IT: CHAPTER TWO WEEKEND THREAD | 91M DOM, 94M OS, 185M WW | Read first post for rules

[Cmasterclay]

I am less concerned about the death of indie/foreign movies happening - A24 is better than ever and studios are still spending big time on aquisitions and investment into indie movies where the idea is to make $15 mill and get good reviews. What is really fading is the mid-sized, adult movies with star power and a solid budget and marketing behind it. This fall, we have Hustlers, Ad Astra, Ford v Ferrari, Just Mercy, and Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood as the movies that hit the boxes of big stars + real marketing campaign + over $20m budget + wide release. So those are the ones I am tracking very closely. Also Last Christmas a studio comedy and, yes, Cats as a studio musical, and Knives Out as an ensemble mystery. I am worried about Disney dominating. But I am even more concerned by a movie like the Irishman, which would have made American Gangster numbers 12 years ago, getting released on Netflix. The worry is when Disney decides to exile Ford v Ferrari or Ad Astra to Disney Plus.

Edited September 7, 2019 by Cmasterclay

[lorddemaxus]

26 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Same reception and hype movie with a 2 hour runtime, clear 400 easy. Problem is that you can’t really make it much shorter and keep the quality.     

 

It 2 170 minutes is  a bit saggy, but Endgame 180 minutes was necessary.

I think both movies could have around 20 minutes cut out.

[The GOAT]

10 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

I know I'm gonna sound like a hater but It 2 - YIKES. Probably the worst movie I've seen in theaters this year outside Godzilla. Too long, not scary, and overdosed on unearned nostalgia and sentimentality. I didn't quite love It 1, but that looks like an Academy Award winner next to this mess.

Have you seen Jordan Peele's "US"?

[Eric Atreides]

3 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I am less concerned about the death of indie/foreign movies happening - A24 is better than ever and studios are still spending big times on aquisitions and investment into indie movies where the idea is to make $15 mill and get good reviews. What is really fading is the mid-sized, adult movies with star power and a solid budget and marketing behind it. This fall, we have Hustlers, Ad Astra, Ford v Ferrari, Just Mercy, and Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood are the movies that hit the boxes of big stars + real marketing campaign + over $20m budget + wide release. So those are the ones I am tracking very closely. Also Last Christmas a studio comedy and, yes, Cats as a studio musical, and Knives Out as an ensemble mystery. I am worried about Disney dominating. But I am even more concerned by a movie like the Irishman, which would have made American Gangster numbers 12 years ago, getting released on Netflix. The worry is when Disney decides to exile Ford v Ferrari or Ad Astra to Disney Plus.

I'm with you on most of that stuff, especially the midbudget adult movie section. But for Irishman, I sincerely doubt people would be eager to spend 3.5 hours seeing a crime drama in theaters back in 2007.

[75Live]

29 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

 

It 2 170 minutes is  a bit saggy, but Endgame 180 minutes was necessary.

 

Disagree with this but I enjoy both movies regardless 

[Justin4125]

My god you guys. There is nothing Disney is doing that other studios arent or cant. They are unbeatable when it comes to building massive, franchiseable IP, and there is nothing nefarious or underhanded about it. You dont have to like Disney, but to malign them at every opportunity or somehow suggest that they have inherent competitive advantages is baseless. Every studio wants and tries to release Disney-like tentpoles (though I really really like the direction some (mainly WB) are taking in carving out their own niches to dominate (horror, adult-oriented, etc). If you take Live Actions out of the equation (a bit of snake eating its own tail situation) Disney is where it is because of its emphasis on talent and story telling. At the end of the day (over the past almost 100 years) those two things are perhaps the most accountable for Disney's success. Disney cuts no corners budget or timeline when it comes to developing their films, and generally profit through years of old fashioned good will and consistency across sequels. It seems like everyone has a problem with Disney, and I hear more about Disney's malicious tactics than I do about any other studio, but its just too much. Clearly Disney's success hits people at an emotional level not an intellectual one

 

Also, can we stop shaming audiences here. Its a lot harder to make a movie that everyone wants to see than some of you are making it seem. Every studio is doing everything it can to accomplish that goal, but audiences are fickle. Iger ushered in a new era of M&A, which when combined with Disney's movie making process, has turned Disney into the goliath we see today. Disney is the industry leader for a reason, and it got there without any advantages or villainous intent. Every studio "weaponizes nostalgia". You dont have to like Disney's movies to accept their current place in the pole position (itll change soon, it always does) but just keep in mind that we are in the midst of an unprecedented year. Without genuine competitive advantages, its only a matter of time before another studio beats Disney at their own game, so no need for Disney conspiracies

 

btw lab276, in my limited experience exhibs love Disney because they more often than not respect the theatrical window and rarely ask for 6 week guarantees (as many other studios do, even for smaller releases). Every studio pressures exhibs on their tentpoles, Disney just has more of them. Ive heard some rumblings, but the word on the exhib street (at least between 2008- 2011) was very positive regarding Disney (in stark contrast to what I read on these kind of forums)

Edited September 7, 2019 by Justin4125

[Jake Gittes]

1 minute ago, RealLyre said:

while you're correct in saying smaller movies don't get as big of an advertising push as bigger movies, that's mostly because they're never expected to bring blockbuster business.

Like I said, vicious circle. And they're never expected to because they don't get that push. And when they do bring blockbuster business - see Get Out, for example - it's more or less seen as a happy accident and while studios may be glad to invest in future Jordan Peele movies, they aren't inclined to go look for people who might be similarly successful with their own personal material. 

 

11 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

you seem to imply that if Disney never pushed the MCU or made all those remakes that suddenly other movies (smaller or not) from other studios would still be as successful as Disney

Not even remotely, but they'd get more breathing room at least, and that's important. I'm not even against the MCU's existence, or against movies making a billion dollars, I'm against the narrowing down of options and the chasing of safety at the expense of variety. A system in which [checks BOM] 500+ movies get theatrically released over 8 months and six of those movies own nearly 40% of all the domestic grosses, and all those movies are basically brand extensions, while more and more name filmmakers are forced to migrate to Netflix, is not a system that's remotely healthy, and this isn't just the business naturally being the business or whatever; Disney is absolutely taking advantage and setting the terms, and its practices actively harm the environment that surrounds it. 

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, Eric! said:

I'm with you on most of that stuff, especially the midbudget adult movie section. But for Irishman, I sincerely doubt people would be eager to spend 3.5 hours seeing a crime drama in theaters back in 2007.

Correct, but I am assuming that it probably would have been cut down to size if it had to be released in theaters. Some people will say that Marty getting to do his full vision is a good thing, and that they're glad Netflix exists to let him do a 3.5 hour movie....but idk, even a genius needs a firm hand sometimes frankly.

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I am less concerned about the death of indie/foreign movies happening - A24 is better than ever and studios are still spending big times on aquisitions and investment into indie movies where the idea is to make $15 mill and get good reviews. What is really fading is the mid-sized, adult movies with star power and a solid budget and marketing behind it. This fall, we have Hustlers, Ad Astra, Ford v Ferrari, Just Mercy, and Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood are the movies that hit the boxes of big stars + real marketing campaign + over $20m budget + wide release. So those are the ones I am tracking very closely. Also Last Christmas a studio comedy and, yes, Cats as a studio musical, and Knives Out as an ensemble mystery. I am worried about Disney dominating. But I am even more concerned by a movie like the Irishman, which would have made American Gangster numbers 12 years ago, getting released on Netflix. The worry is when Disney decides to exile Ford v Ferrari or Ad Astra to Disney Plus.

To be fair, those have been fading for a decade now (in part because of the direction the industry is moving, in part because the old school definition of a movie star doesn't really exist anymore - and most of the people who still fall under that definition are getting older with no one really to replace them).

Edited September 7, 2019 by filmlover

[TMP]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Correct, but I am assuming that it probably would have been cut down to size if it had to be released in theaters. Some people will say that Marty getting to do his full vision is a good thing, and that they're glad Netflix exists to let him do a 3.5 hour movie....but idk, even a genius needs a firm hand sometimes frankly.

Maybe this is his Once Upon a Time in America?

[Cmasterclay]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

To be fair, those have been fading for a decade now (in part because of the direction the industry is moving, in part because the old school definition of a movie star doesn't really exist anymore - and most of the people who still fall under that definition are getting older with no one really to replace them).

Sure, but a decline isn't death, and I'm worried the rise of streamers and a crowded out market could soon lead to a death spiral for my favorite kind of movie. Especially with the new streaming apps in play.

Edited September 7, 2019 by Cmasterclay

[Alli]

Disney isn't doing anything special. All their successful movies are remakes of their biggest hits. Their original movies all failed. The other studios still have somewhat of a success with their original films.

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Sure, but a decline isn't death, and I'm worried the rise of streamers and a crowded out market could soon lead to a death spiral for my favorite kind of movie. Especially with the new streaming apps in play.

As long as studios and companies are greedy, streaming won't take over cinemas. I'm betting streaming will be plagued with the same problems as cable in a few years time 

[charlie Jatinder]

+20-22%

[TwoMisfits]

9 hours ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

WTF. Ugly evening. 26mn. 

 

IT & Nun doubled its 17:00 reported number, IT 2 was just able to 1.5x.

 

So, did the presales strike?  Turns out those subscribers all wanted the prime times:)...so, no one walked up b/c they all already had their AMC and Regal tickets in hand...

[Cmasterclay]

All I know is that with the reviews it got and the pedigree, I would have seen something like High-Flying Bird opening weekend.  Still haven't seen it yet. Sure the same thing will happen for Two Popes, Marriage Story, even Irishman. Shit, took me three weeks to even watch Roma. I just can't get hyped to watch a new movie on the TV (even if watching on TV is how I discovered so many of the best movies ever from before I was born, obviously). Not my kind of movie experience at all. Need my seat, need my previews, etc.

[cookie]

Mid-budget movies need to spend more than they already cost in prints and advertising if they hope to succeed with limited returns internationally. The market requires them to be sold like event movies, but at best only a section of said market will treat them as such.

Edited September 7, 2019 by cookie

[Johnny Tran]

2 hours ago, RealLyre said:

outside of superhero movies and animation, Nostalgic reboots/remakes have been carrying the box office this decade. Disney remakes, Jurassic Park, new Star Wars etc. 

 

 

Because people don't want to see something new.  They just want to bring their kids to something so they'll shut up for two hours. Hey,  it's true that's how most parents are these days. 

 

Couples sit around and watch Netflix. 

[BoxOfficeZ]

In retrospective 90m OW for a horror sequel is pretty good considering I predicted IT1 to open with 60m for its OW. 

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Correct, but I am assuming that it probably would have been cut down to size if it had to be released in theaters. Some people will say that Marty getting to do his full vision is a good thing, and that they're glad Netflix exists to let him do a 3.5 hour movie....but idk, even a genius needs a firm hand sometimes frankly.

Reportedly Marty has gone considerably over budget ($125m - now $160m) for The Irishman just as he did for Hugo ($100m to $160/$170m) .  That experience with Hugo is one of the reasons he wasn't getting his film budget approved by studios in the first place and went to Netflix.  (Silence also didn't help)  I'm not sure there's a hand out there firm enough or rather one Scorsese would agree to work under.