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Eric is Full of Pride

Raya and the Last Dragon | March 5, 2021 | Premier Access/Theater simultaneous release

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Numbers aren't good and that's a fact. Can they improve? Maybe, maybe not. 

 

Anyway, my kids want to see Tom & Jerry and this movie tomorrow. Gonna be a very long day...

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2 hours ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Yeah no denying the early OS results are not very encouraging but hopefully any good WOM will allow the movie to play over a long time seemingly there will be little competition for a while after.

 

It is a shame though that for Pixar and Disney Animation that it had to be all their original films that got affected by the pandemic. It shouldn't and I don't think will but hope it doesn't affect their thinking to make original films.

I just hope Luca overperforms (for pandemic times) 

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7 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I have...and I will:).  But I know I'm the outlier all week:)...

.A̶c̶t̶u̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶I̶ ̶k̶n̶o̶w̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶v̶e̶r̶y̶ ̶s̶m̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶s̶a̶m̶p̶l̶e̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶w̶e̶ ̶̶

don't have ̶m̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶i̶d̶e̶a̶ ̶h̶o̶w̶ ̶i̶t̶s̶ ̶g̶o̶n̶n̶a̶ ̶w̶o̶r̶k̶ ̶b̶u̶t̶ ̶E̶r̶i̶cs̶ ̶P̶h̶i̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶n̶u̶m̶b̶e̶r̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶q̶u̶i̶t̶e̶ ̶g̶o̶o̶d̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶m̶a̶y̶ ̶s̶u̶g̶g̶e̶s̶t̶ ̶$̶3̶M̶ ̶r̶a̶n̶g̶e̶ ̶O̶D̶.̶ ̶$̶1̶0̶M̶ ̶w̶e̶e̶k̶e̶n̶d̶ ̶m̶a̶y̶ ̶h̶a̶p̶p̶e̶n̶

Edited by jatvision
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1 minute ago, jatvision said:

Actually I know they are very small sample and we don't have much idea how it's gonna work but Eric's Philly number are quite good and may suggest $3M range OD. $10M weekend may happen.

Wouldn't set expectations based on that, we don't know how theater count/potentially less walk-ups may affect things.

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I think this would have done Coco numbers or so in normal times. So maybe a 13/50 run during a pandemic isn't the most surprising.

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1 hour ago, jatvision said:

.A̶c̶t̶u̶a̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶I̶ ̶k̶n̶o̶w̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶y̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶v̶e̶r̶y̶ ̶s̶m̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶s̶a̶m̶p̶l̶e̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶w̶e̶ ̶̶

don't have ̶m̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶i̶d̶e̶a̶ ̶h̶o̶w̶ ̶i̶t̶s̶ ̶g̶o̶n̶n̶a̶ ̶w̶o̶r̶k̶ ̶b̶u̶t̶ ̶E̶r̶i̶cs̶ ̶P̶h̶i̶l̶l̶y̶ ̶n̶u̶m̶b̶e̶r̶ ̶a̶r̶e̶ ̶q̶u̶i̶t̶e̶ ̶g̶o̶o̶d̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶m̶a̶y̶ ̶s̶u̶g̶g̶e̶s̶t̶ ̶$̶3̶M̶ ̶r̶a̶n̶g̶e̶ ̶O̶D̶.̶ ̶$̶1̶0̶M̶ ̶w̶e̶e̶k̶e̶n̶d̶ ̶m̶a̶y̶ ̶h̶a̶p̶p̶e̶n̶

 

Yeah, I saw those, but I'm sticking anyway:)...I figure Disney fans prebuy more than T&J fans:).

 

Plus, where's the fun in changing one's mind before weekend numbers when everyone else had $14M (aka over TJ) as the floor on Monday:)...

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4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Plus, where's the fun in changing one's mind before weekend numbers when everyone else had $14M (aka over TJ) as the floor on Monday:)...

Yeah as I said in that thread, personally I would assume that T&J movie will open bigger than a Disney animation original but BoT and Google Trends were saying Raya has a bigger buzz, so not that surprising that people were expecting it to open $14M+.

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9 minutes ago, jatvision said:

Yeah as I said in that thread, personally I would assume that T&J movie will open bigger than a Disney animation original but BoT and Google Trends were saying Raya has a bigger buzz, so not that surprising that people were expecting it to open $14M+.

If it does go under T&J for DOM OW, I wonder what the big miss was?  Is it a movie that skews into women 25+ being the "motivated seer" that gets rejected in total as a Covid era theatrical release?  Is it the ads skewing it into seeming for older kids or a more narrow kid age set?  Is it a terrible Disney marketing campaign and dating strategy?  Is it a terrible Disney release strategy - make it hard to see in theaters and expensive to see at home and get negative press about both?  Is it that so many domestic folks have D+ that they will pay or wait? 

 

But, it's too early to say in any way - it has a lot of time this weekend to turn the open into at least a small positive (like double digits)...so let's see how the late breaking buyers (and whatever walk ups) go...maybe it can still get to $15M+- that would be a definite win, especially for the overall DOM market, b/c that would guarantee a $20M+ Top 10 DOM weekend (and possibly get us to $30M DOM or more)...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

I wonder what the big miss was?

I simply think T&J is relatively bigger IP and has much more buzz. T&J opening isn't just better in USA, almost everywhere it's ahead of Raya.

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34 minutes ago, jatvision said:

I simply think T&J is relatively bigger IP and has much more buzz. T&J opening isn't just better in USA, almost everywhere it's ahead of Raya.

Yeah, I saw that in the International thread...but the thing is, it's not a good movie...and it's free...

 

I mean, being 1st helped...and being more known, especially cross generations, helped...being available at any theater (even discount) that would show them helped...and I guess one thing it did was scream that it's "kid, kid, kid, family, family, family" in big, bright lights during marketing:)...nothing deep, nothing thought-provoking, nothing but fluff...maybe that was the right zeitgeist for right now...

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2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

If it does go under T&J for DOM OW, I wonder what the big miss was?  

I know that for my younger cousins, it would be the lack of songs and good marketed comedy. 

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Funny how you all are saying Raya's poor numbers might be due to it not being "kid-friendly" enough, because I had the opposite issue with it. As a disclaimer, I don't have a problem with kids' movies per se. But with Raya, I felt like there was a lot of missed opportunity. In another forum I wrote that it looked like "what you would get if you squeezed the square peg of Avatar: The Last Airbender into the round hole of the Disney animated movie formula", and I still stand by that statement. It feels like it had the potential to be a much more serious, epic, and dramatic movie, but because of who was making it, so many elements were added (Awkwafina dragon, con-artist baby, cheesy one-liners) that it basically had its teeth pulled out. 

 

 

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13 hours ago, DAJK said:

Maybe. Action-oriented animation never does as well as musicals or comedy.

That's always been the conventional wisdom, but the success of Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse does seriously call it into question.

 

As for Raya itself, the "action-movie" aspects were mostly played up by the early trailers. The later trailers, however, made it out to be a more generic "kid's" movie, complete with one-liners and fart jokes. The same thing actually happened with both Big Hero 6 and Moana. Their early trailers suggested they were more dramatic and action-oriented than they actually were, and the later trailers gave a more accurate depiction of the movie's tone. Frozen did the opposite--its first trailer made it out to be a goofy comedy, and only later did the advertising reveal it to be a musical with a fairly serious plot. 

It's kind of a shame, honestly. I wish Disney would actually stick to its guns for once and make the sort of movie that the initial trailers look like they're going to be. That first trailer for Raya took my breath away, and the later ones with the wisecracking dragon voiced by Awkwafina just feel like a mockery of what could have been. 

Edited by El Squibbonator
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12 minutes ago, El Squibbonator said:

That's always been the conventional wisdom, but the success of Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse does seriously call it into question.

 

As for Raya itself, the "action-movie" aspects were mostly played up by the early trailers. The later trailers, however, made it out to be a more generic "kid's" movie, complete with one-liners and fart jokes. The same thing actually happened with both Big Hero 6 and Moana. Their early trailers suggested they were more dramatic and action-oriented than they actually were, and the later trailers gave a more accurate depiction of the movie's tone. Frozen did the opposite--its first trailer made it out to be a goofy comedy, and only later did the advertising reveal it to be a musical with a fairly serious plot. 

It's kind of a shame, honestly. I wish Disney would actually stick to its guns for once and make the sort of movie that the initial trailers look like they're going to be. That first trailer for Raya took my breath away, and the later ones with the wisecracking dragon voiced by Awkwafina just feel like a mockery of what could have been. 

I think DAJK was referring to box office performance and Spider-Verse did less than $400m which puts it well outside the top 50 animated film of all time.

Edited by Jamiem
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True, but its budget was only about half that of a comparable Disney film, so it pretty much evens out. I was under the impression he meant that such movies were never successful, which might have been true 10 years ago, but not anymore.

 

Back on topic, Raya's poor performance, combined with that of Onward, has me concerned about Luca and Encanto. Unless people really start heading back to theaters this year, this is going to be a tough time for Disney and Pixar no matter what kind of movies they make. 

Edited by El Squibbonator
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1 minute ago, El Squibbonator said:

True, but its budget was only about half that of a comparable Disney film, so it pretty much evens out. I was under the impression he meant that such movies were never successful, which might have been true 10 years ago, but not anymore. But we're getting off topic. 

His wording is not as successful not never successful. Minions had a similar budget and made over $1B so id say he's right. 

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36 minutes ago, El Squibbonator said:

That's always been the conventional wisdom, but the success of Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse does seriously call it into question.

 

As for Raya itself, the "action-movie" aspects were mostly played up by the early trailers. The later trailers, however, made it out to be a more generic "kid's" movie, complete with one-liners and fart jokes. The same thing actually happened with both Big Hero 6 and Moana. Their early trailers suggested they were more dramatic and action-oriented than they actually were, and the later trailers gave a more accurate depiction of the movie's tone. Frozen did the opposite--its first trailer made it out to be a goofy comedy, and only later did the advertising reveal it to be a musical with a fairly serious plot. 

I don't really think that was the case with Big Hero 6 and Moana's early trailers. Big Hero 6's teaser is literally just a montage of Hiro struggling to put on Baymax's armour that's played for laughs, while Moana's arguably played up the musical aspects of the film more, while introducing Maui.

I was going to say Zootopia hued closest since it's teaser sort of laid the groundwork for the main premise (even if it made Nick look more like the main character), but then I remembered the sloth trailer exist, so maybe not.

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The first 20 minutes of Raya are exceptional, visually it is stunning right up there with Soul for holy shit visuals, colours and lighting.

 

Action is great and I'm actually getting some heavy Princess Mononoke vibes from the film so far (as well as ATLA which was obvious from the trailer), will likely watch the rest of it tomorrow as I'm starting to get tired and want to give it my full attention. 

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