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Eric Atreides

Weekend Thread - Actuals: H&S 25.3, Scary Stories 20.9, TLK 20.2, Dora 17.4, OUATIH 11.6, Racing in Rain 8.1, Kitchen 5.5

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22 minutes ago, CJohn said:

@MCKillswitch123 Game over, Cameron.

 

https://www.ica-ip.pt/fotos/downloads/ranking_fds_08_a_11_agosto_2019_243455d5182bf216b3.pdf

 

I feel like FF is performing at peak of possibilities considering it is not playing on NOS Cinemas. The 11 days total is probably what the actual OW would have been. What a bizarre turn of events.

 

Insane and shocking opening for French comedy Ibiza. The biggest ever actually. Lets see if it has legs to top the biggest French comedy ever here (Intouchables, obviously). 

 

The fucking shitty ass Lion King remake (yeah, I saw it today, it sucked) is going over Avatar. F&F is performing at peak level for a film that wasn't even released in the country's marquee theater chain. French comedies are blowing up tenfold (they have since The Intouchables and A Gaiola Dourada, tbh). TVI is imploding.

 

The fuck is going on here....

Edited by MCKillswitch123
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13 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Captain Marvel had 420m at week 9 with similar 4.2m weekend. And TS4 is at 419.7m at week 8 with 4.5m weekend. This race is tight but I think TS4 is going to win it with 427m-429m, with no major release until IT2. 

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21 minutes ago, JB33 said:

About a million over what I had it pegged at so it dropped a little better than I thought. Hope it holds well throughout the rest of August and into September. The rest of August is barren in terms of anything resembling interesting options and September is barren in terms of sheer choices (6 wide releases total). There's room for this thing to overperform domestically.

It could do more than 161m total, maybe closer to 165m to 170m. Straight Outta Compton did 26m 2nd weekend and it also had no major film to worry about similar to H&S. SOC had a free run too until Hotel Transylvania 2 release. I think that H&S will have better legs. 

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8 minutes ago, tawasal said:

Captain Marvel had 420m at week 9 with similar 4.2m weekend. And TS4 is at 419.7m at week 8 with 4.5m weekend. This race is tight but I think TS4 is going to win it with 427m-429m, with no major release until IT2. 

CM saw harsh drops after its 9th weekend as the Endgame boost wore off and more competition showed up. TS4 still has a few more weeks of weak competition and Labor Day boost ahead of itself.

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Just now, cookie said:

CM’s 9th weekend was in the last stretches of its Endgame boost, as evidenced by subsequent drops. TS4 has several more empty weeks and Labor Day boost ahead of itself.

Is Labor Day boost certain though, as Disney have so many movies in release at the same time unlike anytime before. 

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6 minutes ago, tawasal said:

Is Labor Day boost certain though, as Disney have so many movies in release at the same time unlike anytime before. 

Every Summer Pixar film since TS3 has gotten a significant LD boost. TLK I think will still be making enough by then to hold on its own, and Aladdin will already be out on digital.

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4 minutes ago, cookie said:

Every Summer Pixar film since TS3 has gotten a significant LD boost. TLK I think will still be making enough by then to hold on its own.

I know that Pixar movies always get the boost, but they also have TLK, which I think they could aim to get over TDK if it doesn't get over by itself. 

 

Edit: also forgot they have Aladdin too. 

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13 minutes ago, tawasal said:

I know that Pixar movies always get the boost, but they also have TLK, which I think they could aim to get over TDK if it doesn't get over by itself. 

 

Edit: also forgot they have Aladdin too. 

If Disney cared about making more than X movie (when it's not Endgame passing Avatar) they'd have pushed Rogue One over TDK. Aladdin will be out on digital before LD.

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22 minutes ago, tawasal said:

Captain Marvel had 420m at week 9 with similar 4.2m weekend. And TS4 is at 419.7m at week 8 with 4.5m weekend. This race is tight but I think TS4 is going to win it with 427m-429m, with no major release until IT2. 

 

7 minutes ago, tawasal said:

I know that Pixar movies always get the boost, but they also have TLK, which I think they could aim to get over TDK if it doesn't get over by itself. 

 

Edit: also forgot they have Aladdin too. 

TS4 might end up making 440M. It's currently 20M+ ahead of TS3 at the same point, and TS3 ended with 415M. 

 

By LD weekend, Aladdin might be totally done and no milestone reachable, neither dom (400) nor ww (1100).

 

TS4 might be on the same position as Aladdin, with no milestone reachable neither dom (450 seems too far even with a LD expansion) or ww (1100). 

 

I keep thinking TLK could be the chosen one for the LD expansion, since it seems to be suffering to even reach 550M dom, so that might be the push for late legs needed to reach that mark.

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37 minutes ago, tawasal said:

Captain Marvel had 420m at week 9 with similar 4.2m weekend. And TS4 is at 419.7m at week 8 with 4.5m weekend. This race is tight but I think TS4 is going to win it with 427m-429m, with no major release until IT2. 

TS4 will easily win with 440+ 🤣

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Stamina updates on the Top domestic movies >$200M (2015-2019):

 

Spoiler
Top 10 Highest Domestic Grossing
Movie >$200M (2015 – 2019)
90% of
Gross
on Day
Multiplier
(DG ÷ FW)
Domestic
Gross
First
Weekend
Release
Month
Rank
The Lion King* 17 2.47 $473.3M $191.8M Jul. #2 (2019)
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 18 1.99 $330.4M $166.0M Mar. #8 (2016)
Justice League 23 2.44 $229.0M $93.8M Nov. #10 (2017)
Captain America: Civil War 23 2.28 $408.1M $179.1M May #3 (2016)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi 23 2.82 $620.2M $220.0M Dec. #1 (2017)
Furious 7 24 2.40 $353.0M $147.2M Apr. #5 (2015)
Spider-Man: Far From Home* 25 4.01 $371.0M $92.6M Jul. #5 (2019)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 25 3.43 $532.2M $155.1M Dec. #1 (2016)
Avengers: Endgame* 25 2.40 $857.9M $357.1M Apr. #1 (2019)
Avengers: Age of Ultron 26 2.40 $459.0M $191.3M May #3 (2015)
It 28 2.65 $327.5M $123.4M Sep. #7 (2017)
Spectre 29 2.84 $200.1M $70.4M Nov. #10 (2015)
Thor: Ragnarok 29 2.57 $315.1M $122.7M Nov. #8 (2017)
Deadpool 2 29 2.54 $318.5M $125.5M May #6 (2018)
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 29 2.82 $417.7M $148.0M Jun. #4 (2018)
Finding Dory 29 3.60 $486.3M $135.1M Jun. #2 (2016)
Suicide Squad 30 2.43 $325.1M $133.7M Aug. #9 (2016)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 30 2.66 $389.8M $146.5M May #5 (2017)
Avengers: Infinity War 30 2.63 $678.8M $257.7M Apr. #2 (2018)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 30 3.78 $936.7M $248.0M Dec. #1 (2015)
Ant-Man and the Wasp 31 2.86 $216.6M $75.8M Jul. #9 (2018)
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – P2 31 2.74 $281.7M $102.7M Nov. #7 (2015)
Aquaman 31 4.94 $335.1M $67.9M Dec. #5 (2018)
Minions 31 2.90 $336.0M $115.7M Jul. #6 (2015)
Deadpool 31 2.74 $363.1M $132.4M Feb. #6 (2016)
Beauty and the Beast 31 2.88 $504.0M $174.8M Mar. #2 (2017)
Jurassic World 31 3.12 $652.3M $208.8M Jun. #2 (2015)
Cinderella 32 2.96 $201.2M $67.9M Mar. #9 (2015)
Sing 32 7.67 $270.4M $35.3M Dec. #10 (2016)
Toy Story 4* 32 3.47 $419.7M $120.9M Jun. #4 (2019)
Mission: Impossible – Fallout 36 3.60 $220.2M $61.2M Jul. #8 (2018)
Spider-Man: Homecoming 36 2.86 $334.2M $117.0M Jul. #6 (2017)
Incredibles 2 36 3.33 $608.6M $182.7M Jun. #3 (2018)
Despicable Me 3 37 3.65 $264.6M $72.4M Jun. #9 (2017)
The Secret Life of Pets 37 3.53 $368.4M $104.4M Jul. #4 (2016)
Captain Marvel 38 2.78 $426.8M $153.4M Mar. #3 (2019)
Black Panther 38 3.47 $700.1M $202.0M Feb. #1 (2018)
Inside Out 39 3.94 $356.5M $90.4M Jun. #4 (2015)
The Jungle Book 39 3.53 $364.0M $103.3M Apr. #5 (2016)
Wonder Woman 41 4.00 $412.6M $103.3M Jun. #3 (2017)
Dr. Seuss' The Grinch 42 4.00 $270.6M $67.6M Nov. #7 (2018)
The Martian 44 4.21 $228.4M $54.3M Oct. #8 (2015)
Aladdin* 44 3.86 $352.8M $91.5M May #6 (2019)
Zootopia 45 4.55 $341.3M $75.1M Mar. #7 (2016)
Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle 54 11.18 $404.5M $36.2M Dec. #4 (2017)
Bohemian Rhapsody 69 4.24 $216.4M $51.1M Nov. #10 (2018)
average of table 33 3.44        
median of table 31 2.93        
* highlighted in yellow: numbers are not final / still in theaters
 
display of dollars rounded to nearest hundred thousand

numbers current as of August 11, 2019

 

CfS90tx.png

 

 

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48 minutes ago, tawasal said:

Captain Marvel had 420m at week 9 with similar 4.2m weekend. And TS4 is at 419.7m at week 8 with 4.5m weekend. This race is tight but I think TS4 is going to win it with 427m-429m, with no major release until IT2. 

Toy Story 4 just made $4.53M this weekend for a nearly $420M total - even without any Labour Day boost there is no way it only ends with $427-429M, that's only another 7-9M. 

 

Peace,

Mike

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