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Eric Duncan

Tuesday (8/14) Thread | Angry Birds 2.6M OD

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https://deadline.com/2019/08/angry-birds-movie-2-hatching-2-5m-today-ahead-of-another-crowded-downer-august-weekend-box-office-1202667689/

 

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Similar to last weekend before everybody rushes back to school, studios and distributors are trying to grab as much cash as they can. Today, for example, in the wake of Paramount opening Dora and the Lost City of Gold last weekend, Sony decided to have Rovio’s Angry Birds Movie 2 fly at 3,869 in what looks to be a $2.5M Tuesday.

 

Per ComScore, there are still 70% K-12 schools out today, but that number dwindles down to 56% by Friday, and 38% the following Friday, Aug. 23. The m.o. by the majors is to get as many of these pics that couldn’t be fitted on the regular summer schedule, out before the new school season really pulls people out of the multiplex.

 

Six-day outlook for Angry Birds 2 is north of $16M. The animated pic before distribution and marketing expenses cost $65M. The first movie released in May 2016 cost $73M and grossed $352.3M worldwide. The sequel has already earned around $3M abroad from territories such as China, the UK, Ukraine, South Korea and Norway to name a few.

 

Edited by Eric!
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Pulling this out of thin air as there are no comps, not just for a Tue Aug release but due to change in release date...

 

2.5

3.0 // due to last minute date change

2.4 (-20%) // as wed is not od this drop may not be as big as 30%

4.1 (+70%)

6.2 (+50%)

4.3 (-30%)

= 22.5 6-day (14.6 FSS)

 

RT Aud score is 84% after 205+ verified reviews.

Edited by a2k
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Looks like it’s going to fall about 2/3rd in SK. Wouldn’t be surprised with a 70-50% fall domestically and in the rest of the world.   

 

In fact it looks like it came out 2 weekend ago in the UK and will have a 60%ish fall from the first one. The fact that this got greenlit at this budget just baffles me, to be honest. 

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I'll wait to see how the next few days play out before calling this a flop or hit. It's definitely a weird release date, especially with the last-minute change, so multiplier might look funny throughout the rest of the weekend. 

Definitely will drop from the first, but if the budget is only 65M, I don't see how this doesn't at least pass 150M WW.

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2 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Looks like it’s going to fall about 2/3rd in SK. Wouldn’t be surprised with a 70-50% fall domestically and in the rest of the world.   

 

In fact it looks like it came out 2 weekend ago in the UK and will have a 60%ish fall from the first one. The fact that this got greenlit at this budget just baffles me, to be honest. 

prod budget's just 65m. don't think marketing might have crossed 100m. this one's not gonna loose money in the long-term even if it does 50 dom and 100 os for 150 ww.

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30 minutes ago, a2k said:

prod budget's just 65m. don't think marketing might have crossed 100m. this one's not gonna loose money in the long-term even if it does 50 dom and 100 os for 150 ww.

Last one was about 30% China.    

 

So that scenario looks like roughly 25 revenue DOM, 28 OS-C, 6M C for 59, not exactly a disaster but not a clear case of profitability either imo.    

 

I’d guess it will be more like 40 DOM+ 80s OS, but we’ll see. 

Edited by Thanos Legion
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H&S guess (111.1 after Monday)

 

Tue-Thu

4.2 (+55%)

2.4 (-42.5%)

2.1 (-12.5%) // 119.8

 

FSS

3.8 (+80%)

5.8 (+52.5%)

4.1 (-30%)

= 13.7 (-45.6%) // 133.5 cume

 

2.25x 3rd weekend more,

133.5 + 13.7*2.25 = 164+

 

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14 minutes ago, a2k said:

H&S guess (111.1 after Monday)

 

Tue-Thu

4.2 (+55%)

2.4 (-42.5%)

2.1 (-12.5%) // 119.8

 

FSS

3.8 (+80%)

5.8 (+52.5%)

4.1 (-30%)

= 13.7 (-45.6%) // 133.5 cume

 

2.25x 3rd weekend more,

133.5 + 13.7*2.25 = 164+

 

@Alli‘s club coming in for a possible photo finish.

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And it was such a weird decision to move Angry Birds 2 date...my kids watched America Ninja Warrior hyping it this week, and they kept saying Wednesday, Wednesday, Wednesday:)...as did the Kids Baking Championship on Food Network (yes, somehow I saw 2 product placement shows for this movie this week...and I haven't seen these types in awhile:)...

 

It had to be a "what have we got to lose" decision made in an instant when the opportunity of BTS leaving after Monday (pretty much everywhere, right?) dropped in their lap...

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Still dont understand why this was made. After all the hand wringing in 16 for how the first one failed to meet expectations and have decent legs, to then drop it in August 🤦‍♂️. I dont understand movie studios sometimes. 

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