Raya and the Last Dragon | March 5, 2021 | Premier Access/Theater simultaneous release

[TwoMisfits]

Disney messed this release up - for Domestic, releasing a week after TJ (losing family audience) and the same weekend as Boogie (pulling from same demo audience) to screwing up getting theaters to book - it's not gonna be pretty.

 

Everyone jumped on me for saying $9M DOM open after the TJ open...it may end up being the industry $6-7M DOM, and that would be uber-awful after the TJ open with NYC now open, and this being a Disney original, and not a mediocre old cartoon...

 

There's still time, but time is getting short.  They better hope the D+ sales are enormous for this...

[Mau]

Yup the saddest thing is that this is the first original animated disney movie since Moana. I would have prefered a disney live action movie to be in this situation, instead of Raya

Edited March 4, 2021 by Mau

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

Yikes. If it it's flopping even in markets where things are back to normal (China, SK), than it's clear that interest was never there for this one. I wonder if it would pull a The Good Dinosaur if it weren't for the pandemic.

[SLAM!]

"Welp, I guess our next film has to lean closer to what general audiences want." - Disney

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, SLAM! said:

"Welp, I guess our next film has to lean closer to what general audiences want." - Disney

“Welp, it’s a good thing King Kevin wouldn’t let us release BW to hybrid.” -Disney 

[DAJK]

28 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Yikes. If it it's flopping even in markets where things are back to normal (China, SK), than it's clear that interest was never there for this one. I wonder if it would pull a The Good Dinosaur if it weren't for the pandemic.

Maybe. Action-oriented animation never does as well as musicals or comedy.

[Fullbuster]

People talking about a flop for a movie that isn't even out yet, how laughable, always in a drama mood because some people just can't manage their emotions or have no patience. Drama queens pretty much? 🙄

 

Relax, wait for the actual release, let people realize it's there, allow WOM to spread and we'll assess  whether it's successful or not.

I know, this message won't be liked because wisdom is kinda booed these days but I don't care, truth matters.

 

 

 

[lorddemaxus]

6 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

People talking about a flop for a movie that isn't even out yet, how laughable, always in a drama mood because some people just can't manage their emotions or have no patience. Drama queens pretty much? 🙄

 

Relax, wait for the actual release, let people realize it's there, allow WOM to spread and we'll assess  whether it's successful or not.

I know, this message won't be liked because wisdom is kinda booed these days but I don't care, truth matters.

 

 

 

The irony of you telling others to relax here lmao.

Edited March 4, 2021 by lorddemaxus

[Menor the Destroyer]

52 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

People talking about a flop for a movie that isn't even out yet, how laughable, always in a drama mood because some people just can't manage their emotions or have no patience. Drama queens pretty much? 🙄

 

Relax, wait for the actual release, let people realize it's there, allow WOM to spread and we'll assess  whether it's successful or not.

I know, this message won't be liked because wisdom is kinda booed these days but I don't care, truth matters.

 

 

 

A big part of this forum is using presales and early performances to see where a film is headed. It's not being a "drama queen" to accurately describe the numbers so far. Nobody is saying it's impossible for things to change but when you start very low the climb ahead becomes much harder. And btw this movie is factually already out. I also am rooting for this to do well, but the numbers are what they are. 

Edited March 4, 2021 by Menor

[SpiderByte]

I mean everyone thought Mulan was a bomb but if that was the case why bother doing it with Raya

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

3 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

I mean everyone thought Mulan was a bomb but if that was the case why bother doing it with Raya

Except that they didn't do the same thing at all. 

[TwoMisfits]

Can I also mention one more idiocy by Disney on this release (other than what I mentioned).

 

Wandavision is going HUGE now.  It's damn finale is opening night DOM.  Who thought that was a good idea?  (Almost) Everyone is gonna be glued to their tv Friday, not in a movie theater, if you're a Disney product fan.

 

I mean, you have an empty week the next Friday for Marvel shows, which also would have given 2 weeks from TJ and a week after the other Asian demo release...who couldn't add all those things up and pick the better release weekend?  I mean, maybe it still flops DOM, but still...

[SpiderByte]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

glued to their tv Friday, not in a movie theater, if you're a Disney product fan.

...you mean on the service Raya will be on at the exact same time?

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, SpiderByte said:

...you mean on the service Raya will be on at the exact same time?

Yeah, so WHY PAY $30 on Friday night when you're watching the best product FREE?:)

[Cooper Legion]

39 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

People talking about a flop for a movie that isn't even out yet, how laughable, always in a drama mood because some people just can't manage their emotions or have no patience. Drama queens pretty much? 🙄

 

Relax, wait for the actual release, let people realize it's there, allow WOM to spread and we'll assess  whether it's successful or not.

I know, this message won't be liked because wisdom is kinda booed these days but I don't care, truth matters.

 

 

 

I’m usually on your side fullbuster but this is unnecessarily condescending and kind of ignoring the facts. We have OD numbers and PS numbers for a lot of the important markets. We don’t need to wait to see whether it opens awfully, we’ve already seen that it is opening awfully.   
 

Yes, let’s wait for legs to get a more clear picture, and I hope they’re good, but legs can only do so much from super low openings.

[Curtis1986]

It also does not help that Tom and Jerry seems to be a WOM hit with kids and still going strong.

[DAJK]

54 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

People talking about a flop for a movie that isn't even out yet, how laughable, always in a drama mood because some people just can't manage their emotions or have no patience. Drama queens pretty much? 🙄

 

Relax, wait for the actual release, let people realize it's there, allow WOM to spread and we'll assess  whether it's successful or not.

I know, this message won't be liked because wisdom is kinda booed these days but I don't care, truth matters.

 

 

 

So... a group of adults who have had no box office to talk about over the last year start to discuss the possibility that we may have been looking at this wrong ever since T&J's opening is suddenly a case of "not being able to manage our emotions"? Oh the irony, this is straight-up laughable.

 

I'm not saying that Raya's gonna go sub-10M or anything. None of us know what it's going to do! That's the point of discussion! I know you want to be part of some echo chamber, and that for some reason anything that conflicts with your desired narrative bothers you. But you really need to grow up.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

So... a group of adults who have had no box office to talk about over the last year start to discuss the possibility that we may have been looking at this wrong ever since T&J's opening is suddenly a case of "not being able to manage our emotions"? Oh the irony, this is straight-up laughable.

 

I'm not saying that Raya's gonna go sub-10M or anything. None of us know what it's going to do! That's the point of discussion! I know you want to be part of some echo chamber, and that for some reason anything that conflicts with your desired narrative bothers you. But you really need to grow up.

 

I have...and I will:).  But I know I'm the outlier all week:)...

[DAJK]

41 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I have...and I will:).  But I know I'm the outlier all week:)...

There's a chance it does for sure, but I wouldn't say it's an absolute certainty or anything. Because the whole point is that we don't know, and all we can do for now is speculate.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Yeah no denying the early OS results are not very encouraging but hopefully any good WOM will allow the movie to play over a long time seemingly there will be little competition for a while after.

 

It is a shame though that for Pixar and Disney Animation that it had to be all their original films that got affected by the pandemic. It shouldn't and I don't think will but hope it doesn't affect their thinking to make original films.