Jump to content
Dear Eric Hansen

Raya and the Last Dragon | March 5, 2021 | Premier Access/Theater simultaneous release

Recommended Posts

15 hours ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

Guys I think your calculation is way off.

 

Raya cost 100-150 mil. on production budget, plus 150 on global P&A (most of it for China/Japan where tv spots are very expensive); to break even it would likely take 2,5x its production budget, which would mean a 250 mil profit if said budget =100 mil, or 375 mil. if the budget is 150 mil.

 

Even at the lowest possible budget, 100 mil, there is no way this doesn't loose north of 50 mil. 

 

If the overseas box office gathers 75 mil, disney gets about 30 mil (35% approx, given that it only takes 25 % out Of China and 40% out of most of the others countries).

Then, there is USA, where the run could end at 50 mil; in that case, the B.O. income for Disney would be about 30 mil.

 

So we have 60 mil. net income from B.O. : let's say it earns 100 mil. from D+, we are at 160 mil. total income. It needs 250 to break even, so there is a 90 mil. loss.

 

If the production budget is in the 150's millions, then its loss coul be 375-160 = 215 mil, aka the biggest box office bomb ever.

 

How on earth can it break even? there is literally no mathematical way.

I think your calculation is a bit off, 100-150 is a limited range for a giant disney production and 150 WW P&A seem like a lot, movie release in China are among the cheapest in the world I think, that why the net return is pretty much similar to the others market, despite a 25% of the gross deal.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Barnack said:

I think your calculation is a bit off, 100-150 is a limited range for a giant disney production and 150 WW P&A seem like a lot, movie release in China are among the cheapest in the world I think, that why the net return is pretty much similar to the others market, despite a 25% of the gross deal.

I based my calculation on the one Deadline made for Moana https://deadline.com/2017/03/moana-box-office-profit-2016-1202050505/

 

Production budget for Moana was estimated in 150 mil. and I can't see Raya costing more than that. On the Other Hand, P&A for Moana was 135 milion, without taking into account Domestic P&A.

 

Given that we are in a pandemic and that the movie didn't release in many countries, the figure could be lower, but 4 years and inflaction probably made the expense in countries like China and Japan way higher. Anyway, if we take the P&A down to 90 milions and the production budget up to 140 milion, my calculation still stands the same.

 

And considering Moana's total costs (including home sales) were 375 m. according to deadline, I can't see Raya's under 300, a sum that it will never gain from B.O. + Disney plus premium + home video.

 

Raya will surely be a loss for Disney, at least in the short run.  It remains to be seen just how big of a bomb it will be...my guess is it will loose about 100 mil, making it one of the biggest flops of the decade.

Edited by ThePrinceIsOnFire
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

I based my calculation on the one Deadline made for Moana https://deadline.com/2017/03/moana-box-office-profit-2016-1202050505/

 

Production budget for Moana was estimated in 150 mil. and I can't see Raya costing more than that. On the Other Hand, P&A for Moana was 135 milion, without taking into account Domestic P&A.

 

Given that we are in a pandemic and that the movie didn't release in many countries, the figure could be lower, but 4 years and inflaction probably made the expense in countries like China and Japan way higher. Anyway, if we take the P&A down to 90 milions and the production budget up to 140 milion, my calculation still stands the same.

Deadline budget and talent compensation estimate are really rough estimate, Raya probably didn't cost more than a 5 year's project with huge rush to fix issues starring Dwayne Johnson movie like Moana, but Moana can easily have been over 200M.

 

Some ways to have some feel of those movie budget is look at the list of Disney own incorporation using the address they use for most of them:

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/search/companies?q=3+Queen+Caroline+Street,+Hammersmith,+London,+United+Kingdom,+W6+9PE+59111+-+Motion+picture+production+activities&page=2

 

Using the date (relative to when the project would have been greenlight) and the name (they tend to make some reference in a geek way, a Dumbo character, the address of a character or be very direct). for example something called Magic Lamp Production created in 2015:

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/09359156/filing-history?page=2

 

Could be the Aladdin movie (Ritchie was announced late 2016 has the director)

 

Medici:

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/09227447

Is probably the Dumbo remake.

 

Pym particles:

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/07503881

 

AntMan, the spending pattern also match the long development phase then the production then the participation bonus after release. It can give you a feel and more directly if we wanted to find Raya we probably could.

 

Has for China and Japan cost of release, historically China was almost free in exchange of that low return to make it an interesting overall package, i.e studio were getting around 21% of the gross of a Chinese theatrical release which is exactly in line even above their international average, while Japan was almost like the domestic market, near 50% of the gross doing to the studio, large after theatrical market but costly release. I have no idea what the releasing cost of a D+, theatrical split is, so I cannot comment to much but I feel that 90M you advanced could be in the good ballpark.

Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s amazing how good the artist and character animators at Disney have gotten since tangled.People always accuse them of repeating their character designs without even noticing how refined and believable these characters have become since then.I mean we’re at a point where the character “Raya” is frame by frame almost as consistently beautiful as a glen keane drawing, not to mention the subtleties the animators are able to achieve with the acting today.(even though I still think tangled surpasses a majority of animated films in that department till today.)

Edited by Melosh
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

"Following the successful release of “Raya and The Last Dragon,”

 

 

 

 

 

People who denied my reaosoning here were wrong, it's official. Not a coincidence Cruella and now Black Widow go Premier Access, Disney is clear.

 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Fullbuster said:

"Following the successful release of “Raya and The Last Dragon,”

 

 

 

 

 

People who denied my reaosoning here were wrong, it's official. Not a coincidence Cruella and now Black Widow go Premier Access, Disney is clear.

 

 

 

 

Disney is playing a bad hand badly...most of their decisions this year wreak of indecision and throwing stuff at the wall...they seem most focused on trying to find a winning strategy and continually missing.  

 

If their strategy was any good, they'd release firm numbers, like they finally did for Falcon and the Winter Soldier - actual buys, actual viewers, actual revenue streams...but for now, they aren't doing that, so all their decisions are PR meant to try to justify the past ones and support the future ones, but no indication they are actually working better than any other strategy, like Universal's or WB's....

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

Disney is playing a bad hand badly...most of their decisions this year wreak of indecision and throwing stuff at the wall...they seem most focused on trying to find a winning strategy and continually missing.  

 

If their strategy was any good, they'd release firm numbers, like they finally did for Falcon and the Winter Soldier - actual buys, actual viewers, actual revenue streams...but for now, they aren't doing that, so all their decisions are PR meant to try to justify the past ones and support the future ones, but no indication they are actually working better than any other strategy, like Universal's or WB's....

 

Feels like a rant from someone who is bitter, quite frankly...not a good look 😕

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Feels like a rant from someone who is bitter, quite frankly...not a good look 😕

 


As opposed to a blind sycophant? 😉

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

"Following the successful release of “Raya and The Last Dragon,”

 

 

 

 

 

People who denied my reaosoning here were wrong, it's official. Not a coincidence Cruella and now Black Widow go Premier Access, Disney is clear.

 

 

 

C'mon on, that's PR speak at its finest.  Or, worst depending on how one wants to view it.  Hardly much of a sign either way.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

C'mon on, that's PR speak at its finest.  Or, worst depending on how one wants to view it.  Hardly much of a sign either way.

 

If it was just a sentence with nothing else I'd agree but when they follow suit with making 2 of their following releases, one of them being THE big one, premiere access it feels legit...When it's bad you don't go on and on, particularly when it's experimental....it means that, one way or another, they liked what they saw.

Edited by Fullbuster
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Today doesn't prove that this did great. 
 

But I would say yeah, it does prove that it didn’t do bad. If they just made Cruella PA, or kept BW in May/June and made them both PA, I’d say “maybe it sucked but they’re still experimenting, hard choices when releasing in a pandemic.” But when you take one of your biggest movies of the year, and then go PA rather than pure theatrical in freaking July — well, they’re still experimenting, but if Raya had gone terrible for them they probably wouldn’t be running it back exactly the same.

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Today doesn't prove that this did great. 

If you want my cynical opinion, the success of Marvel Studio: Legends signals to Disney that their golden ticket is pushing Marvel content to D+ as much as humanly possible.

 

*people point out Luca going to D+*

 

HEY, I SAID IT WAS A CYNICAL OPINION. AL'LIGHT? j1aUlyv.gif

 

whispers quietly: Soul kicked unholy amount of ass on D+'s trending list, you know.:ph34r:

Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Today doesn't prove that this did great. 
 

But I would say yeah, it does prove that it didn’t do bad. If they just made Cruella PA, or kept BW in May/June and made them both PA, I’d say “maybe it sucked but they’re still experimenting, hard choices when releasing in a pandemic.” But when you take one of your biggest movies of the year, and then go PA rather than pure theatrical in freaking July — well, they’re still experimenting, but if Raya had gone terrible for them they probably wouldn’t be running it back exactly the same.

Yep. I don't think anyones under the impression Raya is a hit on par with, say, Hamilton, but you don't make a move like this for the highest profile release of the year for the company if it's an abject failure. If it were they would have just delayed it and maybe just have had Cruella on Premiere Access.

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.




×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.