Weekend Thread: Estimates - Angel Has Fallen $21.25M | Good Boys $11.75M | Overcomer $8.20M | The Lion King $8.15M | H&S $8.14M - & $101.8M in China

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Stamina update on the Top 10 domestic movies $>200M (2015-2019):
 

Spoiler

Top 10 Highest Domestic Grossing Movie >$200M (2015 – 2019)	90% of Gross on Day	Multiplier (DG ÷ FW)	Domestic Gross	First Weekend	Release Month	Rank
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	18	1.99	$330.4M	$166.0M	Mar.	#8 (2016)
Justice League	23	2.44	$229.0M	$93.8M	Nov.	#10 (2017)
Captain America: Civil War	23	2.28	$408.1M	$179.1M	May	#3 (2016)
The Lion King*	23	2.66	$510.6M	$191.8M	Jul.	#2 (2019)
Star Wars: The Last Jedi	23	2.82	$620.2M	$220.0M	Dec.	#1 (2017)
Furious 7	24	2.40	$353.0M	$147.2M	Apr.	#5 (2015)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story	25	3.43	$532.2M	$155.1M	Dec.	#1 (2016)
Avengers: Endgame*	25	2.40	$858.2M	$357.1M	Apr.	#1 (2019)
Avengers: Age of Ultron	26	2.40	$459.0M	$191.3M	May	#3 (2015)
Spider-Man: Far From Home*	27	4.10	$379.8M	$92.6M	Jul.	#5 (2019)
It	28	2.65	$327.5M	$123.4M	Sep.	#7 (2017)
Spectre	29	2.84	$200.1M	$70.4M	Nov.	#10 (2015)
Thor: Ragnarok	29	2.57	$315.1M	$122.7M	Nov.	#8 (2017)
Deadpool 2	29	2.54	$318.5M	$125.5M	May	#6 (2018)
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom	29	2.82	$417.7M	$148.0M	Jun.	#4 (2018)
Finding Dory	29	3.60	$486.3M	$135.1M	Jun.	#2 (2016)
Suicide Squad	30	2.43	$325.1M	$133.7M	Aug.	#9 (2016)
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	30	2.66	$389.8M	$146.5M	May	#5 (2017)
Avengers: Infinity War	30	2.63	$678.8M	$257.7M	Apr.	#2 (2018)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens	30	3.78	$936.7M	$248.0M	Dec.	#1 (2015)
Ant-Man and the Wasp	31	2.86	$216.6M	$75.8M	Jul.	#9 (2018)
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – P2	31	2.74	$281.7M	$102.7M	Nov.	#7 (2015)
Aquaman	31	4.94	$335.1M	$67.9M	Dec.	#5 (2018)
Minions	31	2.90	$336.0M	$115.7M	Jul.	#6 (2015)
Deadpool	31	2.74	$363.1M	$132.4M	Feb.	#6 (2016)
Beauty and the Beast	31	2.88	$504.0M	$174.8M	Mar.	#2 (2017)
Jurassic World	31	3.12	$652.3M	$208.8M	Jun.	#2 (2015)
Cinderella	32	2.96	$201.2M	$67.9M	Mar.	#9 (2015)
Sing	32	7.67	$270.4M	$35.3M	Dec.	#10 (2016)
Toy Story 4*	35	3.53	$426.7M	$120.9M	Jun.	#4 (2019)
Mission: Impossible – Fallout	36	3.60	$220.2M	$61.2M	Jul.	#8 (2018)
Spider-Man: Homecoming	36	2.86	$334.2M	$117.0M	Jul.	#6 (2017)
Incredibles 2	36	3.33	$608.6M	$182.7M	Jun.	#3 (2018)
Despicable Me 3	37	3.65	$264.6M	$72.4M	Jun.	#9 (2017)
The Secret Life of Pets	37	3.53	$368.4M	$104.4M	Jul.	#4 (2016)
Captain Marvel	38	2.78	$426.8M	$153.4M	Mar.	#3 (2019)
Black Panther	38	3.47	$700.1M	$202.0M	Feb.	#1 (2018)
Inside Out	39	3.94	$356.5M	$90.4M	Jun.	#4 (2015)
The Jungle Book	39	3.53	$364.0M	$103.3M	Apr.	#5 (2016)
Wonder Woman	41	4.00	$412.6M	$103.3M	Jun.	#3 (2017)
Dr. Seuss' The Grinch	42	4.00	$270.6M	$67.6M	Nov.	#7 (2018)
The Martian	44	4.21	$228.4M	$54.3M	Oct.	#8 (2015)
Aladdin*	44	3.87	$353.9M	$91.5M	May	#6 (2019)
Zootopia	45	4.55	$341.3M	$75.1M	Mar.	#7 (2016)
Jumanji: Welcome To The Jungle	54	11.18	$404.5M	$36.2M	Dec.	#4 (2017)
Bohemian Rhapsody	69	4.24	$216.4M	$51.1M	Nov.	#10 (2018)
average of table	33	3.45
median of table	31	2.93
* highlighted in yellow: numbers are not final / still in theaters
display of dollars rounded to nearest hundred thousand
numbers current as of August 25, 2019

 

 

 

[MikeQ]

With actuals, The Lion King has officially crossed the $1 billion mark internationally, and it will soon be the 7th highest grossing film of all time worldwide. 

 

Peace,

Mike

[sfran43]

2 hours ago, MikeQ said:

With actuals, The Lion King has officially crossed the $1 billion mark internationally, and it will soon be the 7th highest grossing film of all time worldwide. 

 

Peace,

Mike

Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic:  $510,550,966    33.8% + Foreign:  $1,000,775,374    66.2% = Worldwide:  $1,511,326,340

[sfran43]

Est. / Act.		Diff	Movie Title (click to view)	Studio	Studio Est. / Actual		Diff	% Diff	Theaters	Est. Total	Actual	Wk
1	1	-	Angel has Fallen	LGF	$21,250,000	$21,380,987	$+130,987	+0.6%	3,286	$21,250,000	$21,380,987	1
2	2	-	Good Boys	Uni.	$11,750,000	$11,635,655	$-114,345	-1.0%	3,353	$42,057,505	$41,943,160	2
3	3	-	Overcomer	Affirm	$8,200,000	$8,146,533	$-53,467	-0.7%	1,723	$8,200,000	$8,146,533	1
4	5	+1	The Lion King (2019)	BV	$8,150,000	$8,065,231	$-84,769	-1.0%	3,300	$510,635,735	$510,550,966	6
5	4	-1	Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw	Uni.	$8,140,000	$8,068,380	$-71,620	-0.9%	3,312	$147,701,255	$147,629,635	4
6	6	-	Ready or Not	FoxS	$7,550,000	$8,015,590	$+465,590	+6.2%	2,855	$10,578,148	$11,043,738	1
7	7	-	The Angry Birds Movie 2	Sony	$6,365,000	$6,382,267	$+17,267	+0.3%	3,869	$27,091,263	$27,108,630	2
8	8	-	Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark	LGF	$6,000,000	$5,867,926	$-132,074	-2.2%	2,827	$50,489,202	$50,357,128	3
9	9	-	Dora and the Lost City of Gold	Par.	$5,200,000	$5,331,043	$+131,043	+2.5%	2,843	$43,099,953	$43,230,996	3
10	10	-	Once Upon a Time in Hollywood	Sony	$5,000,000	$5,005,400	$+5,400	+0.1%	2,209	$123,187,467	$123,192,867	5
11	11	-	47 Meters Down: Uncaged	ENTMP	$4,000,000	$3,920,632	$-79,368	-2.0%	2,883	$15,415,947	$15,336,579	2
12	12	-	The Peanut Butter Falcon	RAtt.	$3,008,940	$2,959,045	$-49,895	-1.7%	986	$3,728,289	$3,678,394	3
13	14	+1	Blinded By the Light	WB	$2,100,000	$1,982,086	$-117,914	-5.6%	2,307	$8,221,406	$8,103,492	2
14	13	-1	The Art of Racing in the Rain	Fox	$2,071,000	$2,106,419	$+35,419	+1.7%	2,040	$21,451,327	$21,486,746	3
15	15	-	Spider-Man: Far from Home	Sony	$1,665,000	$1,682,473	$+17,473	+1.0%	1,008	$379,734,007	$379,751,480	8
16	16	-	Where'd You Go, Bernadette	UAR	$1,404,300	$1,424,237	$+19,937	+1.4%	2,306	$6,589,860	$6,609,797	2
17	17	-	Toy Story 4	BV	$1,259,000	$1,230,836	$-28,164	-2.2%	820	$426,762,256	$426,734,092	10
18	18	-	The Farewell	A24	$944,482	$882,623	$-61,859	-6.5%	816	$14,474,395	$14,412,536	7
19	19	-	Mission Mangal	FIP	$653,000	$655,056	$+2,056	+0.3%	263	$2,711,211	$2,713,267	2
20	20	-	Yesterday	Uni.	$410,000	$399,550	$-10,450	-2.5%	438	$72,402,160	$72,391,710	9
21	22	+1	Luce	Neon	$253,500	$252,480	$-1,020	-0.4%	160	$864,182	$863,162	4
22	23	+1	Aladdin (2019)	BV	$209,000	$204,546	$-4,454	-2.1%	185	$353,868,113	$353,863,659	14
23	24	+1	The Secret Life of Pets 2	Uni.	$188,000	$201,400	$+13,400	+7.1%	185	$157,435,465	$157,448,865	12
24	25	+1	Brittany Runs a Marathon	Amazon	$175,969	$180,711	$+4,742	+2.7%	5	$175,969	$180,711	1
25	26	+1	After the Wedding (2019)	SPC	$163,200	$154,115	$-9,085	-5.6%	81	$357,732	$348,647	3
26	27	+1	Maiden	SPC	$159,869	$140,525	$-19,344	-12.1%	153	$2,534,172	$2,514,828	9
27	28	+1	Crawl	Par.	$135,000	$132,290	$-2,710	-2.0%	143	$38,829,673	$38,827,963	7
28	29	+1	Brian Banks	BST	$131,652	$131,579	$-73	-0.1%	220	$4,163,895	$4,173,394	3
29	31	+2	Rocketman	Par.	$70,000	$71,468	$+1,468	+2.1%	118	$96,226,939	$96,227,407	13
30	32	+2	John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum	LG/S	$65,000	$68,942	$+3,942	+6.1%	129	$170,791,059	$170,795,001	15
31	34	+3	Tel Aviv on Fire	Cohen	$60,404	$60,622	$+218	+0.4%	37	$317,529	$317,767	4
32	37	+5	Midsommar	A24	$52,586	$49,354	$-3,232	-6.1%	44	$26,032,545	$26,029,313	8
33	36	+3	Avengers: Endgame	BV	$50,000	$50,268	$+268	+0.5%	115	$858,238,415	$858,238,683	18
34	41	+7	Stuber	Fox	$47,000	$45,170	$-1,830	-3.9%	75	$22,352,956	$22,351,126	7

[dxmatrixdt]

i'm worried about Brie Larson with TS4 passing Captain Marvel

[a2k]

TLK 90 away from 1.6b after 8+ dom weekend and 30+ os weekend.

 

- 25 to come from dom. (adding 3x this weekend)

- japan weekend was just under 4m and it has 20 to come for there according to corpse.

- os-japan weekend was 26 and it needs 45 for 1.6b with above targets which should be easy and will even make up the difference if those targets are missed by a small amount.

Edited August 27, 2019 by a2k

[Hatebox]

11 hours ago, MikeQ said:

With actuals, The Lion King has officially crossed the $1 billion mark internationally, and it will soon be the 7th highest grossing film of all time worldwide. 

 

Peace,

Mike

Mediocrity FTW!

[filmlover]

Didn't notice but that's actually a pretty good start for Brittany Runs a Marathon. Hopefully is able to build an audience since Amazon is planning a slow rollout (it doesn't open here until September 13).

[Taruseth]

22 hours ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

 

As expected, a bunch of bullshit. I'm not sure if you know how to read a text, but Billboard is expecting 700k from her first week, not 550k. While HDD has it between 725k-825k which would put is as the second biggest album of year on the OW alone.

 

http://hitsdailydouble.com/news&id=317667&title=NEW-RELEASE%3A-EARLY-READS-ON-LOVER

 

I know that you're a desperate Madonna stan who can't stand the fact that Taylor has managed to show more longevity than this woman despite relying on talent instead of image, but you don't need to go that low trying to paint an OW of 800k+ when everyone is struggling to sell it on total as a bad thing, especially when it's a seventh album. The only one on Taylor's level these days is Adele.

They are talking about albums sold, so only downloads and physical sales. And there Billboard initially expected 550k but due to stronger second and third day sales it already is at 575k after three days and they expect 630-650k now.

The number you quote is the equivalent album units number which ad downloads of single songs (10 downloads = 1 album) and streaming equivalent album units (using 1:1500 for paid and 1:3750 for ad-supported and video streams) that number is higher around 750k is the new number from Billboard.

 

22 hours ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

[...]

 

And I'm laughing so hard at them trying to put a 700k-800k OW as a bad thing when the Industry has completely collapsed and not even the main Pop girls of the moment (Billie Ellish, Ariana Grande) can sell HALF of it, this shows how high is her level.

It isn't but its lower than her previous one though to be fair albums rarely sell more than 1M units during a weekend.

In pure sales since 1991 (SoundScan took over) there only have been 19 first weeks above 1M and 4 more (Whitney Houston's The Bodyguard soundtrack album Christmas week, the Beatles' 1 Christmas week and Adele's 25 second and fifth (Christmas) weeks). If streaming is added as far as I found only Views by Drake gets added with 1.04M equivalent album units of which 852k (so the overwhelming majority) were sales.

 

 

Billie Eilish and Ariana Grande have stronger streaming numbers than TS overall helping their albums slightly.

 

AFAIK it's one of the best weeks in the past 5 years; list ordered by pure sales:

#1: Adele 25 3.378M (3.48M EAU so 100k from Hello being sold and streamed)

#2: TS's 1989 1.287M

#3: TS's Reputation 1.216M (1.238M EAU)

#4: 25's fifth weekend 1.19M

#5: 25's second weekend 1.16M

#6: Drake's Views 852k (1.04M EAU)

#7: 25's fourth weekend 790k

#8: 25's third weekend 695k

#9: TS's Lover 650k (750k EAU -> #8))

#10: Justin Bieber's Purpose: 522k (649k EAU)

#11: Beyonce's Lemonade 485k (653k EAU)

etc.

Big streaming albums:

Drake's Scorpion: 160k (732k EAU)

Travis Scoot's Astroworld: 270k (537k EAU)

Lil Wayne's Tha Carter V: 141k (480k EAU)

 

In other words the Top 10 is basically Adele and Taylor Swift who hold 5 (all with the same album) and 3 spots respectively.

 

 

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

3 hours ago, Taruseth said:

They are talking about albums sold, so only downloads and physical sales. And there Billboard initially expected 550k but due to stronger second and third day sales it already is at 575k after three days and they expect 630-650k now.

The number you quote is the equivalent album units number which ad downloads of single songs (10 downloads = 1 album) and streaming equivalent album units (using 1:1500 for paid and 1:3750 for ad-supported and video streams) that number is higher around 750k is the new number from Billboard.

 

It isn't but its lower than her previous one though to be fair albums rarely sell more than 1M units during a weekend.

In pure sales since 1991 (SoundScan took over) there only have been 19 first weeks above 1M and 4 more (Whitney Houston's The Bodyguard soundtrack album Christmas week, the Beatles' 1 Christmas week and Adele's 25 second and fifth (Christmas) weeks). If streaming is added as far as I found only Views by Drake gets added with 1.04M equivalent album units of which 852k (so the overwhelming majority) were sales.

 

 

Billie Eilish and Ariana Grande have stronger streaming numbers than TS overall helping their albums slightly.

 

AFAIK it's one of the best weeks in the past 5 years; list ordered by pure sales:

#1: Adele 25 3.378M (3.48M EAU so 100k from Hello being sold and streamed)

#2: TS's 1989 1.287M

#3: TS's Reputation 1.216M (1.238M EAU)

#4: 25's fifth weekend 1.19M

#5: 25's second weekend 1.16M

#6: Drake's Views 852k (1.04M EAU)

#7: 25's fourth weekend 790k

#8: 25's third weekend 695k

#9: TS's Lover 650k (750k EAU -> #8))

#10: Justin Bieber's Purpose: 522k (649k EAU)

#11: Beyonce's Lemonade 485k (653k EAU)

etc.

Big streaming albums:

Drake's Scorpion: 160k (732k EAU)

Travis Scoot's Astroworld: 270k (537k EAU)

Lil Wayne's Tha Carter V: 141k (480k EAU)

 

In other words the Top 10 is basically Adele and Taylor Swift who hold 5 (all with the same album) and 3 spots respectively.

 

 

I know the difference between pure sales, and SPS. I'm bringing the overall number for LOVER because this user was trying to say that she was dropping 50% compared to Reputation in pure sales, when the only reason for lower PS, is because it's on streaming services (unlike REP), which is obviously deflating her PS this time.

 

I'm pretty sure that nobody expected her to come close to her previous albums, I mean, the industry has collapsed, the fact that she sold in 3 days in PS more than any album released this year says it all. The fact that she's nearing 1M, despite having no smash hit, with the industry pretty much burying pshicial copies, and it being her SEVENTH album, no less, just reinforces her status as a legend of Industry (at least sales-wise), I've never seen someone enjoying her consistency.

 

Edited August 27, 2019 by The Horror of Lucas Films

[lorddemaxus]

I'm just gonna say that I think Charli XCX's Charli will end up being better than any pop album this year.

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

33 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I'm just gonna say that I think Charli XCX's Charli will end up being better than any pop album this year.

 

Nothing will top Lover for me, it has the best lyrics I've seen in a Pop album since the release of EMOTION. 

 

Currently at 80 on Metacritic, after 21 reviews. Taylor won again.

[pepsa]

3 hours ago, Taruseth said:

They are talking about albums sold, so only downloads and physical sales. And there Billboard initially expected 550k but due to stronger second and third day sales it already is at 575k after three days and they expect 630-650k now.

The number you quote is the equivalent album units number which ad downloads of single songs (10 downloads = 1 album) and streaming equivalent album units (using 1:1500 for paid and 1:3750 for ad-supported and video streams) that number is higher around 750k is the new number from Billboard.

 

It isn't but its lower than her previous one though to be fair albums rarely sell more than 1M units during a weekend.

In pure sales since 1991 (SoundScan took over) there only have been 19 first weeks above 1M and 4 more (Whitney Houston's The Bodyguard soundtrack album Christmas week, the Beatles' 1 Christmas week and Adele's 25 second and fifth (Christmas) weeks). If streaming is added as far as I found only Views by Drake gets added with 1.04M equivalent album units of which 852k (so the overwhelming majority) were sales.

 

 

Billie Eilish and Ariana Grande have stronger streaming numbers than TS overall helping their albums slightly.

 

AFAIK it's one of the best weeks in the past 5 years; list ordered by pure sales:

#1: Adele 25 3.378M (3.48M EAU so 100k from Hello being sold and streamed)

#2: TS's 1989 1.287M

#3: TS's Reputation 1.216M (1.238M EAU)

#4: 25's fifth weekend 1.19M

#5: 25's second weekend 1.16M

#6: Drake's Views 852k (1.04M EAU)

#7: 25's fourth weekend 790k

#8: 25's third weekend 695k

#9: TS's Lover 650k (750k EAU -> #8))

#10: Justin Bieber's Purpose: 522k (649k EAU)

#11: Beyonce's Lemonade 485k (653k EAU)

etc.

Big streaming albums:

Drake's Scorpion: 160k (732k EAU)

Travis Scoot's Astroworld: 270k (537k EAU)

Lil Wayne's Tha Carter V: 141k (480k EAU)

 

In other words the Top 10 is basically Adele and Taylor Swift who hold 5 (all with the same album) and 3 spots respectively.

 

 

The problem with not streaming albums is that they drop off so extremely hard the next weekends. (Most of the times). 

Becasue Taylor opening to 750k means she will have hard time getting to 2m on Billboard. Let's say CardiB would open to 450k she's easily go over 2m copies sold. Now Cardi b got 2m aquivilent album salles (Using streams etc) off a 255k debut. 

 

Also under big streaming Albums I would put Bearbongs and Bentleys because it easily outsold Astroworld and Tha Carter V. 

Astroworld had 2m salles by january 2019, Carter 5 crossed 1m after november 2018. Compare this to Bearbongs it had 3.05m in salles by december 2018. 

I think the biggest albums released since 2017 in salles (only US). 

Edsheran Divide 4m +

Scorpion drake 4m +

Bearbongs Post 3m +

 

I would say that drake is on top of the game atm, he's a monster in making people stream his music and make them do it for a long time. After that I would be looking at the upcomming Post, both of his albums have sold over 3m albums in the US. If his next album goes over 3m again I would say he's probably locking 3rd position atm, maybe be second but we would have to wait for Ed's next album. Or other upcomming artist obv. As an astrix outside of the US Post and Drake aren't  nearly as big. And if we go back to 2015 Adele sold so many albums both in and outside of the US.

Taylor got to 2.25m with a 1.22m debute. I mean this means unless taylor hits it will the people who listen music on spotify/apple music he album won't have good legs because it's so fan rushed and they mostly buy an actual CD (I am not going to lie it's pretty cool she can sell that much cd's in age where selling cd's/dvd's/bluerays is getting more scarce by the minute.  Still a 35% drop from her last album is pretty big, I do expect her multi to go up and hope it covers the loss on opening week. If not her popularity is on the decline.

That said Taylor does atract a lot more people with tours and concerts. Almost no persone is comming close to her on this aspect of the buisness (mind you the most profitable aspect of music). And I don't think she will get beaten by anyone here, atleast not anytime soon. She has a big fanbase and they are pretty loyal thats how you well so much Cd's instead of streams. And me sayig she has a lot of diehard fans is also from first hand

expirience namely my girlfriend.