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JOKER OS THREAD // 738.5M OS // 1.074B WW

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1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

It was fun while it lasted but I think we should accept the truth that Joker most likely won't be the first R movie to cross 1B. It made 77M OS this weekend and unless I'm mistaken that's a pretty steep drop. :(

Not really. Bout 38%. Actuals will probably add a couple million.

Still think 950 is the ceiling, but this drop is still VERY good.

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8 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

It was fun while it lasted but I think we should accept the truth that Joker most likely won't be the first R movie to cross 1B. It made 77M OS this weekend and unless I'm mistaken that's a pretty steep drop. :(

Are you being Sarcastic ? The so called Steep drop was always expected as Maleficent was fierce competition that did $153M globally in many markets. But a $100M+ global weekend For Joker on its third weekend is massive, especially when the movie is standing at a whooping 737M. For example Alldin in its 3rd weekend was standing at $630M after a $90M global third weekend.

Edited by Manny G
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Thanks everyone. I'm not being sarcastic. I wanted Joker to become first R to make 1B and w/o China no less. I believe it would be too big to ignore by AMPAS in that case. But this is a staggering success anyway you slice it, far above optimistic expectations. Joaquin for the win!

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10 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Not really. Bout 38%. Actuals will probably add a couple million.

Still think 950 is the ceiling, but this drop is still VERY good.

Just normal run from this point onwards takes it beyond 950m. I dont see that as ceiling. Movies tend to have good late legs. Toy story looked like missing 400m after 3rd weekend and ended up with 435m. Even Captain Marvel "looked" like missing 400m after its early drop. OS its running in leggy markets where competition does not matter and Terminator wont matter much except few asian markets and russia(which is not a leggy market anyway). This will make at least 1.5x the 7 day gross os. That should take it close to 700m gross. Domestic it aint missing 300 after this. I think it legs it closer to 1.05B rather than missing 1B at this point.

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5 minutes ago, RJ 95 said:

Also it makes 60m in weekdays lol.

Both of weekdays and weekend exceed 10% of my prediction.

 

It's hold in Europe must be crazy good to achieve this wow.

Yeah, it's held fairly well in most markets, but its European results are the biggest story for me, by far. It seems to have been the perfect non-superhero comic book movie, appealing to markets that don't go crazy for most superhero movies (except the big phenoms like IW and EG), without putting off the ones that go for the crazy CG spectacle. Quite and impressive feat.

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Just now, keysersoze123 said:

Just normal run from this point onwards takes it beyond 950m. I dont see that as ceiling. Movies tend to have good late legs. Toy story looked like missing 400m after 3rd weekend and ended up with 435m. Even Captain Marvel "looked" like missing 400m after its early drop. OS its running in leggy markets where competition does not matter and Terminator wont matter much except few asian markets and russia(which is not a leggy market anyway). This will make at least 1.5x the 7 day gross os. That should take it close to 700m gross. Domestic it aint missing 300 after this. I think it legs it closer to 1.05B rather than missing 1B at this point.

Hope you're right. I'm fearful of its international run hitting a wall soon, round the 650 mark, and domestically, I don't think it will go far beyond 300, unless it recovers next weekend. "Recover" is a weird word to use, for a movie that still dropped less than 50% and making these kinds of numbers, but you know what I mean.

 

I'm just naturally more of a pessimist. :) If I'm surprised, it would be to my delight, trust me. If nothing else, I want the yearly top 10 WW to all be over a billion, which is why I'm pulling for Jumanji as well, despite being very underwhelmed with the previous effort.

 

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For this to miss 600m OS it needs to drop 56% each week and I just calculate if it drop X% where it will landed OS.

50% = 625m

49% = 630.9

48% = 636.4

47% = 642.4

46% = 648.5

45% = 654.8

44% = 661.4

43% = 668.2

42% = 675.4

41% = 682.8

40% = 690.5

 

So what avg drop do you think it will get in next 8 weeks ?

 

P.S I calculate it by combining 77.8m WE and 58.2 Weekdays.

 

 

Edited by RJ 95
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30 minutes ago, RJ 95 said:

For this to miss 600m OS it needs to drop 56% each week and I just calculate if it drop X% where it will landed OS.

50% = 625m

49% = 630.9

48% = 636.4

47% = 642.4

46% = 648.5

45% = 654.8

44% = 661.4

43% = 668.2

42% = 675.4

41% = 682.8

40% = 690.5

 

So what avg drop do you think it will get in next 8 weeks ?

 

P.S I calculate it by combining 77.8m WE and 58.2 Weekdays.

 

 

Always look at weekly gross for OS markets as different markets have 3/4/5 day weekends. I think floor for OS is 675m. But it can go higher. I am confident.

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5 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Always look at weekly gross for OS markets as different markets have 3/4/5 day weekends. I think floor for OS is 675m. But it can go higher. I am confident.

Of course I know, that's actually weekly gross last week sunday update in 354.4 and now in 490.3. so I just use 136m and use X% drop then see result for next 8 week. 

At least 625m already safe.

Edited by RJ 95
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