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Labor Day Weekend Thread: Don't Let Go 150K Previews

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8 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I am still in the 70-75M OW train for IT 2. Never left it. 

Yea tbh I'm kinda close to getting there. If someone started a club I'd probably join it.

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1 hour ago, Minnale101 said:

So Spider-Man extension didn’t bomb out due to the Spider-Man leaving mcu news lol

 

Ofc it didn’t Spider-Man his own brand and big without it 

 

I think this is the wrong thing to use as a gauge tbh. And there's nothing to say what it would have done if this news hadn't happened. The movie's already been made and seen by most people. The best temperature is the air leading up to the next one (assuming it doesn't return to the MCU) and after the trailers for that. Spider-man always makes some money though, even the worst ones. Question is, what would they have done financially if people loved the bad ones more?

Edited by thedast

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The lack of hype for It 2 (Anecdotal! Could be wrong! Don't Winona me Kenny/Horror of Lucas Films) is probably one of the most confusing for a sequel in a long while. Grindelwald and Pets I was able to see about a month or so before release, and in hindsight I could have seen the signs even a couple years ago. I called Dark Phoenix to bomb spectacularly for a couple years. But this has just about everything going for it, and...no one in my social circle's really talking about it?

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“Sequels to a breakout usually regress to the mean” is such a basic dynamic, but also oddly easy to forget.

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Holy Fuck I just saw the Friday numbers.

 

This is the worst thing ever.

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52 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I don't remember the last immediate, two years later sequel to a major blockbuster that had less hype than It 2. Yes, obviously a hurricane is impact South Florida this weekend and nobody is talking about movies - but this is weeks of (anecdotal!) evidence from comparing my social media feeds and my friends to last time around. But buzz feels.....very slight right now, compared to the massive trailer views and the memes and the buzz around the first one. Thinking under 100m OW frankly. The first one really had a big novelty factor.

The first IT opened as Hurricane Irma was about to destroy Florida that weekend and still opened to $120M+ (and would've likely opened closer to $130M had a portion of theaters not been shut down that weekend). I think the first movie just really overperformed and was the right movie at the right time in the end. It was riding not only the popularity of the book and miniseries but also that of Stranger Things/80s kid nostalgia, not to mention the clown craze the year before (which a lot of people thought actually was a publicity stunt for the movie). None of that is present this time around and so it probably shouldn't be much of a surprise that this one's looking to come back down to Earth.

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IT 2017 had crazy marketing starting off in the spring of 2017. The posters with missing kids, the insane trailers that summer, and crazy tv spots everywhere. 

 

The sequel doesn’t have that going for it. It’s just the brand this time around. And that’s not great in marketing land. 

 

The rest of September looks to be solid though.I think Hustlers could be JLo’s first hit in years,  Rambo 5 could do modest, Ad Astra will tank, Goldfinch could pull in some small cash, and Abdominale should do well considering families haven’t had a big animated  film  since Toy Story 4. 

 

However doing a monthly forecast is too hypothetical. Since August we had only three to four films do profitable. While studios have some major flops like The Kitchen, and  Blinded By The Light for example. Then some potential small bombs like Angry Birds 2 which is bombing the states but internationally is making back... but probably not enough to save the film. 

Edited by Maxmoser3

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I don't think Ad Astra will tank. With the glowing reviews it should do 25M OW

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1 hour ago, Eric! said:

The lack of hype for It 2 (Anecdotal! Could be wrong! Don't Winona me Kenny/Horror of Lucas Films) is probably one of the most confusing for a sequel in a long while. Grindelwald and Pets I was able to see about a month or so before release, and in hindsight I could have seen the signs even a couple years ago. I called Dark Phoenix to bomb spectacularly for a couple years. But this has just about everything going for it, and...no one in my social circle's really talking about it?

:rofl:  at what should be BOT's official version of Don't tase me man!

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27 minutes ago, Alli said:

I don't think Ad Astra will tank. With the glowing reviews it should do 25M OW

It’s budget is over $90 million. International markets would help it. Also Fox(minus Disney merger) has been in a rough patch this year minus Breakthough doing profitable. 

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1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said:

That good for Ready Or Not?

It's pretty good tbh. Gonna finish with over $30M, which is above average for a horror/comedy hybrid and a win for Fox Searchlight.

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If It had been a scary movie, we’d be having a very different conversation about Part 2. 

 

I still cant get over that damn Goosebumps TV show design of a house/lair.

Edited by Chaz

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I’m not sure what they were expecting with The Fanatic. I just became aware of it’s existence in the last 3 minutes, read the short synopsis and can’t even be bothered watching the trailer. 

  • Haha 4

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23 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

I’m not sure what they were expecting with The Fanatic. I just became aware of it’s existence in the last 3 minutes, read the short synopsis and can’t even be bothered watching the trailer. 

Same, same, and same

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9 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

That good for Ready Or Not?

budget was 6m and and marketing 25m+, its no hit, similar to Happy Death Day 2U, without international release?

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3 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

budget was 6m and and marketing 25m+, its no hit, similar to Happy Death Day 2U, without international release?

$24m* P&A, according to Deadline’s estimate. 

 

It actually could end up covering its budget and P&A from theatrical grosses alone, once international numbers come in. An achievement most movies this year can’t claim. 

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23 hours ago, sfran43 said:

Ooh! Tell me if it's worth watching, I was thinking of catching it if/when it expands to my area.

I saw it last night and quite enjoyed it. 

Between this and what is supposedly a strong performance in Honey Boy, Shia is back in a very big way this year!

  • Not Cool 1

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@sfran43 peanut butter falcon is one of the three best movies I've seen so far this year. It's charming and endearing superbly acted and has one of the best feel-good scripts that I've seen in quite a while. Thomas Haden Church is a hoot Shia LaBeouf is Oscar Worthy Dakota Johnson is incredible and the lead actor, the guy with down syndrome, is also oscar-worthy. There wasn't one misstep in the movie as far as I'm concerned.

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