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Weekend Thread: Top 5 Actuals- The Lion King $76.62M | OUATIH $41.08M | SM: FFH $12.45M | TS3 $10.45M | CRAWL $4.06M

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3 hours ago, maxalcamo said:

Everyone always talk of how many billions movies disney has when all their releases this year have a cost than not less than 300M between budget and obligated massive promotional costs cause bigger the budget bigger the cost of promotion to make money.

 

If we only see how many 1 billions  movie a studio has there is no competion, if we see the biggest  5 movies of the year they all disney but the fact is they all need to do 300M more in the us to be a success. Some of the other studios has different strategies than only big 1 B movies.

Bohemian Raphsody did less than captain marvel but it's a bigger success. In 2018 Warner got a star is born with 434M dollar on a 39M budget, Crazy asians with 238M on a 30M bufget, the nun with 365M on a 22M budget etc.. Of course they didn't beat any 300M dollars disney movie (or every disney movie should be a big flop) but they are huge financial success too.

 

Billions dollar movie almost always cost a lot, if they are not franchise giant budget affair they were usually involving still some IP rights (a la Bohemian Rhapsody) or were made by big name producer-director-writer-actor with large participation bonus (the Cameron-Nolans-James Wan, etc...).

 

And promotion do tend to follow budget but it is usually far from linear, any billion dollar movie will end up having had a giant world marketing spending on it. I.E. a $300M budget movie release will not necessarily cost 6 times has much has a $50M budget one, the bigger budget one do tend to get much more product placement opportunities for example.

 

To go concrete,

Captain Phillips

Net Budget: $59.773M

world theatrical releasing spending: $98.88M

 

The same year

After Earth

Net Budget: $147.797M

world theatrical releasing spending: $103.4M

 

How much the studio believe in the movie and push it, for how long and how large it play, etc... determine a lot of the cost not just the budget, one difference it is much harder to dump a large title, but if a small title make a huge amount, usually it had a lot of releasing power.

 

Taking Your Star is born/Bohemian Rhapsody example according to deadline estimate, WW P&A around $110M:

https://deadline.com/2019/03/a-star-is-born-box-office-profit-2018-1202580798/

https://deadline.com/2019/04/bohemian-rhapsody-box-office-profit-2018-freddie-mercury-queen-rami-malek-1202586151/

 

That significantly less than the $150M a Disney tentpole is estimated to get (the promos are more than twice has big, but they have a lot of partner, start already with giant awareness before the first dollar is spent and maybe deadline underestimate but still, give an idea):

https://deadline.com/2019/04/incredibles-2-box-office-profits-1202586957/

https://deadline.com/2019/04/black-panther-goes-from-tentpole-to-cultural-milestone-no-2-in-2018-most-valuable-blockbuster-tournament-1202587563/

 

But a difference than the first $100M more at the BO comfortably more than take care of.

 

 

Disney Studio Entertainment margin of profit it's last few year's have been absolutely ridiculous, without even taking into account their impact on the park&resort, Media networks, consumer products.

 

https://www.thewaltdisneycompany.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/2018-Annual-Report.pdf

Studio Entertainment

  Revenues Spending Operating income Income % of Revenues Income in % of spending
Disney - 2017 $8,379 $6,024 $2,355 28% 39%
Disney - 2018 $9,987 $7,007 $2,980 30% 43%

 

Before that, Rothman-Gianopulos run at Fox (from Titanic to Avatar) was said to be the best profits margin pretty much ever, often achieving high 1x% I think.

Edited by Barnack
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4 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Before that, Rothman-Gianopulos run at Fox (from Titanic to Avatar) was said to be the best profits margin pretty much ever, often achieving high 1x%

Agree, there are lots of years / distributor combis that ran with ~ 3% +/- too.

Or even went into the reds, especially of an expensive movie bombed

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When I got out of Lion King opening night I honestly thought $700 million was on the cards.  Even though I wasn’t fussed I could tell my audience ate it up.

But like I said earlier today, it has that one and done feel about it.  Repeat viewings are what get the majors to dine with the gods. For most people their first time seeing TLK 2019 will feel like their 20th time. 

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if @baumer or anyone else is going to seriously try to argue that the Lion King is less popular than Beauty and the Beast then they are ill in the head...

 

You can argue all sorts of things about the new adaptations but you are crazy if you think BATB is a more popular or fondly treated than Lion King.

 

The Lion King is the most beloved Disney animated film currently.

 

 

In my opinion -- The fact that BATB is not as beloved is exactly WHY it is able to do better than lion king. Because people were not holding it to some golden standard that it would never reach.

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Just now, Avatree said:

if @baumer or anyone else is going to seriously try to argue that the Lion King is less popular than Beauty and the Beast then they are ill in the head...

 

You can argue all sorts of things about the new adaptations but you are crazy if you think BATB is a more popular or fondly treated than Lion King.

 

The Lion King is the most beloved Disney animated film currently.

 

 

In my opinion -- The fact that BATB is not as beloved is exactly WHY it is able to do better than lion king. Because people were not holding it to some golden standard that it would never reach.

 

If Avatree or anyone else is going to tell anyone else that they are sick in the head, then that is rich coming from you.  :rofl:

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4 minutes ago, Avatree said:

In my opinion -- The fact that BATB is not as beloved is exactly WHY it is able to do better than lion king. Because people were not holding it to some golden standard that it would never reach.

Really not sure to follow here, it is there a under 504M dbo, under 1.26b WW prediction going on for Lion Kings ?

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48 minutes ago, baumer said:

And why does everyone assume that TLK is more popular or has more fans that Beauty and  the Beast?  BatB has been around for 70 years.  

? Is it really an assumption by now ?

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?view=daily&id=bbjunglealice.htm

 

Why did a significantly worst received movie out opened it, if it was not more popular ?

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Just now, Barnack said:

Really not sure to follow here, it is there a under 504M dbo, under 1.26b WW prediction going on for Lion Kings ?

I've no idea whether it will hit 504M or not, but I think you have missed my point: the reason that it is "underperforming" because expectations were way higher than they were for BATB, because it is so beloved. I am just responding to Baumer's claim that BATB is doing better than Lion King because the fanbase is bigger. Which is just crazy talk lol.

 

6 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

If Avatree or anyone else is going to tell anyone else that they are sick in the head, then that is rich coming from you.  :rofl:

I walked into that one lol. Just joking mate. I think it is an objective fact that Lion King is more well loved and more fans than Beauty and the Beast.

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4 minutes ago, Avatree said:

if @baumer or anyone else is going to seriously try to argue that ....

 

Funny detail about assumptions and such... so just in case you think otherwise / serious:

I don't watch animated nor remakes from animated, also 99%+ of all the musical I'll pass on

= even per TV.....

 

I follow ww BO, but never even look into details if its animated based and others = I have no opinion about what's more beloved and whatnot, I do not care.

I do care about balanced reporting and reactions, I do not care about overreactions and worse

This weekend seem sadly to be another one with over the top reactions by some

Happily some at least are here that show balanced reactions too 😉

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

According to many playing with the 3B mark:

 

 

 

Yeaaaah, not going to trawl that thread to see just how many of them actually predicted 3b's WW or close to it in there.

 

Summer Game and @ElsaRoc's ranking thread is good enough for me.

 

====

 

Also I think the lack of IN's for a certain TLK club that predicted just north of 2b, never mind 3b, says to me that it was at most a very loud vocal minority that ever thought that was even possibly on the cards.

Edited by Porthos
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