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Heretic

UK Box Office Thread

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This drop means nothing

We should probably face the fact that AVATAR doing not great here

I don’t expect any great leggy run here after I seeing the horrible opening,not even think a moment before that UK opening even less than India,it’s disappointed,just like Japan

Edited by Bruce
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26 minutes ago, Bruce said:

This drop means nothing

We should probably face the fact that AVATAR doing not great here

I don’t expect any great leggy run here after I seeing the horrible opening,not even think a moment before that UK opening even less than India,it’s disappointed,just like Japan

 

It should still be able to get into the $55-70M range. That's not amazing but it's far better than what Japan will do. 

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Just 1-1.1M admits. Awful weekend. Hopefully can gets some super legs to a face saving 6-7M final number.

In comparison other Big 5

France - 1.7M 5-days, real value without France in WC final and semis around 2M
Germany - 1.35M 5-days, 1.18M 4-days weekend

Italy - 1.14M 5-days, 970K 4-days weekend
Spain - 0.97M 3 days

Generally UK would be double of Italy and 40-50% higher than France. Comparable UK performance would be around 2M weekend admits.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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16 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Just 1-1.1M admits. Awful weekend. Hopefully can gets some super legs to a face saving 6-7M final number.

In comparison other Big 5

France - 1.7M 5-days, real value without France in WC final and semis around 2M
Germany - 1.35M 5-days, 1.18M 4-days weekend

Italy - 1.14M 5-days, 970K 4-days weekend
Spain - 0.97M 3 days

Generally UK would be double of Italy and 40-50% higher than France. Comparable UK performance would be around 2M weekend admits.

So you think this was going to open with £22m+?  🤣

 

Under no circumstances would that ever have happened, and only a few films (Avengers, Potter, SW, Bond) have ever had a £20m 3 day opening. Avatar does not have anywhere near the same fan rush.

 

While this opening is unspectacular and probably a little underwhelming, it is not awful.

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Also while Avatar was huge here, it was relatively more popular in other European countries (ie France and Germany were bigger than UK which is very rare for most blockbusters, with even Spain and Italy around $100m mark) so standard extrapolation cannot be applied here.

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7 minutes ago, Heretic said:

Also while Avatar was huge here, it was relatively more popular in other European countries (ie France and Germany were bigger than UK which is very rare for most blockbusters, with even Spain and Italy around $100m mark) so standard extrapolation cannot be applied here.

Avatar 1 shatters all time record in UK but not in France and Germany

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16 minutes ago, Heretic said:

So you think this was going to open with £22m+?

Was thinking around 16-17M with SUN dropping big due to WC final, which in the end it didn't, so around 18-19M.

 

8 minutes ago, Heretic said:

Also while Avatar was huge here, it was relatively more popular in other European countries (ie France and Germany were bigger than UK which is very rare for most blockbusters, with even Spain and Italy around $100m mark) so standard extrapolation cannot be applied here.

Ok this is fair point. Spain and Italy admits for A2 are similar to A1, France would have been +12-15%, Germany is +30%. UK A1 admits would be 1.05M, so A2 is similar. 

 

So UK faired similar to Spain and Italy while France and Germany improved.

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1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Was thinking around 16-17M with SUN dropping big due to WC final, which in the end it didn't, so around 18-19M.

 

Ok this is fair point. Spain and Italy admits for A2 are similar to A1, France would have been +12-15%, Germany is +30%. UK A1 admits would be 1.05M, so A2 is similar. 

 

So UK faired similar to Spain and Italy while France and Germany improved.

Italian market feels like it has shrunk much more to me though for example. If this film does, say, 40M+ final in Italy, which feels realistic to me, it would be the first hollywood film to do so since...well, Avatar. UK going 60-70M would be nowhere near as impressive.

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8 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Was thinking around 16-17M with SUN dropping big due to WC final, which in the end it didn't, so around 18-19M.

 

Ok this is fair point. Spain and Italy admits for A2 are similar to A1, France would have been +12-15%, Germany is +30%. UK A1 admits would be 1.05M, so A2 is similar. 

 

So UK faired similar to Spain and Italy while France and Germany improved.

What would be interesting is to see what drops will be in local currency for end gross for all markets, as that removes currency complications also for comparison purposes.

 

UK I think is looking at ~40% drop from Avatar in pounds, but potentially 55%+ in $. But we’ll have to wait and see how strong legs are. Could even be higher.

 

 

Edited by Heretic
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3 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Italian market feels like it has shrunk much more to me though for example. If this film does, say, 40M+ final in Italy, which feels realistic to me, it would be the first hollywood film to do so since...well, Avatar. UK going 60-70M would be nowhere near as impressive.

This is also a good point and shows that there are many considerations to be taken into account, including the post covid impact on cinema going , and market shift to streaming which was almost non existent in Avatar’s time.

 

Even in the UK this is relevant. Although we have seen some huge grosses post-covid here, it is mostly reserved for massive fan driven films like NWH, nostalgia driven films like Top Gun, and Bond which is a national treasure here. More ‘ standard’ films I think are increasingly struggling to make their mark.

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30 minutes ago, Bruce said:

Avatar 1 shatters all time record in UK but not in France and Germany

 

 

Am I right in recalling though that in $ Avatar came out at a time of a ridiculous $/£ exchange rate?

 

I mean the difference between the mid 2000s and now is enormous. Surely theres's no way a movie now can make in $ conversion what it would have done in 2004-2010.

 

I may be completely wrong.

 

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