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JOKER OS THREAD // 738.5M OS // 1.074B WW

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10 minutes ago, martin said:

Wait....tros dont have china? How can disney mess thing up ?

Technically they have China, but actually they don't have it because chinese hate Star Wars and it won't make a penny there again. There's no reason to release it there at all, they won't even cover print/distribution.

Edited by Firepower
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So I wonder how it only drop 38% last week despite Japan and Brazil still going strong, then if you look Joker drop in Europe it's still amazing in 2nd weekend.

 

Italy 39%, Portugal 21%, Netherlands 28%, Norway 33%, Finland 21%, UK 44%, France 32%, Switzerland 9%, Turkey 47%, Greece 38%, Russia 55%, Ukraine 48%, Slovakia 36%, Czech Republic 17%, Bulgaria 46%, Romania 29%, Poland 30%, Hungary 33%, and Germany 16%. 

 

I mean only Turkey, Ukraine, Russia and Bulgaria drop above 45%. No wonder it can still hold 38% despite bad drops in most parts of Asia and South America.

Edited by RJ 95
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2 hours ago, RJ 95 said:

So I wonder how it only drop 38% last week despite Japan and Brazil still going strong, then if you look Joker drop in Europe it's still amazing in 2nd weekend.

 

Italy 39%, Portugal 21%, Netherlands 28%, Norway 33%, Finland 21%, UK 44%, France 32%, Switzerland 9%, Turkey 47%, Greece 38%, Russia 55%, Ukraine 48%, Slovakia 36%, Czech Republic 17%, Bulgaria 46%, Romania 29%, Poland 30%, Hungary 33%, and Germany 16%. 

 

I mean only Turkey, Ukraine, Russia and Bulgaria drop above 45%. No wonder it can still hold 38% despite bad drops in most parts of Asia and South America.

Also no big released next week,so hoping for a better hold this weekend....

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13 minutes ago, grim22 said:

This feels like a low end estimate for OS in the article

 

 

Home Entertainment & TV Revenue  
Domestic Home Entertainment 75M
International Home Entertainment 71M
Domestic Free TV 25M
Domestic Pay TV 35M
International TV 124M

 

Not sure why is TV deal estimate is quite bigger than significantly bigger 2018 movies say  the 400m+/ 630M outside China Jurassic World:

https://deadline.com/2019/03/jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom-raptorous-revenue-results-2018-most-valuable-blockbuster-tournament-1202583316/

 

184M for Joker vs 164M for Jurassic World 2 & Aquaman, 170M for Incredible 2/Black Panther.

 

First year with a reverse in term or going back up in home ent revenues by theatrical dollar could be coming up at deadline.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Barnack said:
Home Entertainment & TV Revenue  
Domestic Home Entertainment 75M
International Home Entertainment 71M
Domestic Free TV 25M
Domestic Pay TV 35M
International TV 124M

 

Not sure why is TV deal estimate is quite bigger than significantly bigger 2018 movies say  the 400m+/ 630M outside China Jurassic World:

https://deadline.com/2019/03/jurassic-world-fallen-kingdom-raptorous-revenue-results-2018-most-valuable-blockbuster-tournament-1202583316/

 

184M for Joker vs 164M for Jurassic World 2 & Aquaman, 170M for Incredible 2/Black Panther.

 

First year with a reverse in term or going back up in home ent revenues by theatrical dollar could be coming up at deadline.

 

 

 

 

They say WB is better than most at the home entertainment deals. We'll when they do an actual breakdown. It's weird that they did this one before final numbers.

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2 hours ago, Barnack said:

First year with a reverse in term or going back up in home ent revenues by theatrical dollar could be coming up at deadline.

In general as the era of streaming begins, I wonder if this way to account for home entertainment will not become outdated. Corporations will use movies and TV shows to attract subscribers, not directly get sales.

 

For example when HBO Max pays "billions of dollars" (!) for Warner TV's Big Bang Theory, it is obviously fantastic for the main actors, Chuck Lorre and whoever else gets a share of the revenue. But a lot of it is just money moving around AT&T accounts (and that is why nobody else could realistically compete).

Edited by MrGlass2
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Taiwan

 

10/3-10/6: NT$ 93m
10/7-10/13: NT$ 132m
10/14-10/20: NT$ 54m 

 

as of 10/20 total at NT$ 279,747,523

 

Joker still has a chance to become the 4th DC movie to cross NT$ 300m (Aquaman 470m, TDKR: 360m WW: 333m). MAL2 didn't open well, but Gemini Man opens today and may hurt its chance, because Ang Lee has homecourt advantage here~

 

Taiwan is your basic Marvel Colony, Aquaman over-performed, very much like, in a smaller scale, in mainland China. Joker, being DC cbm, no action/CGI to speak of, and not a date movie...its run so far is quite respectable actually.  

 

Edited by teard1972
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Thursday - Japan

 

Joker drop 26.5% from last week. It's biggest drop so far in it's run. Other movie in top ten actually drop around the same ballpark (18-35% ).

So still a normal drop but rather than closing in to 20% drop it's actually getting closer to > 30% drop,  which is a normal drop for SH movie in Japan. Tomorrow it will try surpass $ 30m.

 

Good news is total seats for Joker increase by 14.5% tomorrow, so it may soften it's drop and increase better than 20% like last weekend.

 

Edited by RJ 95
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Joker OS update from Screendaily 521.9m (+30.6m from last Sunday update). With domestic until Wednesday, total should be 778.1m. 

After this weekend should be in 835-845m and OS around 560-570m.

 

https://www.screendaily.com/box-office/can-terminator-dark-fate-out-muscle-maleficent-2-at-international-box-office/5144125.article

Edited by RJ 95
Changing prediction, miscalculated.
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1 hour ago, RJ 95 said:

Joker OS update from Screendaily 521.9m (+30.6m from last Sunday update). With domestic until Wednesday, total should be 778.1m. 

After this weekend should be in 840-855m and OS around 565-575m.

 

https://www.screendaily.com/box-office/can-terminator-dark-fate-out-muscle-maleficent-2-at-international-box-office/5144125.article

 

840-855 seems little bit out of reach due to the OS weekend jumping 45-55 in your numbers. The realistic target is 815-820M

Edited by Geo1500
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17 minutes ago, Geo1500 said:

 

840-855 seems little bit out of reach due to the OS weekend jumping 45-55 in your numbers. The realistic target is 815-820M

778+ 2m Thu Dom+ 15 WE Dom + 43m WE OS (45% drop from LW) = 838 

Ok, just miss by 2m.

 

There are chance Screendaily underestimate it , Joker may drop better than 45% drop from last weekend and lastly I even take conservative number for domestic Thu-Sun.

 

Also from your prediction with 815-820m by the end of WE, do you expect it will drop 72% from last International weekend ?

77.8 to 22m 

Edited by RJ 95
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