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Eric Atreides

Raya and the Last Dragon | March 5, 2021 | Premier Access/Theater simultaneous release

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2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Feige smiling: See, little Bob? No way my movies are gonna go Disney+

 

More like: Damn, thankfully we had Disney+ because if we had to rely on theaters we'd be in a horrible situation.

 

I'd be Chapek, I'd make it know to Feige right away!

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Hard to judge what metrics Disney is using with PA but one some level they must have been ok with Mulan's result on some level to try again. 

 

I don't think anyone will deny it's a BO flop or even bomb. Idk what Disney takes out of it while Raya is an original IP it does have the Disney Animation brand behind it which has been very successful in the last decade. 

 

Hopefully they bounce back with Encanto later this year. 

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3 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:

Feige smiling: See, little Bob? No way my movies are gonna go Disney+

I still think Widow's going hybrid in one capacity or another for the U.S., rather than another delay.  But we'll see what happens.  Either way, it will be on Disney+ within 90 days or less, anyway...perhaps even 45 days.  

 

It's surely a struggling conversation internally whether Disney/Marvel want to "preserve assets" or whether they want to gamble on being the first one out of the gate (this year) to really get audiences back to theaters in a big way.  We'll probably know within the next week or two. 

 

On the subject of the thread... wow, Tran just can't catch a break... but it sounds like exhibitors saw enough from RAYA and booked their theatres accordingly...which is interesting.  It's definitely being rejected across regions.   

Edited by Macleod
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2 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Hard to judge what metrics Disney is using with PA but one some level they must have been ok with Mulan's result on some level to try again. 

 

I don't think anyone will deny it's a BO flop or even bomb. Idk what Disney takes out of it while Raya is an original IP it does have the Disney Animation brand behind it which has been very successful in the last decade. 

 

Hopefully they bounce back with Encanto later this year. 

 

They will probably think there is a pandemic and that there's no particular lesson to be learned as it's a particular context.

 

And they'd be right.

 

 

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After seen the movie (which is fantastic btw) i´m convinced they really messed up the marketing.

 

The movie is very complex, there´s much happening, so i understand it´s probably hard to sell it... but the trailers really didn´t make justice to the movie. Despite the movie being beautiful and funny, all the trailers gave a generic impression, they should work harder on their campaign.

 

I hope this movie finds justice like Onward on D+, it really deserves it. And i also hope the disappointing numbers show to Disney that they must be more creative to sell an original IP, and that they can´t keep pushing theaters and getting a boycott back.

 

Also, the PA price is absurd, if they want to keep this model they should just do it for $20, it´s the second time people get angry with their price.

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For the rest of the year, i doubt they will do this hybrid model again.

 

They obviously will start working with smaller windows on theaters (like all the studios), but i bet BW will go only theatrical first.

 

My only doubts are Cruella and Luca, it doesn´t look like a delay is happening. Maybe they can put it on D+ for free like they did with Soul and that movie smash, or with a lowered price.

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6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

After seen the movie (which is fantastic btw) i´m convinced they really messed up the marketing.

 

The movie is very complex, there´s much happening, so i understand it´s probably hard to sell it... but the trailers really didn´t make justice to the movie. Despite the movie being beautiful and funny, all the trailers gave a generic impression, they should work harder on their campaign.

 

I hope this movie finds justice like Onward on D+, it really deserves it. And i also hope the disappointing numbers show to Disney that they must be more creative to sell an original IP, and that they can´t keep pushing theaters and getting a boycott back.

 

Also, the PA price is absurd, if they want to keep this model they should just do it for $20, it´s the second time people get angry with their price.

Disney should really take 5% of the PVOD revenue and put it in a fund to split with every worldwide theater that shows their movie.  Get theaters hyped to push the movie every way possible, instead of figuring they are selling a movie that Disney's gonna pocket all the real funds on.

 

That might make theaters willing to go for the 50/50, if they thought they were also partnering on the most lucrative piece.

 

This is all ala Universal, who I think piecemealed the PVOD split 1% at a time to each major theater chain (at least DOM)...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

You did said if this was Max release tone will be different.

 

That's the reason for different tone. 

 

Just to reiterate, Raya is a BOXOFFICE FLOP just like WW84, T&J, etc. Overall, it may not be losing as much as WW84.

Subscriber numbers is not the reason for the different tone. That makes no sense. You know as well as everyone else here that if this was a WB release, the response from the usual suspects on here would be different. 
 

Raya hasn’t reached the same level of audience as WW84 or even Tom & Jerry. Raya is even a pandemic flop. 

Edited by Krissykins
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12 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Subscriber numbers is not the reason for the different tone. That makes no sense. You know as well as everyone else here that if this was a WB release, the response from the usual suspects on here would be different. 
 

Raya hasn’t reached the same level of audience as WW84 or even Tom & Jerry. Raya is even a pandemic flop. 

For obvious reasons discourse would be different around WW84 and Raya since WW84 was a sequel to a $400 million dollar domestic hit. Tom and Jerry's opening weekend actually did have a much better response on the forum than Raya's, so I'm not sure what you're talking about in that regard. 

Edited by Menor
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4 minutes ago, Menor said:

For obvious reasons discourse would be different around WW84 and Raya since WW84 was a sequel to a $400 million dollar domestic hit. Tom and Jerry's opening weekend actually did have a much better response on the forum than Raya's, so I'm not sure what you're talking about in that regard. 

I think Krissykins is saying that there were very few voices contextualizing WW84’s performance at the Box office even though less than 40% of theaters were opened when it was released. And those that were opened had limited capacity as they do now. Not to mention Europe was completely closed, South Korea was partially closed and major US cities were mostly closed. People just kept harping on it’s disappointing performance in China to claim it was a flop. I don’t think anything flopped during this crisis that is still so prevalent. Even when some of us tried to bring context into it, some were not having it. I am not here to pile on Raya. It was a good movie and like I said, we are in a pandemic. Nevertheless, it’s clear that some were not consistent in their analysis. Thankfully, I think people are doing a better job analyzing and contextualizing Raya’s box office performance so far. 

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1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Subscriber numbers is not the reason for the different tone. That makes no sense. You know as well as everyone else here that if this was a WB release, the response from the usual suspects on here would be different. 
 

Raya hasn’t reached the same level of audience as WW84 or even Tom & Jerry. Raya is even a pandemic flop. 

The subscriber numbers are an important part of the different tone. A larger base for the service takes a larger bite out of a hybrid release.   
 

But even still this is pretty bad and I haven’t seen many people say otherwise so I’m not really sure what the “whaa, Disney favoritism” brigade is on about to begin with.

Edited by WandaLegion
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20 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

The subscriber numbers are an important part of the different tone. A larger base for the service takes a larger bite out of a hybrid release.   
 

But even still this is pretty bad and I haven’t seen many people say otherwise so I’m not really sure what the “whaa, Disney favoritism” brigade is on about to begin with.

It's actually really funny because speaking as somebody whose job is to check threads daily and moderate activity, I can only think of a couple people who eagerly love to dogpile WB/HBO Max/whatever. If anything, there's legions of people whose entire personality seems to just be "Disney bad". Anytime a Disney movie underperforms even slightly, the knives are out against them and threads sometimes go on and on about whether it's ethical to watch a Lion King remake or whatever in theaters. It's even weirder still since a lot of people were championing Tom and Jerry's opening, almost as if people here...like seeing good box office numbers regardless the studio.

 

Really, the Raya dogpiling that's been happening (and yes, it's happening way more than any championing or defensiveness that people pretend to act is going on) is sadly par for the course, both for a low opener and a Disney release. Not sure why WB stans/"Disney bad" personality types are acting as if one or two defenses from randos means the majority are acting like the movie's a smash success, but they seem to get angry whenever somebody mildly critiques a DC movie's box office or just...does their job as a reporter, so I guess that's to be expected. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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I've been going back and forth on whether I want to pay for Premier Access (college student on a budget lol) but given the reactions I've seen for this, and the fact that theaters where I live probably won't be open for a while, maybe I can shell out some of my movie money tonight if I'm able to finish my school work on time.

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Just now, Eric and the Last Dragon said:

It's actually really funny because speaking as somebody whose job is to check threads daily and moderate activity, I can only think of a couple people who eagerly love to dogpile WB/HBO Max/whatever. If anything, there's legions of people whose entire personality seems to just be "Disney bad". Anytime a Disney movie underperforms even slightly, the knives are out against them and threads sometimes go on and on about whether it's ethical to watch a Lion King remake or whatever in theaters. It's even weirder still since a lot of people were championing Tom and Jerry's opening, almost as if people here...like seeing good box office numbers regardless the studio.

 

Really, the Raya dogpiling that's been happening (and yes, it's happening way more than any championing or defensiveness that people pretend to act is going on) is sadly par for the course, both for a low opener and a Disney release. Not sure why WB stans/"Disney bad" personality types are acting as if one or two defenses from randos means the majority are acting like the movie's a smash success, but they seem to get angry whenever somebody mildly critiques a DC movie's box office or just...does their job as a reporter, so I guess that's to be expected. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I know you weren't talking about me but I just want to add that I'm a Disney bad person (often) but that's only because of my experiences with them as a manager at a movie theater. I don't get mad when someone critiques a DC movie's box office or anything (I'm not even a real big DC fan or anything) but it's just nice sometimes to see the bully take a hit once in a while :lol: It's a shame it's coming at the cost of what seems like is a great movie, but alas.

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7 hours ago, Krissykins said:

 

Raya hasn’t reached the same level of audience as WW84 or even Tom & Jerry. Raya is even a pandemic flop. 

Actually Raya may be beating WW84 numbers internationally in real terms. It will not be releasing in markets WW84 did $25m worth and is unlikely to do $23M in ANZ (well thanks the Summer + Christmas + New Year holidays). 

 

That leaves $69M OS-ANZ, Raya is looking to perhaps do that much.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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