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Charlie Jatinder

Thursday Numbers - (7/25)

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Just now, Valonqar said:

Considering how under-promoted and basically dumped by its studio Crawl was, it's definitely overperforming. Nice weekday holds, low theater loss, hopefully soft drop this weekend. :bravo:

It’s performing a lot better than other films that had more marketing but had a goofy plot. 

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There are three theaters in the city I'm in right now, which is London (2 hours west of Toronto) in Canada. Granted there's only 400,000 people here but all six showings to once upon a Time in America were sold out last night. I think we're going to be in for a pretty decent preview number.

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19 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

It’s performing a lot better than other films that had more marketing but had a goofy plot. 

Indeed! :)

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12 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

so TLK 2nd weekend under BatB's? :thinking:

 

 

Under $90M?  I'd say that's likely...but it is a spring movie vs a summer one, so better weekend holds in spring since weekdays are so light...I mean, Beauty was at $319M after that 2nd weekend...even if TLK comes in at $70M, it would be at $345M after 2nd weekend, so it would have extended its 1st weekend BO lead, even coming in $20M lower on a 2nd weekend (if that happens)...

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15 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

so TLK 2nd weekend under BatB's? :thinking:

 

 

Was always going to be - difference in how the seasons playout. 

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1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

Under $90M?  I'd say that's likely...but it is a spring movie vs a summer one, so better weekend holds in spring since weekdays are so light...I mean, Beauty was at $319M after that 2nd weekend...even if TLK comes in at $70M, it would be at $345M after 2nd weekend, so it would have extended its 1st weekend BO lead, even coming in $20M lower on a 2nd weekend (if that happens)...

Out of reactions but 100% this. Added by TLK having larger previews also. 

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Meh for Lion King. Gimme 74 for this weekend

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22 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

so TLK 2nd weekend under BatB's? :thinking:

 

 

Of course. Summer days vs Spring days. TLK M-Th $83.5m while BATB only $53.9m. Audience share on the weekend is higher outside of summer/Christmas.

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Thanks for the numbers Charlie.

 

So a 60% drop for TLK is possible, but more likely 58-59%. I move from predicting $630-$650 million for TLK to ending up neck-and-neck with Incredibles 2. $605-$610 million IF TLK ends up less than $80 million this weekend. If the number ends up closer to $75 million it will struggle to reach $600 million. 

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Posted (edited)

I'm thinking low 600s, could he lower or could be 650. Long way to go.

Edited by cdsacken
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Posted (edited)

many of the low-ballers were inside this club and it's unfortunately going down Monday-tuesday as the lion king is running at a pace I didn't even see it coming.  TLK will cross 1.1B in only 10 days of it's release:ohmygod::ohmyzod:

 

 

@narniadis, @TwoMisfits and trolls like @cannastop

 

It's over guys 

68747470733a2f2f73332e616d617a6f6e617773

 

Give it a rest

 

Also honorable shout out to baumer... 

 

tenor.0.gif

 

 

 

 

Edited by Geo1500
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Posted (edited)

Well based on those numbers I can definitely tell you it's not going to do the numbers Deadline was pitching a couple days ago (90+).

 

Was hoping for 85 this weekend but I was also ready for 75, it is what it is, it will make the difference with weekdays. Next week will give us a much better picture regarding Lion King's legs.

 

Toy Story 4 still over Toy Story 3 and Far From Home still just below Homecoming (but not by much) and Endgame, no idea what that's all about but I'm pretty certain Disney are going for that sweet round 2.8er.

 

Oh and Aladdin being Aladdin once again. Did it make it already to 1 billion or is it this weekend? It's possible it could have made it yesterday, but it could also just as well be today. I wasn't ready many trades yesterday and today, anyone have any idea if it did it? (I know Spider-Man did it, that one I got as it was everywhere)

Edited by AlexMA

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28 minutes ago, AlexMA said:

Well based on those numbers I can definitely tell you it's not going to do the numbers Deadline was pitching a couple days ago (90+).

 

Was hoping for 85 this weekend but I was also ready for 75, it is what it is, it will make the difference with weekdays. Next week will give us a much better picture regarding Lion King's legs.

 

Toy Story 4 still over Toy Story 3 and Far From Home still just below Homecoming (but not by much) and Endgame, no idea what that's all about but I'm pretty certain Disney are going for that sweet round 2.8er.

 

Oh and Aladdin being Aladdin once again. Did it make it already to 1 billion or is it this weekend? It's possible it could have made it yesterday, but it could also just as well be today. I wasn't ready many trades yesterday and today, anyone have any idea if it did it? (I know Spider-Man did it, that one I got as it was everywhere)

Aladdin may already  be there, right? I mean, international numbers haven't been tallied each day. Only the domestic. So the additional numbers added to Aladdin's WW are only coming from domestic until the weekend when they report the overseas numbers. So it could potentially already be there.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Aladdin may already  be there, right? I mean, international numbers haven't been tallied each day. Only the domestic. So the additional numbers added to Aladdin's WW are only coming from domestic until the weekend when they report the overseas numbers. So it could potentially already be there.

That's what I was thinking, it might already be there, either got there yesterday or today. And with Lion King and Toy Story 4 following very soon (the first obviously quite a bit sooner) that's 5 out of their 7 total 2019 releases over $1 billion worldwide. Not gonna check, but I'm pretty sure that's a record. Oh and one of the two that won't make it to $1 billion is a documentary (Penguins) while the other is Dumbo.

 

They have THREE, yes, that's right, just 3 more movies left to release this year, Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Frozen 2 and Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. Two of those are guaranteed to also score over $1 billion worldwide, so that will be 7 out of 10 releases over $1 billion each. As for the other, well unless Maleficent 2 is some kind of masterpiece with incredible WoM you know that's doing Dumbo numbers.

 

Mickey Mouse is pretty much DESTROYING the competition this year at the box office with just 10 things they're putting out in theaters, that's half or even less than the competition while making probably twice as much from ticket sales. How the hell did we get here?

Edited by AlexMA

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3 hours ago, HeatSeeker said:

12th straight day of TS4 beating TS3.  Should also have a higher weekend.  

 

Endgame holding on strong.  Coming for $860m DOM / $2.8b WW.

It needs good OS hold for 2.8 billion

Wish it happens.

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15 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

Damn I just realized BaTB opened to 174M. How the hell did that happen

 

A lot of people went to see it.

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