, Green Knight did 6.79m.

 

This going as low would be a disaster. Even with a 150 minute runtime. It’s a Fox release and should have more theaters.

 

I would still say 8-10m. I hope it doesn’t come in lower. Major concerns for the fall if it does.

[lorddemaxus]

Didn't really think about it, but now that I am, below $10 mil would be awful. Going below The Counselor even though this is an easier sell would especially be really bad. If even this movie can't open past $10 mil, then I don't see any other smaller adult-oriented movie this year besides West Side Story and King Richard opening past that mark either.

[Firepower]

19 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

West Side Story

Is it really adult-oriented?

[lorddemaxus]

45 minutes ago, Firepower said:

Is it really adult-oriented?

Most of its audience will be over like 35, so yeah. 

[Ozymandias]

I've seen enough enough, 70+ MC and 80-85% RT finish for this.  Huge win for a medieval epic, far better than The King and Outlaw King.  Ridley Scott needs to stay away from fairy tale crap like Robin Hood and Moses and stick with heavy stuff like this.  Gladiator, Kingdom of Heaven, and The Last Duel would make for a great triple feature. 

 

Looking forward to his Napoleon biopic/war epic with Joaquin Phoenix and Jodie Comer now

Edited October 12, 2021 by Ozymandias

[TwoMisfits]

So, both my Cinemarks set for the weekend - one stuck to just 3 showings for this/day and the other has 4...

 

With those kinda sets, I'm almost certain this will be under $10M, which seems crazy with the pedigree, but it is what it is:).

 

If I was guessing, those who are circling around $4-7M will probably be on point...

[Valonqar]

9 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

I've seen enough enough, 70+ MC and 80-85% RT finish for this.  Huge win for a medieval epic, far better than The King and Outlaw King.  Ridley Scott needs to away from fairy tale crap like Robin Hood and Moses and stick with heavy stuff like this.  Gladiator, Kingdom of Heaven, and The Last Duel would make for a great triple feature. 

 

Looking forward to his Napoleon biopic/war epic with Joaquin Phoenix and Jodie Comer now

 

well said. I think it will be a tripple treat with those 2 other movies when it hits home video cause, as @TwoMisfits says, this will open 4-7M only.

 

Yes, very hyped for Napoleon too. But first 

Edited October 12, 2021 by Valonqar

[Eric Duncan]

8 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Didn't really think about it, but now that I am, below $10 mil would be awful. Going below The Counselor even though this is an easier sell would especially be really bad. If even this movie can't open past $10 mil, then I don't see any other smaller adult-oriented movie this year besides West Side Story and King Richard opening past that mark either.

Feel like House of Gucci has a better shot than those two. Lady Gaga should pull in some of the 18-34s unlike West Side which will be senior central. Richard will die bc of Max.

[Cmasterclay]

After a rough star in Venice, reviews for this have gotten to be pretty much outstanding. Not at all ruling out an Oscar run if this made any money (which it probably won't).

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

40 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

After a rough star in Venice, reviews for this have gotten to be pretty much outstanding. Not at all ruling out an Oscar run if this made any money (which it probably won't).

I said this before, but they really should not have even premiered at Venice. However, of course they need the prestige and buzz because how the hell else are you gonna open a drama in fall during these times. Double-edged sword

[lorddemaxus]

1 hour ago, Eric Atreides said:

Feel like House of Gucci has a better shot than those two. Lady Gaga should pull in some of the 18-34s unlike West Side which will be senior central. Richard will die bc of Max.

Yeah, I guess Gucci too. West Side Story might aim old but even ITH opened over $10 mil. Shouldn't be too hard to pass that. And King Richard might be HBO Max but its target audience is less likely to have HBO Max (due to wider accessibility problems), which could help it a lot. It's a part of the reason why Space Jam 2 overperformed imo.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Spielberg is pretty dependable with openings still. Bridge of Spies did 15m and The Post expanded to 19m when going wide. This doesn't have Hanks but West Side Story is one of the most popular musicals ever. It's a December release and first big film since... Encanto? I'd probably predict 13ish and decent legs. 

[Paul Verhoeven]

Number of likes of adult dramas for this year. I only counted videos with more than 1m of views.

 

 

House of Gucci 320k
Don't Look Up 270k
King Richard 77k
West Side Story 71k
The last duel 61k
Spencer 52k
The Power of the Dog 30k
Nightmare Alley 26k
Locorice  Pizza 11k

[efialtes76]

Very good reviews in France.

[Ozymandias]

 

Really cool BTS video

 

Edit:  Lawd 89% on RT now

Edited October 13, 2021 by Ozymandias

[Valonqar]

Looks absolutely badass and having actors with strong physique and natural aptitude for stunts helps a lot. 

[EmmaPeel]

I can't wait. Look like it's easily Scott's best movie since The Martian. 

[el sid]

On 10/10/2021 at 9:37 PM, Valonqar said:

I think I said it in old pages but medieval genre hasn't been profitable for decades. King Arthur and Robin Hood were the latest bombs. It works when it's mixed with high fantasy (LOTR, GOT) but there's no audience for historical epics set in Middle Ages. Scott's own Kingdom of Heaven was a bomb. The last success was Braveheart in the 90s. 

Ran out of likes again but I think you're absolutely right with the streaming hit and first overlooked film gem.

I think historical epics that are done in a right way and just great films still have good chances, at least WW. Maybe Kingdom of Heaven had not the most attractive story (IMO it was ok but nothing that I have to watch several times). And the two other mentioned films were quite the opposite of "classic" medieval films. Robin Hood mixed several centuries and King Arthur was filmed very "modern" (the cuts etc.).
But I also think that the budgets shouldn't be too high (for sure under 200M, better 150M) to be on the safe side.

[TalismanRing]

On 10/12/2021 at 1:53 PM, Cmasterclay said:

After a rough star in Venice, reviews for this have gotten to be pretty much outstanding. Not at all ruling out an Oscar run if this made any money (which it probably won't).

 

RT (70 reviews)

87%/ 7.3 avg

79%/ 7.1 avg (top critics)

 

It might be the kind of film Oscar likes to award but the reviews so far are quite good, not outstanding.  These are lesser than SC, TSS, Bond and even Candyman has a better top critic score/avg.

 

Green Knight as a comparison

RT (283 reviews)

88%/ 8.0 avg

91%/ 8.2 avg

 

Edited October 13, 2021 by TalismanRing

[Lighthouse]

Lmao this is bombing