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Monday (7/22) Numbers

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5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

No. Mentioned Monday was a holiday for I2 because of Father's Day but Father's Day is always on a Sunday rather than a Monday.

Yeah, its a wash point of data. Fathers day in someways hurts the monday on the sheer % of the drop (the number is still fine / good / normal.) 

Its a useless data point other than to say here is what day #4 was in comparison to something else. 

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16 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

No. Mentioned Monday was a holiday for I2 because of Father's Day but Father's Day is always on a Sunday rather than a Monday.

Ah, OK. My bad. :)

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, narniadis said:

@baumer at best a 50% drop from the weekend minus previews is under 85m (84.3) with how gangbusters the dailies "should" be, I dont understand the setting up for disappointment if it behaves normally for a film this size. 

And the ridiculousness of some already determining a line that is disastrous is down right crazy for a box office forum discussing actual numbers, not hopes and dreams. 

 

This summer has really bugged the crap out of my statistics side as that is seen by a lot here as a negative instead of as the legitimate data we actually have to look at. 

so a 60 % would be normal ? no it wont be, it wont be something disastrous but you cant say to me that it will be good for a summer movie even of this size, no i dont expect a 50% drop from the 192 weekend, however the normal for me in the summer would be around 55 not 61+

Edited by john2000

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4 hours ago, PKMLover said:

Crawl $790,000 (-59.2%/ -41.7%)

Annabelle Comes Home $440,000 (-43.4%/ -43.7%)

 

That week to week hold is decent for Crawl. I wonder if it’ll lose loads of cinemas this weekend though. 

 

Great weekly hold for Annabelle considering it lost 1,000+ locations. 

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18 minutes ago, john2000 said:

so a 60 % would be normal ? no it wont be, it wont be something disastrous but you cant say to me that it will be good for a summer movie even of this size, no i dont expect a 50% drop from the 192 weekend, however the normal for me in the summer would be around 55 not 61+

Exactly! A 60% would be somewhat shocking. A 55% drop would be on par with what we've seen with TS4 and Aladdin and even SLOP2 which had a good hold. So one can only look at other family films this summer to use as a comparison. 55% drop would be slightly bigger drop than the others but TLK also had a much bigger OW. 

 

But I remember similar discussion for TLJ. No way that movie was going to make less than $90 million in its second weekend. Yeah right! Likewise, anything goes and while we can say there's no way TLK can make less than $80 million in its second weekend...baboom! Anything can happen. Just that audiences seem to like TLK MUCH better than they did TLJ.

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1 hour ago, narniadis said:

@baumer at best a 50% drop from the weekend minus previews is under 85m (84.3) with how gangbusters the dailies "should" be, I dont understand the setting up for disappointment if it behaves normally for a film this size. 

And the ridiculousness of some already determining a line that is disastrous is down right crazy for a box office forum discussing actual numbers, not hopes and dreams. 

 

This summer has really bugged the crap out of my statistics side as that is seen by a lot here as a negative instead of as the legitimate data we actually have to look at. 

This.

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1 hour ago, john2000 said:

so a 60 % would be normal ? no it wont be, it wont be something disastrous but you cant say to me that it will be good for a summer movie even of this size, no i dont expect a 50% drop from the 192 weekend, however the normal for me in the summer would be around 55 not 61+

Did I say a 60% drop? You have become quite the aggressive arguement maker. It will probably make between 80 and 85, looking at past actual data. An 80m weekend is right around -58% or normal for a film with both the 23m in previews and the huge opening. A 60% drop is not normal for well received films, but then again the 23m in previews already changes the equation - SOMETHING THAT YALL KEEP IGNORING.  

 

Good grief, when being normal and not calling things on my feelings is the problem. I will be quite happy if it manages a better than expected hold as I am always about championing big box office, but there are damn realities to be expected first before surprises can happen. 

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8 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Did I say a 60% drop? You have become quite the aggressive arguement maker. It will probably make between 80 and 85, looking at past actual data. An 80m weekend is right around -58% or normal for a film with both the 23m in previews and the huge opening. A 60% drop is not normal for well received films, but then again the 23m in previews already changes the equation - SOMETHING THAT YALL KEEP IGNORING.  

 

Good grief, when being normal and not calling things on my feelings is the problem. I will be quite happy if it manages a better than expected hold as I am always about championing big box office, but there are damn realities to be expected first before surprises can happen. 

eh what ? how did i become agressive ? i was just talking about the 75 mill sec weekend that some other user said, wtf are you talking about ? whats your problem ? i didnt say why you believe what you believe chill, if you dont understand what my comments mean then just ask and stop assuming for things i didn mean

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Are we pretending previews don't count in determining the 2nd week drop?

 

60% drop is 76m

 

I don't see that happening. 85ish

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Just now, cdsacken said:

Are we pretending previews don't count in determining the 2nd week drop?

 

60% drop is 76m

 

I don't see that happening. 85ish

yah i was talking about that, i dont understand what @narniadis is talking about

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Toy Story dropped 50%. It will be higher but little competition. Release this week will make 40m max probably and is super violent. Not that much cross over.

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Crawl could pass $30m this weekend then. 

 

It’ll end up being a solid hit actually. 

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If the Lion King drops 55% or 60% this weekend it really doesn't matter. It's got summer weekdays which more than make up for the weekends falling maybe a little bit harder. The Incredibles part 2 fell 58% last year in its second weekend. I see no reason why the lion king would hold better than that.

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Just now, Krissykins said:

Crawl could pass $30m this weekend then. 

 

It’ll end up being a solid hit actually. 

I am banking on crawl getting close to a for multiplier. I think it's definitely a movie that is going to benefit from positive word of mouth.

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The number of 3D IMAX showings for the LK has been dismal. There was only 1 showing a day since Thursday at the local AMC 24 Willowbrook, Regal 19 Tomball (an IMAX theater), and only ONE at the AMC 30 Gulf Pointe. 

 

Endgame had about a dozen showings for IMAX 3D. So for those who said that the $23 million preview was due to the amount of showings, it actually seems to have lost money due to the sparse number of 3D IMAX shows.

 

Not sure how that is translating to the drops, but I don't think we can say that the preview numbers were especially inflated because the number of shows on premium screens certainly was not.

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Posted (edited)

Are you only referring to IMAX 3D shows? Because I see plenty of IMAX 2D showings at my local IMAX theaters (AMC Metreon and Regal Hacienda Crossings, plus the LieMAX at AMC Bay Street) on Fandango and those are premium-priced too. Do the theaters you mentioned have IMAX 2D showings too? And is there really that much a price difference between IMAX 2D and IMAX 3D? I’m checking and all my local theaters only charge $1 more for IMAX 3D than IMAX 2D.

 

3D is on the wane in North America, and IMAX specifically said a couple years ago that they were re-emphasizing 2D due to customer and theater feedback. This isn’t incredibly surprising to me (what is surprising is that Endgame had so many IMAX 3D showings in comparison).

Edited by TServo2049
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Posted (edited)

https://deadline.com/2019/07/the-lion-king-box-office-records-monday-1202651407/

 

 

Disney’s The Lion King chalked up the best Monday in July that Disney has ever seen with $21.6M in early estimates

 

 

This weekend, Lion King will definitely reign again with industry estimates expecting around a -50% decline for a second weekend of $95M

 

 

 Industry projections for Lion King‘s final domestic are between $650M-$700M.

 

(all of this seem very optimistic to me with such minimal info and we all know that we should take this with a HUGE grain of salt, fingers crossed)

 

Edited by john2000

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