Weekend Thread: Estimates - Angel Has Fallen $21.25M | Good Boys $11.75M | Overcomer $8.20M | The Lion King $8.15M | H&S $8.14M - & $101.8M in China

[kitik]

first, on a side tangent, I actually liked Den of Thieves

 

second, those numbers are funny:

 

2013 - 550K previews / 10 friday / 30.3 ow

 

2016 - 850 / 7.5 / 21.6

 

2019 - 1.5 previews ...

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

1.5M is actually... quite good? Maybe 16-17M weekend?

 

I just laughed at the progression of the numbers.

Or maybe I was sad.

One of those.

[terrestrial]

Boxoffice Pro‏ @BoxOffice 24m24 minutes ago

More

Long Range Forecast: MALEFICENT: MISTRESS OF EVIL and ZOMBIELAND 2; Plus IT: CHAPTER TWO, HUSTLERS, and DOWNTON ABBEY Updates...

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-maleficent-mistress-of-evil-and-zombieland-2-plus-it-chapter-two-hustlers-downton-abbey-updates/

Quote

8-Week Forecast

Release Date	Title	3-Day (FSS) Opening Range	3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Domestic Total Forecast	% Chg from Last Week	Estimated Location Count	Distributor
8/30/2019	Don’t Let Go	n/a	n/a		n/a		n/a	OTL
9/6/2019	It: Chapter Two	$100,000,000 – $140,000,000	$119,000,000	-14%	$290,000,000	-6%	4,200	Warner Bros. / New Line
9/13/2019	The Goldfinch	$7,500,000 – $12,500,000	$9,500,000	-5%	$31,000,000	-6%		Warner Bros.
9/13/2019	Hustlers	$15,000,000 – $25,000,000	$21,000,000	62%	$60,000,000	54%		STX
9/20/2019	Ad Astra	$17,000,000 – $22,000,000	$20,000,000		$65,000,000			Fox
9/20/2019	Downton Abbey	$14,000,000 – $19,000,000	n/a	NEW	n/a			Universal
9/20/2019	Rambo: Last Blood	$11,000,000 – $16,000,000	$14,500,000		$35,000,000			Lionsgate
9/27/2019	Abominable	$19,000,000 – $24,000,000	$22,500,000		$75,000,000			Universal
10/4/2019	Joker	$70,000,000 – $95,000,000	$81,000,000		$180,000,000			Warner Bros.
10/11/2019	The Addams Family (2019)	$16,000,000 – $21,000,000	$18,000,000		$70,000,000			United Artists Releasing
10/11/2019	The Current War (Expansion)	n/a	n/a		n/a			101 Studios
10/11/2019	Gemini Man	$25,000,000 – $30,000,000	$28,000,000		$90,000,000			Paramount
10/11/2019	Jexi	n/a	n/a		n/a			Lionsgate / CBS Films / Entertainment One
10/18/2019	Maleficent: Mistress of Evil	$30,000,000 – $50,000,000	$37,000,000	NEW	$110,000,000	NEW		Disney
10/18/2019	Zombieland 2: Double Tap	$24,000,000 – $34,000,000	$30,000,000	NEW	$77,000,000	NEW		Sony / Columbia

 

 

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, Jonwo said:

The overseas rights for Angel has Fallen has already been presold so Lionsgate has made the budget back already. They only have to focus on UK and US distribution so they'll still break even or even make a small profit

$80M is a big price tag to buyers, but considering the last one made $120M intl-UK maybe.

 

According to the press back in the days:

Many believe that the reasonable range for Allegiant‘s foreign sales including overages is $75M-$95M.

 

It was a sequel to a movie that did 156M intl-UK.

 

 

[DAJK]

https://deadline.com/2019/08/ready-or-not-angel-has-fallen-good-boys-box-office-weekend-1202701545/

 

Angel - $7.9M Friday, possible 20M weekend.

Good Boys - $3M/$10.3M (ouch, hoping for higher)

Overcomer - $3.1M/$7.8M

Hobbs - $2M/$7.4M

Redy or Not - $2.2M/$6.55M (nice, glad to see it's rebounding)

Angry Birds - $1.3M/$4.8M (ouch)

[Alli]

That long range forecast for The Goldfinch is all kinds of wrong. Movie will open close to 20M, not a chance it goes UNDER 10M

[Alli]

Also Maleficent is way too low. I'm expecting around 50M

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

https://deadline.com/2019/08/ready-or-not-angel-has-fallen-good-boys-box-office-weekend-1202701545/

 

Angel - $7.9M Friday, possible 20M weekend.

Good Boys - $3M/$10.3M (ouch, hoping for higher)

Overcomer - $3.1M/$7.8M

Hobbs - $2M/$7.4M

Redy or Not - $2.2M/$6.55M (nice, glad to see it's rebounding)

Angry Birds - $1.3M/$4.8M (ouch)

after "burning off demand" tue-thu before the ow, that would be a big ouch. 

 

hope hobbs does a bit more on fri, ~2.2 and aims for 8+

[DAJK]

Animated sequels just haven't had a good year lmao. Lego and Pets both did about 100M less than they were expected to, and Angry Birds is going to struggle to pass 35M (less than the opening weekend of its predecessor). We all know what this means...

 

Spoiler

they are the sacrificial lambs for Frozen 2 doing 600M+. MICKEY'S LAWWWWWWW

 

[cookie]

25 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Angry Birds - $1.3M/$4.8M (ouch)

Holy fuck

 

Considering it had a six-day launch that drop is toxic

Edited August 23, 2019 by cookie

[el sid]

25 minutes ago, Alli said:

Also Maleficent is way too low. I'm expecting around 50M

IMO Boxofficepro is one of the best box office prediction sites the week when a movie is finally released. But their Long Range Forecast is often not good. Look at their OW prediction for H&S or the total of Stuber (63M instead of actually 23M), only 35M OW for John Wick 3, only 10M OW for Scary Stories, 10M OW for Yesterday and now they lifted the prediction for Hustlers about 62%...

I didn't see that coming for AhF but as a Butler fan I'm very pleased . I expected nice walk ups but still not more than 16M OW (best case scenario).

Also a  fine number for Overcomer (so we were totally off in the buzz thread and know it for the future). But here I'm not so surprised because the trailer created such a feelgood atmosphere - if you like that kind of films. And War Room was a success too.

And I also hope that Good Boys increases, WOM seems to be so good.

[Alli]

@el sid  It's hard to predict this much in advance, but that Maleficent number is way way too low. First one opened to 70M.  There's no reason this second one would drop to 30M.  The first one was not hated like say The Mummy 2017, it was more of a shrug. Plus it had very good legs.  People didn't hate it

Edited August 23, 2019 by Alli

[dudalb]

5 hours ago, Jonwo said:

The overseas rights for Angel has Fallen has already been presold so Lionsgate has made the budget back already. They only have to focus on UK and US distribution so they'll still break even or even make a small profit

That is the way that Lionsgate operates. They seem willing to settle for getting less on overseas box office for a lesser risk at the box office.

Of course if the film is a massive  world wide hit it means you just gave up a lot of money, but Lionsgate seems to prefer to minimize risk ,hoping the domestic take is good enough to keep the shareholders happy.

[DAJK]

BoxOffice's Long Range Forecast is often much better than people give it credit for. And it updates often enough to keep in line with what is expected of a film. It's not trying to make "predictions" but is rather estimating where a film is going to land based on various tracking metrics, which fluctuate and update as a movie nears its release.

 

Look at KOTM from earlier this summer. They took so much flack for that prediction 2 months out, but it ended up being pretty much spot on in the end. 

[Jonwo]

$20m for Angel has Fallen would be solid considering that London has Fallen wasn't good although it had okay legs

30 minutes ago, dudalb said:

That is the way that Lionsgate operates. They seem willing to settle for getting less on overseas box office for a lesser risk at the box office.

Of course if the film is a massive  world wide hit it means you just gave up a lot of money, but Lionsgate seems to prefer to minimize risk ,hoping the domestic take is good enough to keep the shareholders happy.

Lionsgate also doesn't the resources to distribute worldwide apart from their UK arm. It's the same with the likes of MGM who have to rely on the bigger studios to distribute their films OS and also the opposite is true for studios like Entertainment One and Studiocanal who distribute in many OS territories but have no US distributions so they have to rely on Lionsgate or another studio to distribute their content domestically.  

 

In the case of the Has Fallen franchise, Lionsgate was only involved with the UK distribution originally but I assume either Focus Features wasn't interested or Lionsgate offered Millennium Media a better offer. 

Edited August 23, 2019 by Jonwo

[Krissykins]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

https://deadline.com/2019/08/ready-or-not-angel-has-fallen-good-boys-box-office-weekend-1202701545/

 

 

Redy or Not - $2.2M/$6.55M

 

A 100% Friday increase. Hope this increases even more at night. 

 

I just went to see Crawl and it was fantastic. Like really fantastic. 

Edited August 23, 2019 by Krissykins

[Jonwo]

I'm surprised Lionsgate hasn't dated The Hitman's Bodyguard's Wife yet considering it's almost in the can. I think August 2020 is the most likely or perhaps September.

[Maxmoser3]

Wow! This weekend is dead, but Angel doing potentially over $20 million must be a slight sigh of relief maybe. Now this could maybe lead on Labor Day weekend, since next weekend is looking to be even worse. 

[sfran43]

Hobbs & Shaw’ Brings The Brawn To China With $40M Through Friday; Muscling In On $112M+ Weekend Bow

By Nancy Tartaglione

August 23, 2019 12:58pm

Universal Pictures

Universal’s Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw muscled into China on Friday, grossing an estimated $34.5M (RMB 245M). The figures do not include Thursday midnights and rep the 2nd best debut of 2019 for an imported movie, behind only Avengers: Endgame. Overall, this is the No. 7 best opening day ever for a foreign film in the Middle Kingdom (in local currency terms).

With the $4.96M (RMB 35.2M) from Thursday’s midnights, the running come is $39.5M. The Dwayne Johnson/Jason Statham-starrer is the first action film in the market since Spider-Man: Far From Homedebuted in late June ($35.5M opening day with previews included).

Edited August 24, 2019 by sfran43

[Legion Again]

It’s not hitting 100 in China OW. There were signs of frontloading in the presales ramp up and they’re playing out in the hourlies today.

[Blaze Heatnix]

ANGEL HAS FALLEN (2019)