Monday (7/22) Numbers

[Cappoedameron]

7 minutes ago, maxalcamo said:

They have only the little Mermaid (but i don't see it big as The beauty and the beast and the lion king but still over a 1B) and Mulan.

Pinocchio, Snow White, Crudelia, The sword in the stone are more likely to make something between Dumbo and Cinderella (350-550M WW). 

I'm sure there's more on the way and will be announced at D23. 

 

You can bet with the money these soulless films make, they're definitely gonna greenlight more films.

Edited July 23, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[wildphantom]

That Favreau Magic Kingdom movie he was going to make at Disney sounded like a lot of fun. basically Jumanji/Night at the Museum in a Disney park - that sounds like a no brainer for them to do at some point. 

[Valonqar]

Favereau is the blandest of the bland. He lucked out with leads such as Ferrell and RDJ who elevated his average movies to above average but not this time as TLK leads are the most panned of the cast. This is going to make over 600M but that doesn't make it less bland and even his cheering squad on RT abandoned him. 

Edited July 23, 2019 by Valonqar

[maxalcamo]

16 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

I'm sure there's more on the way and will be announced at D23. 

 

You can bet with the money these soulless films make, they're definitely gonna greenlight more films.

What i mean it's they already have done the most important films. What they can announce? Bambi?. It will never be big like the remakes of the 90's movies. 

Edited July 23, 2019 by maxalcamo

[cdsacken]

41 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Looking at my 1st local's set this upcoming weekend, I think the rumor of Disney terms being harsh for Lion King is probably true.  Even though TLK never sold out a single showing on the 6 screens last weekend, the theater still has the Lion King set for 6 screens this weekend.  I foresee a lot of empty seats coming...but it means the new opener really didn't get a large set (and now I'm wondering how long these screens need to be held)...and TLK has no excuse to not have a very good hold (could be an ugly box office weekend for year on year comparison if TLK really doesn't hold well)...

I mean considering what's coming out it's easy for the theaters to agree to it

[jedijake]

I would LOVE for one year there be no SW, Marvel, or live-action remakes. Just for one year. And then we will see what happens with movie theaters in general. Sad that those 3 entities are controlling the business.

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I would LOVE for one year there be no SW, Marvel, or live-action remakes. Just for one year. And then we will see what happens with movie theaters in general. Sad that those 3 entities are controlling the business.

You mean that you wish that movie theaters would go out of business?  

[TwoMisfits]

27 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Really not difficult to figure out why it's holding screens with only one new opener projected to open around $40m.   It's PTA would have to drop 90%+ to be as low as what the 3rd highest film of the w/e will be.  It doesn't need to sell out to be more profitable for theaters to keep it as opposed to other films.

 

1	N	The Lion King (2019)	BV	$191,770,759	-	4,725	-	$40,586	$191,770,759	-	1
2	1	Spider-Man: Far from Home	Sony	$21,202,431	-53.3%	4,415	-219	$4,802	$319,861,843	$160	3
3	2	Toy Story 4	BV	$15,551,086	-25.8%	3,750	-460	$4,147	$376,484,435	-	5
4	3	Crawl	Par.	$6,095,561	-49.2%	3,170	-	$1,923	$23,930,371	$13.5	2
5	5	Yesterday	Uni.	$5,020,835	-25.2%	2,662	-93	$1,886	$57,517,300	$26	4
6	4	Stuber	Fox	$4,115,279	-50.0%	3,050	-	$1,349	$16,197,143	-	2
7	6	Aladdin (2019)	BV	$4,085,424	-33.8%	2,105	-452	$1,941	$340,326,138	$183	9
8	7	Annabelle Comes Home	WB (NL)	$2,601,687	-53.7%	1,981	-1,228	$1,313	$66,523,888	-	4
9	8	Midsommar	A24	$1,596,447	-56.5%	1,105	-1,602	$1,445	$22,479,475	-	3
10	9	The Secret Life of Pets 2	Uni.	$1,535,065	-52.1%	1,380	-940	$1,112	$151,556,230	$80	7
11	11	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$1,514,741	-28.0%	985	-458	$1,538	$854,531,934	$356	1

There is no way the PTA of the 10pm showings on TLK (by show) are that good.  It would have been VERY easy to hold both Crawl and Stuber, both late drawing movies, for a 3rd weekend with 10pm showings from TLK.  There is NO WAY the theater will come close to selling out 1 of the 6 10pm or later showings for TLK, let alone all 6.  In fact, they could probably seat all 10pm desiring patrons in one or both of the largest screens and give the other 4 10pms away to the new opener (probably another late drawing crowd) and Crawl/Stuber...but Disney probably didn't let that happen on the contract (at least for weekend #2)...

[jedijake]

1 hour ago, Cappoedameron said:

Who the hell cares? It's gonna make over a billion, Disney sure doesn't.

People on a box office forum. At least you'd assume that is why they are here, otherwise they shouldn't be (unless they're trolling).

 

 

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, Cappoedameron said:

Who the hell cares? It's gonna make over a billion, Disney sure doesn't.

I disagree, I think Disney care a lot about audience loving their product and not just how much their franchise do in their first weeks at the box office.

 

In fiscal year ending 2018 4.3 billion of Disney revenue were from theatrical distribution or their 59 billions revenues. Specially for something like Lion Kings that was making billions over billions outside theater since its/ release, how much it did help (or hurt) the brand and how much revenues Lion Kings brand will make in the next 25 year's is an important part of the equation.

[Sindreee]

33 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Favereau is the blandest of the bland. He lucked out with leads such as Ferrell and RDJ who elevated his average movies to above average but not this time as TLK leads are the most panned of the cast. This is going to make over 600M but that doesn't make it less bland and even his cheering squad on RT abandoned him. 

Chef had all the flavours, bitter, sour, salty, sweet and even umami.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

There is no way the PTA of the 10pm showings on TLK (by show) are that good.  It would have been VERY easy to hold both Crawl and Stuber, both late drawing movies, for a 3rd weekend with 10pm showings from TLK.  There is NO WAY the theater will come close to selling out 1 of the 6 10pm or later showings for TLK, let alone all 6.  In fact, they could probably seat all 10pm desiring patrons in one or both of the largest screens and give the other 4 10pms away to the new opener (probably another late drawing crowd) and Crawl/Stuber...but Disney probably didn't let that happen on the contract (at least for weekend #2)...

Stuber and Crawl had sub 2000k PTAs with over 3k theaters.  Stuber is sub $1400.  It's lower than AEG which is averaging 1-2 shows per theater instead of 5 or 6.   That's this w/e.  

 

Blockbusters don't even get to hold  onto 3K theaters when their PTA are that low.    AEG PTA was $2,570k when it was dropped from 1,450 (less than half of what these movies are at) theaters to 985.

 

Next w/e would be another 40-50% drop in PTA if they kept all those theaters. 

 

You think there's a LK screen in that complex this upcoming w/e that is going to avg just over $1k for the w/e?    That's going to avg about  $350 a day or $70 per showing or average 9 tickets a show?  

Oh and Stuber - that's Fox,  ergo Disney is distributing it. 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2019 by TalismanRing

[jedijake]

21 minutes ago, Zatt was right said:

You mean that you wish that movie theaters would go out of business?  

LOL-yeah that would actually be the case. No, of course it was sarcastic way of saying "for those complaining of the Disney domination, I'd love to see your reaction if Disney took a year off". 

 

 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

Favereau is the blandest of the bland. He lucked out with leads such as Ferrell and RDJ who elevated his average movies to above average but not this time as TLK leads are the most panned of the cast. This is going to make over 600M but that doesn't make it less bland and even his cheering squad on RT abandoned him. 

Not really luck for RDJ when he was the who fought for him the most when many at Marvel were hesitant. 

[TwoMisfits]

41 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Stuber and Crawl had sub 2000k PTAs with over 3k theaters.  Stuber is sub $1400.  It's lower than AEG which is averaging 1-2 shows per theater instead of 5 or 6.   That's this w/e.  

 

Blockbusters don't even get to hold  onto 3K theaters when it's PTA are that low.    AEG PTA was $2,570k when it was dropped from 1,450 (less than half of what these movies are at) theaters to 985.

 

Next w/e would be another 40-50% drop in PTA if they kept all those theaters. 

 

You think there's a LK screen in that complex this upcoming w/e that is going to avg just over $1k for the w/e?    That's going to avg about  $350 a day or $70 per showing or average 9 tickets a show?  

Oh and Stuber - that's Fox,  ergo Disney is distributing it. 

 

 

I think a few of those 10pms will average 9 tickets or less for TLK...yes...

 

And if Crawl and Stuber only had 1 showing each, you'd get their viewers consolidated to a show, and certainly sell more than 9 tickets to a late show...

 

And it's not just those movies...literally, if you want to see a movie at the 12, you have only 6 options this weekend...and only 1 non-Disney US option (if you put Spidey with Disney) and 1 foreign option...and those non-Disney options are only b/c those 2 movies are opening this week...how on Earth did every other studio let that happen?  Why do they not push back on the theaters themselves?

[meriodejaneiro]

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Lion King can get to 600M, 620M, 640M, no problem. However it mustnt pass 652M.

In fact i want TLK to go over 660M. I hope it keeps its way ahead of I2 #s to at least have a shot at it.

[Legion Again]

3 hours ago, Brainbug said:

Lion King can get to 600M, 620M, 640M, no problem. However it mustnt pass 652M.

Let’s try to keep things below 624M 😛 

[JB33]

38 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I think a few of those 10pms will average 9 tickets or less for TLK...yes...

 

And if Crawl and Stuber only had 1 showing each, you'd get their viewers consolidated to a show, and certainly sell more than 9 tickets to a late show...

 

And it's not just those movies...literally, if you want to see a movie at the 12, you have only 6 options this weekend...and only 1 non-Disney US option (if you put Spidey with Disney) and 1 foreign option...and those non-Disney options are only b/c those 2 movies are opening this week...how on Earth did every other studio let that happen?  Why do they not push back on the theaters themselves?

I think because they just know their offerings don't hold a candle to Disney's offerings at the moment.

[Taruseth]

Why is everyone suddenly talking about 650M for TLK, did you see another Monday number???

AFAIK remember yesterday people were thinking more along the lines of 550M and unless the weekdays and especially the 2nd weekend are great I don't think we should start thinking about 600+M for TLK.

[jedijake]

16 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

Why is everyone suddenly talking about 650M for TLK, did you see another Monday number???

AFAIK remember yesterday people were thinking more along the lines of 550M and unless the weekdays and especially the 2nd weekend are great I don't think we should start thinking about 600+M for TLK.

It only needs a 3.13x to reach $600 million. The Monday number nowhere near suggests that won't happen.

 

Conversely, $550 m would mean a 2.86x. Nothing about Monday's # suggests the multiplier will be that low. The 2nd weekend can be just "ok" (whatever that means) and $600 m could still be safe.  A 60% drop next weekend would put $600 m in deep question. From there it would really have to level off to sub-50% drops each week (with several sub-40% or sub-30%drops here and there) to reach $600m.

Edited July 23, 2019 by jedijake