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Heretic

UK Box Office Thread

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58 minutes ago, john2000 said:

yep, are you suprised ?

With covid and first reactions not incredible, I expected more has something around 17M-18M£ OW, but so much the better for the cinema and for the box office.

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31 minutes ago, PhilipJ2001 said:

bond is just a phenomenon in the UK. this has benefitted from schedules being the clearest they've ever been. there's literally zero competition for 2 weeks

It hasn’t benefited from that just yet as it hasn’t happened. Shang-Chi just benefited for 4 weekends with very little competition, the same as it’s American run. 

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Average numbers. Just 40 Per show average compared to probably 100 of EG and 85 of Spectre.

However few other information:
1.62M final pre-sales. +12% Spectre. Par Skyfall. 70% of Endgame.

 

So likley FSS can do better.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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4 hours ago, Krissykins said:

It hasn’t benefited from that just yet as it hasn’t happened. Shang-Chi just benefited for 4 weekends with very little competition, the same as it’s American run. 

Imagine Bond having 4 weekends to itself in the UK.

 

People don't know how lucky Shang Chi is in many markets.. studios will die to have a 4 week open field. Bond with Shang Chi's release date would have doubled it worldwide IMO.

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2 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Imagine Bond having 4 weekends to itself in the UK.

 

People don't know how lucky Shang Chi is in many markets.. studios will die to have a 4 week open field. Bond with Shang Chi's release date would have doubled it worldwide IMO.

Slow down there 😛 IIRC, Spectre had 20 days to itself in UK.

 

Shang Chi may be added 5% due to lower competition than normal, with $75M opening weekend, it wasn't missing $220M in USA, will now do what? $230M?

Same for UK, with $7.9M OW, it would have done $30M, as compared to $31M now.

 

NTTD in same markets as SC would still do double of SC in INT markets but that's because the core SC markets are still shut while NTTD core markets are in better shape. In absolute normalcy, SC probably would have done $450M INT vs $600M for NTTD.

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2 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Slow down there 😛 IIRC, Spectre had 20 days to itself in UK.

 

Shang Chi may be added 5% due to lower competition than normal, with $75M opening weekend, it wasn't missing $220M in USA, will now do what? $230M?

Same for UK, with $7.9M OW, it would have done $30M, as compared to $31M now.

 

NTTD in same markets as SC would still do double of SC in INT markets but that's because the core SC markets are still shut while NTTD core markets are in better shape. In absolute normalcy, SC probably would have done $450M INT vs $600M for NTTD.

I think the impact of no competition is much bigger than that.

 

I mean I was comparing to when Venom had Sep 24 release date domestically and 16 Sep internationally. GA doesn't know the difference between MCU and Sony Marvel films, and as you know the hype for Venom 2 in many markets is quite insane. 

 

Imagine it only had 2 weeks to itself before Venom 2 arrives internationally. I would argue that 400m worldwide final would have been a toss-up for Shang Chi if Sony didn't panic and kept changing dates. 😅 but now SC will almost certainly hit at least 430m worldwide.

 

With Bond, i do think 700m - 800m worldwide including China is gonna happen. The release date isn't bad just not as good as SC IMO. Just in Asia hubs - WoM in HK , Taiwan and Singapore from yesterday is very good - much better than SC i would say but it has Venom in 2 weeks (plus i told you about the COVID situation here in Singapore).

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4 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

I think the impact of no competition is much bigger than that.

Well I have shown with numbers. If you can prove that SC can do say $250M in USA than $225M it would have done in normal times, be my guest.

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5 hours ago, Bruce said:

With the good preview I can still perdoct Bond will break over £100m

Nah, that is very unlikely. Opening in the low to mid 20s will probably see it rack up £70-80m depending on legs. It’s not going to pull a Skyfall. 

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7 hours ago, Heretic said:

Nah, that is very unlikely. Opening in the low to mid 20s will probably see it rack up £70-80m depending on legs. It’s not going to pull a Skyfall. 

In a normal FSS opening I think Spectre would have done 24M, so around 4x legs as against 5x of Skyfall.

NTTD 1.62M admits pre-sales are big but THU suggests just around 15M FSS and 20M 4 days. I guess around 60-65M is probable target in that case (?)

 

Edit: I think 1.62M is incl THU numbers.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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35 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

In a normal FSS opening I think Spectre would have done 24M, so around 4x legs as against 5x of Skyfall.

NTTD 1.62M admits pre-sales are big but THU suggests just around 15M FSS and 20M 4 days. I guess around 60-65M is probable target in that case (?)

 

 

It’s impossible to say at this point. Will have to see how the weekend plays out, and also next weekend. It seems there is a bit of divisiveness also, although the impact of this Bond I think will be less then other films. 
 

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27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Wait. Did Universal gave $6.2-6.7M number or someone else did? Why will Universal give a range of number and not a direct number.

Must be an estimate based on extrapolation as the number was released before 9pm, we should hopefully get actuals today. 

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